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I) Brief Overview of CMIP6 Slides from Veronica Eyring, Jerry Meehl

I) Brief Overview of CMIP6 Slides from Veronica Eyring, Jerry Meehl II) Recommendations from last year III) Current HighResMIP. CMIP6 Organization. CMIP6 Design. Based on an extensive period (two years) of community consultation

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I) Brief Overview of CMIP6 Slides from Veronica Eyring, Jerry Meehl

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  1. I) Brief Overview of CMIP6 Slides from Veronica Eyring, Jerry Meehl II) Recommendations from last year III) Current HighResMIP

  2. CMIP6 Organization CMIP6 Design Based on an extensive period (two years) of community consultation • Summer 2013 CMIP5 survey and Aspen & WGCM/AIMES 2013 meetings • Initial proposal for the design of CMIP6 (Meehl et al., EOS, 2014). • Feedback on this initial CMIP6 proposal has being solicited until September 2014. • The WGCM and the CMIP Panel have then finalized the CMIP6 design at the WGCM 18th session (October 2014, Grainau) in consultation with the model groups and MIP co-chairs. CMIP Panel (V. Eyring (chair), J. Meehl, B. Stevens, R. Stouffer, K. Taylor) which is responsible for direct coordination of CMIP and overseeing the whole CMIP process. Sub-committee of WCRP’s Working Group of Coupled Modelling (WGCM, co-chairs S. Bony and C. Senior). WGCM Infrastructure Panel (WIP, co-chairs V. Balaji & K. Taylor): Establishes standards and policies for sharing climate model output; puts the data request together technically (M. Juckes).

  3. CMIP6 Design: Scientific Focus • The scientific backdrop for CMIP6 is the WCRP Grand Challenges: • Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity • Changes in Cryosphere • Climate Extremes • Regional Sea-level Rise • Water Availability • Decadal Predictability (pending) • Biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks (pending) • The specific experimental design is focused on three broad scientific questions: • How does the Earth System respond to forcing? • What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? • How can we assess future climate changes given climate variability, predictability and uncertainties in scenarios?

  4. CMIP: a More Continuous and Distributed Organization • (3) CMIP-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) • A handful of common experiments • DECK (entry card for CMIP) • AMIP simulation (~1979-2014) • Pre-industrial control simulation • 1%/yr CO2 increase • Abrupt 4xCO2 run • CMIP6 Historical Simulation (entry card for CMIP6) • Historical simulation using CMIP6 forcings (1850-2014) Standardization, coordination, infrastructure, documentation DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima Experiments) & CMIP6 Historical Simulation to be run for each model configuration used in CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs Eyring et al., GMDD, 2015

  5. 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs Diagnostic MIPs

  6. 21 CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs WGNE Diagnostic MIPs

  7. Jan 1 2015 Oct 2015 April 2015 July 2015 Jan 1 2016 April 2016 July 2016 CMIP6 Timeline WGCM CMIP6 Design Oct 2016 Jan 1 2017 1st draft description of forcings Review forcings descriptions PI/Historical SLCF emissions (S. Smith) Historical SLCF emissions with uncertainties, seasonality, + (S. Smith) Historical GHG emissions to 2014 (B. Andres) = prototype ready Historical land use (G. Hurtt, D. Lawrence) = Pre-industrial ready Historical GHG concentrations (M. Meinshausen) Historical ozone concentrations (M. Hegglin, J.-F. Lamarque) Historical aerosol concentrations (B. Stevens) Solar past and future (K. Matthes, B. Funke) Volcanoes (L. Thomason, T. Peter, B. Luo) Gridding & Harmonization past to future (IAMs) Future GHG concentrations (IAMs) Future emissions (IAMs) Future ozone and aerosol concentrations (M. Hegglin, J.-F Lamarque, B. Stevens) Future harmonized land use dataset (G. Hurtt, D. Lawrence) PI control and idealized model experiments: DECK CMIP6 Historical Simulation ScenarioMIP global model runs Nominal Period of CMIP6 (2015-2020)

  8. CMIP6 Timeline Eyring et al., GMDD, 2015

  9. HighResMIP

  10. Last year’s recommendations from WGNE and responses Minimal Tuning. Make HighResMIP HI model identical to LO except for resolution Moved away from “sensitivity” study construct toward straight intercomparison of high res models Short option. 1950-2050 forced SST run is too intensive as Tier 1 Changed Tier 1 design to accommodate shorter runs Aerosols. Flexibility as far as CMIP6 endorsed prescribed or native aerosols. Allowing flexibility. Prescribed aerosols “recommended” Seamless SSTs. Use a bias correction technique to construct future SSTs Constructing 0.25 future SST data using Mizuta bias-correction approach Low-resolution ocean. Consider coarse-ocean finer-atmosphere Nobody cares but NCAR

  11. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-66, 2016 Manuscript under review for journal Geosci. Model Dev. Published: 12 April 2016 Please comment before 7 June 2016

  12. HighResMIP: Process oriented studies of resolution impact, vs. climate sensitivity, transient response e.g. Tropical cyclones, diurnal cycles topographic effects Tier 1: Historical 1950-2014 run Tier 2: Coupled simulations, transient historical 1950-2050 Tier 3: Future, atmosphere only 2015-{2050,2100}. Bias corrected SSTs.

