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CLIMATE CHANGE STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONS Post-2012 Negotiations

CLIMATE CHANGE STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONS Post-2012 Negotiations. 29 OCTOBER 2007. BOGOR : Some progress?. Summitry showing results Elements of Bali roadmap clear Linkage of Kyoto Protocol and Convention “tracks” inevitable Idea of a long-term global goal

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CLIMATE CHANGE STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONS Post-2012 Negotiations

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  1. CLIMATE CHANGE STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONSPost-2012 Negotiations 29 OCTOBER 2007

  2. BOGOR : Some progress? Summitry showing results Elements of Bali roadmap clear Linkage of Kyoto Protocol and Convention “tracks” inevitable Idea of a long-term global goal More openness over developing country “contributions”

  3. BALI ROAD MAP for post 2012 agreement • Four core issues: mitigation, adaptation, technology, finance • Plus others: deforestation, impact of response measures, SD PAMs (sustainable development policies and measures), carbon markets • Recognition of non UNFCCC processes?

  4. Questions • Elements of the road map? • 2009 end date? • A single negotiation or two tracks – Kyoto and Convention? • If two, what linkages/conditionalities? • Input from non UNFCCC processes? (G8, MEM, APEC etc)

  5. Ad-hoc Working Group (AWG)

  6. AWG: work programme (a) Analysis of mitigation potentials and ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex 1 Parties (b) Analysis of possible means to achieve mitigation objectives

  7. AWG: work programme (c) • Scale of emission reductions to be achieved by Annex 1 Parties in aggregate and • allocation of the corresponding mitigation effort, and • agreement on their further commitments

  8. AWG: Indicative range for Annex 1 in aggregate • 25 – 40% below 1990 (by 2020) may be discussed at Bali • Iteration between (a), (b) and (c) of work programme

  9. AWG: The Science (1) • IPCC AR4 • To avoid some of the most extreme impacts of climate change, increase in global mean temperature needs to be limited to no more than 2 – 3 deg C • This requires stabilisation below about 560 ppm CO2e

  10. AWG: The Science (2) • 80% chance of staying below 3 deg C if GHG concentrations are stabilised at less than 445ppm CO2e • But with stabilisation at 560 ppm CO2e, there is a 50% chance of exceeding 3 deg C

  11. AWG: The Science (3) To achieve stabilisation at 445-490ppm CO2e would require that by 2020: • Emissions from Annex 1 as a whole were 25 – 40% below 1990 levels, and • There was substantial deviation from baseline for emissions in LA, ME, EA and Centrally-planned Asia.

  12. AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (1) • What does the science suggest that the range should be?

  13. AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (2) Not necessary that all Annex 1 Parties’ commitments are within the indicative range • Comparable effort and equitable burden sharing • Easier/harder for New Zealand than other Annex 1 countries?

  14. AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (3) • Implications of extent of participation and extent of coverage eg. avoided deforestation, bunker fuels, …. • Possible range for international Carbon price

  15. AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (4) Cost to New Zealand • Implications of possible changes to LULUCF rules • Level of sequestration in Kyoto forests around 2020, 2030 • Length of commitment period

  16. AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (5) • Direct cost to New Zealand businesses/households, upper bound: commitment x international Carbon price • Impact on national economic welfare (NZ commitment, international Carbon price, trade effects, …..)

  17. AWG: Possible conditions that could be attached to New Zealand support for a particular indicative range (1) Generic • Very high probability that the final package will achieve stabilisation at the target concentration ie. sufficient coverage of emissions – activities and countries – with sufficient commitment to sufficient reductions

  18. AWG: Possible conditions that could be attached to New Zealand support for a particular indicative range (2) Or specific • Inclusion of as many activities as possible • Participation of all Annex 1 Parties • Flexibility mechanisms are available • Annex 1 mitigation via flex. mechs. is additional to “substantial deviation ….”

  19. AWG: Possible conditions that could be attached to New Zealand support for a particular indicative range (3) • Effects of changes to LULUCF rules taken into account • Indirect trade effects taken into account • Fair burden sharing

  20. Other Issues: Russian Proposal • streamlining inclusion into Annex I • Convention voluntary commitments New Zealand position • supports new agenda item/s for these issues • joining Annex I should be simple; tacit acceptance • Voluntary commitments one of elements in post-2012 considerations

  21. Other issues: Kyoto Protocol 2nd Review • 2nd Review at CMP4; Bali = scope and content • 1st Review inadequate; link to AWG and post-2012 New Zealand position • Basis = best science & other information • Process: prepare during 2008; distinct, clear, time-defined; links to other processes • Scope: LULUCF rules, streamlining A1 inclusion, CDM, nature of commitments (type, length)

  22. Other Issues: Avoided Deforestation (1) • SBSTA 27 agenda item 5: Reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries: approaches to stimulate action • Emissions from deforestation are roughly 20% of global emissions. • Widely recognised as a major area to be addressed in any future global climate change action

  23. Avoided Deforestation (2) • Process to date • In March 2007, Australia and New Zealand co-hosted/funded the second workshop on this issue in Cairns, Australia. • At SBSTA 26 a conclusion could not reached. The draft decision will continue to be negotiated at SBSTA 27 (Bali). • SBSTA 26 invited Parties to make submissions. • Key issues of debate • Scope • Fund • Market based • Other issues • Baselines (local, regional, national), additionality, permanence, leakage, monitoring.

  24. Avoided Deforestation (3) • NZ’s position • Action is needed • Mechanism requires sufficient money to address issue • As such fund idea has weaknesses • Technical issues can be addressed • How does this ‘fit into’ the wider processes? • What implications for emissions reductions targets? • Possible outcomes from Bali

  25. Agriculture: International leadership • NZ Government investing $1M p.a. on international collaboration on agriculture and forestry climate change research • Major first step is establishment of Livestock Emissions and Abatement Research Network (LEARN)

  26. Agriculture: LEARN • NZ establishing website for LEARN • Proposed that NZ act as administrator of LEARN • Exploring possible research secondment programme • Will look to co-host and sponsor future activities under LEARN – workshops, conferences, exchanges

  27. Agriculture: Next steps • GGAA3 – conference to be held in NZ in November this year • NZ sponsoring attendance of developing countries at GGAA3 and inaugural LEARN meeting • At least 20 countries will attend LEARN meeting including: Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Peru, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Mexico, Canada, Ireland, UK, Switzerland, Ukraine, France, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand

  28. Agriculture: Bali • Presentation on Non-CO2 ghgs in Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) • Advertise LEARN and associated activities • Continue to engage with Parties on agriculture

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