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Ukrainian Energy Sector: Challenges, Drivers, and Long-term Development Pathways

This research examines the current state of the Ukrainian energy sector and models its long-term development, addressing challenges, drivers, and possible pathways. It uses methodological approaches and mathematical modeling to analyze the interdependence and competition within the energy system and the need for robust decision-making.

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Ukrainian Energy Sector: Challenges, Drivers, and Long-term Development Pathways

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  1. Energy Research Institute National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Ukraine National Energy Current State andModeling its Long-term Development Ukrainian energy sector - challenges & drivers of its development, - possible long-term pathways, and Long-term national energy development – methodological approaches and methods of mathematical modeling A Unique Energy and Climate Policy in Open Energy Market: a year after COP 21 Sergii Shulzhenko, PhD, Chief of scientific department mail2ua@gmail.com 25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

  2. Ukraine briefly 2015 Indicators: Population – 45 million; GDP – 90 $ billion (181 in 2013); GNI per capita – 2620 US$ (3789 – in 2013); Energy use – 2.5 toe/capita; Electric power consumption – 3.6MWh/capita; Export / Import (% GDP) – 53 / 55; High Tech Export – 6% of Export

  3. Energy Research Institute National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Primary Energy Reserves NPP Net Installed Capacity, GW (IEA 2014): 1)USA – 99, 2)France – 63, 3)Japan – 42, 4)RusFed – 25, 5)China – 24, 6)South Korea – 21, 7)Germany – 14, 8)Canada – 14, 9)Ukraine – 13.84 Top 10 Producers, % of total DomesticElGen: 1) France – 78.4, 2)Ukraine – 48.6, 3)Sweeden – 42.3 25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

  4. Energy Research Institute National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Energy Consumption in Ukraine 2013, thousand toe

  5. Sustainable risk-free energy development: methodology for robust decisions finding • Interdependence and competition all with all: • intrasystem interdependence and competition among production/import, transformation, transportation, storage, distribution/export and end use technologies and energy products; • intersystem dependence and risk generation for stable existence and development of man-made and environmental subsystems: Energy – Ecology – Economy – Lend-use – Water supply and management – Climate change • Strategic Robust Decisions Finding taking into account adaptiveness and downscaling (for example: Strategic goal – cover electricity demand taking into account season load variations) Water resources Human life standards PrimEnergProd (e.g. coal mining) and processing Demand Economy & Government Lend Use Climate Change

  6. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Levelized Cost of Electricity Production – calculated using diapasons of exogenous variables instead of exact input data Constant expenses – depends from installed capacity (X) Variable and O&M Costs – depend from power load during operation (f) Operation time(could be stochastic) Generating Power(could be stochastic) For each technology installed capacity should be not less then actually used in each period of modeling Generated Power should be absolutely equal to power demand of Integrated Energy System The amount of Electricity produced should be not less the demand for electric energy

  7. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine For each type of Power Plant the time of operation during the year (h) for each modeling period defined as constant (for example – 7000 for Ukrainian NPP at current state) Typical Power Plant Generation Schedule during the typical day, % from installed Power (X) 25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

  8. Power Plant Life Cycle Expenses — discounted cost; — time of construction; — life cycle period; — time of commercial operation; — time of decommissioning; — discount (or interest rate); — variable – depends from power load during operation (f); — capital investment; — O & M; — interest returning; — expenses (“+”) or income (“-”) during decommissioning.

  9. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine To develop a plan about Power Sector development We should know current and future input data, at least production cost of different technologies But in real life We CAN’T predict input data both future and even current Table - Percentage of financing during construction [IEA ElProdCost 2005] 25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

  10. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Practical example for NPP 25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

  11. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

  12. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Projected Costs ofGenerating Electricity, 2010 Edition INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT 25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

  13. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Input data for Natural Gas production in Ukraine Results

  14. Energy production-transportation-conversion-distribution-utilization Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Production A (mining) Imported fuel A Storage B (stock) Transportation A Storage A (Stock) Transformation A->B etc. Transportation B Distribution End Use A End Use B 25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

  15. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine 25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

  16. Energy supply-demand model with energy security restrictions Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) • Maximum fraction of imported fuel from single source; • minimal fraction of energy produced within the country; - balancing variables. * - Ukraine Economy Security Calculation Method, adopted by President’s Order №1159/200023.10.2000

  17. GDP Forecast and Economy Structure

  18. Generation development until 2040

  19. Results

  20. Energy Research Institute National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine • Ukraine National Energy Current State andModeling its Long-term Development • Achieving Low Emission Goals is required essential methodology development: • -nexus between energy and the environment, economic sectors and social sphere • uncertain future externalities, i.e.: regulatory and legal framework of energy markets, regulation of GHG emissions, possible changes in the efficiency of final energy consumption and its structure, operation modes of energy consumption, especially electricity etc • clear but intermittent energy (Wind, PV) – expenses for dispatch, low voltage grid renewabales integration into national level system • Integration of small to medium size storage capacities - electricity battery LET’S SHARE OUR COMMON EXPERIENCE AND HELP EACH OTHER TO AVOID MISTAKES A Unique Energy and Climate Policy in Open Energy Market: a year after COP 21 Sergii Shulzhenko, PhD, Chief of scientific department mail2ua@gmail.com 25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

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