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Lessons Learned 2009 Milk and Feed Prices New England Dairy Conference

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Lessons Learned 2009 Milk and Feed Prices New England Dairy Conference

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    2. Today’s Program Looking ahead to 2010 IL/Midwest/NE advantages Field survey results Alternatives for the future Avoiding bad decisions High forage and by-product rations Strategic feed ingredient selection

    5. Looking Ahead to 2010 Milk prices targeting $13-14 (class III) Forage prices are modest Alfalfa at 90 cent per RFQ point Corn silage at $35 a ton (33% DM) Corn prices appear bullish reaching $4/bu Fuzzy cottonseed is bearish ($270/ton) Soybean meal appears flat ($325/ton) 200,000+ more heifers (> 500 lb) in 2010

    6. Illinois Advantages Forages and corn raised (limiting check book purchases) Farm labor is a major resource Limited growth and low debt Average IL herd size 106 cow (MILC) rBST premium of 55 to 64 cents/cwt Coop patronage refund of $1/cwt Mike Hutjens????

    7. Asking Field Specialists Survey nutritionists (12), educators (5), and veterinarians (5) Rank the top three “good” decisions made by their managers Rank the top three “bad” decisions made by their managers You are invited to participate (I have a form /e-mail: hutjensm@illinois.edu)

    8. Top Three “Good” Decisions 27 points: Forage management 22 points: Feed selection/ration balancing 17 points: Stay the course 16 points: Culling cows 9 points: Grouping 7 points: Milk contracting 5 points: Milk components

    9. Top Three “Bad” Decisions 22 points: Pulling feed/reducing DMI 18 points: Pulling feed additives 10 points: Poor forage/feed choices 9 points: Reducing cow comfort 6 points: Not staying the course 3 points: A.I. and reproduction 3 points: Not contacting banker

    10. Feeding Economics 2010

    11. Feed Benchmarks lb DM $/ lb DM $ / day Forages 28 .06 1.68 Grain energy 10 .07 0.70 By-product 6 .10 0.60 Protein supp 5 .10 0.50 Min/vit/additive 1 .40 0.40 Consulting 0.10 Total 50 3.98

    12. Feeding Economics Feed costs per cow per day $3.98 Feed cost per lb DM $0.08 Milk Production 80 lb 70 lb Feed cost per cwt (80 lb) $4.97 $5.69 Income over feed costs ($14) $9.03 $8.31 Feed efficiency (lb milk/lb DM) 1.60 1.40

    13. Economics of Feed Efficiency (70 lb milk, 8 cent lb DM) Feed efficiency DMI Difference (lb milk/lb DM) (lb/day) (savings/day) 1.20 58.3 66 cents 1.40 50.0 49 cents 1.60 43.8 40 cents 1.80 38.9

    14. Dairy Efficiency Dairy Efficiency: Pounds of fat corrected milk divided by pounds of DM consumed High group, mature cows > 1.7 High group, 1st lactation > 1.6 One group TMR herds > 1.5 Fresh cows (< 21 days) < 1.3 Concern (one group TMR) < 1.3 Example: 75 lb milk / 50 lb DMI = 1.5 3.5% FCM = (0.4324 x lb of milk) + (16.216 x pounds of milk fat)

    15. Milk Yield Targets (1500 lb cow, 3.6% fat) Milk Yield (lb) Feed efficiency 55 1.25 60 1.32 65 1.38 70 1.44 75 1.49 80 1.54 85 1.58 90 1.63 Ohio State University

    16. 2010 Feed Cost Bench Marks

    17. Long Term Impacts in 2010

    18. Long Term Bad Decisions Calving at 23 to 24 months of age $2 per day per heifer (feed costs only) Accelerated calf program 1100 lb more milk in first lactation Getting cows pregnant $2 /day > 120 days open, $8 / 200 days Lower somatic cell count 2 lb more milk per drop in linear score Lame cows 6 lb less milk and 5 X increase culling risk

    19. Cow Responses / Monitoring Change in MUN by 3 units (8 to 12) Change in manure score by one unit (3.0) Change in body condition score by 0.5 (3.0) Change > 3 lb of management level milk Change > 0.2 % milk fat unit Change > 0.1% milk protein unit Change 2 lb of dry matter intake

