210 likes | 224 Views
National Climate Monitoring Products: Promoting NCMP and Testing the Software for Tanzania Data Presented by: Ladislaus Chang’a Meeting of the Expert Team on National Climate Monitoring Products MARAKESH, MOROCCO 5 – 7 MARCH 2018. Contents. Introduction
E N D
National Climate Monitoring Products: Promoting NCMP and Testing the Software for Tanzania Data Presented by: Ladislaus Chang’aMeeting of the Expert Team on National Climate Monitoring ProductsMARAKESH, MOROCCO5 – 7 MARCH 2018
Contents Introduction A brief about TMA Statement on the Status of Tanzania Climate in 2017 Results of the Testing of the Improved Software Impacts of NCMP and its Software General Observation and Recommendation Tanzania Meteorological Agency
Introduction • We have been promoting NCMP within our Agency particularly for Staff responsible for Climate Monitoring and staff at the Research Section • We have mentioned and promoted NCMP to colleagues within the Region as an important steps in facilitating consistent climate monitoring • We have started introducing it in the Climate Monitoring and Prediction for the Students taking BSc Meteorology at the University of Dar es Salaam – One of the examination Questions is on NCMP – with the purpose of raising awareness • We are Planning to use NCMP in preparation of the TMA Statement on the Status of Tanzania Climate Tanzania Meteorological Agency
Status of Tanzania Climate in year 2017 • The year 2017,was characterized by warmer temperature anomaly of 0.70C above the long term (1981-2010) mean
On 26 October 2017, Kibaha Station recorded 177.9 mm of rainfall, the highest ever 24 hours rainfall since the establishment of the Station On 9 May 2017, Tanga recorded 316 mm of rainfall, the Highest ever, 24 hours rainfall since the Establishment of the Station. Severe weather and extreme climatic eventsand their impacts UDART Offices flooded at Jangwani area on 25 October 2017 due to heavy rain
Results of Testing of the Software • We first run the software for 18 stations and later omitted four stations with a lot of missing data • The stations had a lot of missing data in Temperature (maximum and Minimum) • The Baseline Period used in 1981 - 2010 • The Variogram Graphs • Trend in the Percentage of Warm Days • Trend in the Percentage of Warm Nights • Trend in the Percentage of Cold Nights Tanzania Meteorological Agency
NCMP-TMA Tanzania Meteorological Agency
NCMP-SPI Tanzania Meteorological Agency
NCMP_PrAn Tanzania Meteorological Agency
NCMP_TX10p Tanzania Meteorological Agency
Arusha Station Tanzania Meteorological Agency
Arusha Station Tanzania Meteorological Agency
Arusha Station Tanzania Meteorological Agency
Application and Impacts • NCMP Software is playing a vital role in Data Quality Control, especially in the region where the is a big challenge of data gaps, missing data. The Software provide a quick and robust mechanism to identify gaps, missing data and suspicious/outliers in the Time series • NCMP Software help in promoting Research on climate and climate change by providing a comprehensive analysis of the trends of the data set • We used NCMP Software to prepare and publish a Paper on Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Extreme Indices in Tanzania: Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2017, 7, 525-539 Tanzania Meteorological Agency
General Observation and Recommendation • The Programme run very fast • Handling stations with a lot of missing seem to be among the critical challenge in running the software. It is important to determine the Threshold of number of years of missing data that the station can not be included in the computation • There are challenges associated with computation of Variogram. The challenges may be associated with having many missing data in the dataset • It will be useful to document all Errors and Warnings generated during running of the software and include explanation and interpretation of the potential problems and way to fix It • More Guidance on computation and interpretation of the Variogram Graphs is needed to facilitate enhance usage • To continue promoting NCMP and the use of the software in climate Change studies by involving NMHS staff and students • Use NCMP in Preparation of the report on the Status of Climate Tanzania Meteorological Agency