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Analysis: ACA Will Trigger Doctor Shortage. Family Practice News, Vol 42, No 20 Montreh Tavakkoli. STUDY METHOD. -Sources: - Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS ) - U.S. Census Bureau - American Medical Association Masterfile -Determined: - # primary care physicians
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Analysis: ACA Will Trigger Doctor Shortage Family Practice News, Vol 42, No 20 Montreh Tavakkoli
STUDY METHOD -Sources: -Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) -U.S. Census Bureau -American Medical Association Masterfile -Determined: -# primary care physicians -# visits/physician
RESULTS -Office visits: -Primary care – constitutes: 46% of all physician visits -977M office visits (2008) 462M were primary care physicians -F>M -Older adults > younger adults -Insured > Uninsured
PROBLEMS -2014/2015: 20M additional primary care visits -Gain in coverage = increased use of services -43,000 additional primary care doctors needed in U.S. to keep pace w/: 1. population growth & 2. aging population -8,000 additional physicians needed in U.S. by 2025 -462M (2008) office visits 565M office visits (2025)
STATES THAT REQUIRE GREATEST INCREASE IN WORKFORCE: (not in order) 1. CALIFORNIA 2. NJ 3. Penn 4. Ohio 5. N. Florida 6. Texas (b/c high # uninsured, low ratio of primary care physicians)
SOLUTION -ACA proposal: 1. increase # of primary care residents 2. Increase training for PA’s & NP’s* (This will only produce 500 additional physicians!) *Physician assistants & Nurse practitioners