    20. Mineral Status

    21. Macromineral Recommendations

    22. Microminerals in ppm

    24. Feed Additive Selection in 2010

    25. U.S. Feed Additive Use (Hoard’s Survey of All Herds) 2006 2008 -------------- % ------------ Buffers 41 40 Yeast/yeast culture 28 30 Rumensin 15 21 Niacin 9 11 Probiotics 11 11 Mycotoxin binders 11 14 Methionine 6 9 Anionic products 3 5 Feed bunk stabilizer 2 3 Fermentin 1 1 Don’t use 11 9 Mold Inhibitor in baled hay na 21

    26. Additives Recommended Rumen buffers Yeast culture/yeast products Monensin (Rumensin) Silage inoculants Biotin Organic trace minerals (Se, Zn, Cu)

    27. Hutjens Priority 1. Rumen impact 1a Rumensin 1b Yeast and yeast culture 1c Sodium bicarb/S-carb 2 Silage inoculants 3. Organic selenium, zinc, and copper 4. Biotin

    28. Additives As Needed Propylene glycol Rumen protected niacin Mycotoxin binders Acid-based preservatives Calcium propionate Rumen protected choline Anionic products

    29. By-Products

    30. Feed Val 3 Corn is the base price for energy (3.50 /bu) Soybean meal (44%) is the base price for rumen undegradable protein ($350 /ton) Tallow is the base price for fat/oil ($30/cwt) Limestone is the base price for calcium ($7/cwt) Dicalcium phosphate is the base price for phosphorous ($30/cwt)

    31. By-Product Feeds To Consider Soy hull (10% ration DM) Breakeven = $109; Price = $105 Cotton seed, fuzzy (10% ration DM) Break even = $230; Price = $265 Corn gluten feed (25% ration DM) Break even = $140; Price = $110 fob Wet brewers grain (15 to 20% of ration DM) Break even = $66; Price = $39 Distillers grain (10 to 20% of ration DM) Breakeven = $252; Price = $105 fob

    32. Sesame Program 30 feed commodities Nutrients: NEL RDP d-RUP e-NDF ne-NDF

    33. Sesame By-Product Prices Feed Predicted Actual -------------$ / short ton ---------------- Barley 192 na Corn 216 141 Canola 213 279 Corn gluten feed 186 105 Corn silage 60 35 Cottonseed 235 250 Distillers grain 226 132 Soy hulls 92 145 Alfalfa hay (<40% NDF) 172 180

    34. Corn Grain

    35. Corn Silage

    36. Soybean Meal – 48%

    37. Expeller Soybean Meal

    38. DDGS

    39. Comparing Sesame and Feed Val 3 Feed Sesame Feed Val --------- $ / short ton----------- Corn gluten feed 186 173 Distillers grain 226 331 Soy hulls 92 100 Barley 192 182 Fuzzy cottonseed 235 283

    40. High Forage Diets

    41. Increasing Forage Intake Reduce feed costs Sustainable on-farm resource and quality control Health rumen environment Selection of high yield and high NDF digestible varieties Reduce cereal grain use

    42. Forage Quality Legume/grass > 150 RFQ > NDFD 50% (30 hr) Corn silage > 30% starch > NDFD 55% (30 hr) Silage < 4.5 pH > 4% lactic acid < 2% acetic acid

    44. New York Field Study (Thanks to Dr. Larry Chase) Herd size: 56 to 550 cows 11 herds milk 2x; 5 herds milk 3x Range from 68 to 100+ lb milk/cow/day Milk fat test ranged from 3.4% to 4.1% Milk true protein ranged from 2.9% to 3.3% Herd health data were not collected

    45. Forage, % of Ration DM Most herds were feeding 60% or more of the ration as forageMost herds were feeding 60% or more of the ration as forage

    46. High Forage Key Points (Dr. Larry Chase) Making high forage diets work Adequate and available quantities Consistent, high quality forage Dairy manager and nutritionist buy-in High forage diets don’t work with inconsistent forage quality

    47. Economics of Corn Silage 1400 lb Holstein cow body weight 80 lb of milk with 3.7% fat and gaining 1 lb BW Alfalfa at $150 a ton hay equiv Corn silage at $32/ ton at 33% DM Corn grain at $3.50 a bushel SBM-44% at $350/ton

    48. Economics of Corn Silage (Spartan II Least Cost) ---------- lb DM /cow/day------ Alfalfa 20.0 10.0 5.0 Corn Silage 10.3 22.5 28.9 Corn 15.7 9.7 6.8 SBM 5.1 7.7 9.0 ---------- $ /cow /day------ Feed cost 4.28 4.14 4.08

    49. The Key Number Over 15 lb of dry matter per cubic foot of silage Bags: > 12 lb Bunkers / pile: > 15 Possible goal: > 18

    50. VitaPlus Storage Densities Type Corn Silage Haylage (278 units) (207 units) -------------- lb DM / cubic foot ----------- Bunker 12.2 16.0 Piles 11.0 13.7 10 ft bag 9.8 13.1 9 ft bag 8.6 12.1 8 ft bag 8.1 11.0 12 ft bag 7.0 10.7

    51. Dry Matter Loss as Influenced by Silage Density

    52. One TMR or Multiple TMR

    53. One TMR vs. Two Groups An Economic Consideration 80 lb TMR costs $4.57 per cow @ 51.9 lb DM results in 8.8 cents per lb of DM 60 lb TMR costs $3.63 per cow @ 46.2 lb DM results in 7.8 cents per lb of DM

    54. Economics of One vs. Two TMR 1. Savings with two rations approach is $0.94 Adjusting for lower DMI Savings $0.50 (51.9 lb - 46.2 lb = 5.7 lb DM @ $0.088 / lb) Savings: $0.44 Milk loss when shifting cows (3 lb @ 16 cents) Savings: -$0.04 No additives, RUP/amino acids/fat, age effects, or BCS changes

    55. Grouping Strategies Young /timid cows & older cows (groups 1 &2) Fat cow / lactation group (group 3) Early lactation cows (group 4) Use of expensive ingredients/additives rBST group Staph group Breeding groups: A.I. , bull, PG groups

    56. Multiple Groups With One TMR First lactation/timid and older cows Open, bull breeding, and pregnant cows Low and high somatic cell cows Clean cows and staph cows Herds 25% over the state/breed average

    57. Groups with Multiple TMRs High group and low group BCS < 3.25 and BCS > 3.25 Fresh, open, and pregnant cows Herds over 225 days in milk Optimizing nutritions (protected amino acids, fats/oil, PUFA, protected choline, and niacin) Herds with metabolic challenges/risks

    58. Metabolic Lactation Factors (HOT approach, Mike Allen, MSU) High Cows Low Cows Limiting DMI Gut fill Fermentability Glucose needs High Low Insulin sensitivity Low High BST levels High Low

    59. Grouping Strategies (Allen, MSU) High cows Low cows F:C ratio Concentrate Forage Forage NDFD High Lower Starch ferment High Lower Fat High Lower By-products Lower Higher

    60. Wet Corn

    61. Signs of Mycotoxin Immune suppression (cattle do not respond to disease challenges) Rumen disorders Loose fecal discharges Reduced dry matter intake (over two pounds per cow) Hormonal-like changes (udder development and reduced fertility) No hoof disorders (indirectly maybe)

    62. Mycotoxin Levels DON (vomitoxin) < 6.0 ppm (parts per million) Aflatoxin < 20 ppb (parts per billion) T-2 toxin < 100 ppb Zearalenone < 300 ppb Testing corn for mycotoxins after storage * Cost : $40 / toxin/ sample * Sampling concerns

    63. Corn Grain Dairyland Laboratories, Inc.

    64. Corn Silage Dairyland Laboratories, Inc.

    65. Distillers Grain Vomitoxin Levels (49 samples—Rock River Labs) Less than 5 ppm 20 samples 5 to 10 ppm 16 samples Over 10 ppm 13 samples

    66. Mycotoxin Binders Clay-based compounds such as bentonite, zeolite, and calcium aluminosilicate (50 to 225 gram / cow / day) for aflatoxin Yeast cell wall extracts (also call MOS and glucomannans) are effective when dealing with T-2 toxins, DON, and zearalenone (10 grams / cow / day) May need to double levels or more

    67. Take Home Messages 2010 will be challenging year Make “good” decisions which are the same with $12 or $18 /cwt milk Forages, by-products, and smart feed additive selection are keys Grouping cows can be an economical and healthy strategy

    68. http://www.livestocktrail.uiuc.edu

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