  13. HighResMIP: Historical-present day forcings

  14. HighResMIP: Historical-present day forcings

  15. HighResMIP: Future Forcings

  16. HighResMIP: Participating models Note: “High res” atmospheres all coarser than 25km. Some as coarse as 60km

  17. QBOi Covered by Quentin Errera

  18. Summary • CMIP6 planning phase is over. Runs begin soon … through 2017 • HighResMIP seems open to and eager for participation at any level by NWP centers • No DECK • Historical runs: increased ensemble of shorter 1979-present runs vs 1950-present is possible • Flexibility on aerosols and other present day forcings • Read and comment on GMD Special Issue paper before June 7 2016!!

  19. CMIP: Understanding past, present and future climate • CMIP is a project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)’s Working Group of Coupled Modelling (WGCM) • Since 1995, CMIP has coordinated climate model experiments involving multiple international modeling teams worldwide. • CMIP has led to a better understanding of past, present and future climate change and variability. • CMIP has developed in phases, with the simulations of the fifth phase, CMIP5, now completed. • Though analyses of the CMIP5 data will continue for at least several more years, science gaps and outstanding science questions have prompted preparations to get underway early for the sixth phase of the project (CMIP6). • CMIP’s central goal is to advance scientific understanding of the Earth system. • CMIP model simulations have also been regularly assessed as part of the IPCC Climate Assessments Reports and various national assessments.

  20. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Experimental Design and Organization Veronika Eyring, Sandrine Bony, Jerry Meehl, Cath Senior, Bjorn Stevens, Ron Stouffer, Karl Taylor (CMIP Panel) 14 December 2015 Please see the CMIP Panel website for additional information and updates: http://www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/wgcm-cmip/about-cmip Contact for questions: CMIP Panel Chair Veronika Eyring (email: Veronika.Eyring@dlr.de) Reference: Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organisation, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 10539-10583, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-10539-2015, 2015.

  21. CMIP Continuity A common suite of experiments for each phase of CMIP provides an opportunity to construct a multi-model ensemble using model output from various phases of CMIP Eyring et al., GMDD, 2015

  22. Routine Benchmarking and Evaluation Central Part of CMIP6 CMIP evaluation tool to produce well-established analyses as soon as model output becomes available e.g., Community-developed ESMValTool (Eyring et al., GMDD, 2015b) and PCMDI metrics package (Gleckler et al., EOS, subm.) - Link to WGNE/WGCM Climate Model Metrics and Diagnostic Panel Similar to Figure 9.7 of AR5 Monsoon Precipitation Intensity and Domain Running along-side the ESGF AR5 Chapter 9 CMIP5 MMM CMIP5 MMM - OBS Similar to Figure 9.7 of AR5 Link to projections Similar to Figure 9.24 of AR5 Similar to Figure 9.5 of AR5 Similar to Figure 9.24 of AR5

  23. Under-Exploited Observations for Model EvaluationObservations for Model Intercomparison Projects (obs4MIPs)WDAC Task Team on Observations for Model Evaluation CMIP6 How to bring as much observational scrutiny as possible to the CMIP/IPCC process? How to best utilize the wealth of satellite observations for the CMIP/IPCC process? • Obs4MIPs has defined a set of technical specifications and criteria for developing observational data sets that are technically aligned with CMIP model output (with common file format, data and metadata structure). • Over 50 datasets that conform to these standards are now archived on the ESGF alongside CMIP model output (Teixeira et al., 2014), including ESA CCI data • Data users have enthusiastically received Obs4MIPs

  24. Status and Outlook CMIP6 Status • CMIP6 Organization and Design finalized • CMIP6 MIP endorsement of April 2015 proposals finalized • Timelines in place for forcing datasets • CMIP6 Simulation Period (2016-2020) • Infrastructure in preparation (including data request) by WGCM Infrastructure Panel (WIP) CMIP6 Participating Model Groups: > 30 using a hierarchy of models CMIP6 Scenarios • New scenarios span the same range as the RCPs, but fill critical gaps for intermediate forcing levels and questions for example on short-lived species and land-use. A central goal of CMIP6 is routine evaluation of the models with observations • Coordinated by the WGNE / WGCM climate diagnostics and metrics panel in collaboration with the CMIP Panel Workshops/meetings • 18-20 October 2015: WGCM-19 (Dubrovnik, Croatia) • 20-23 October 2015: WCRP/FP7 EMBRACE Workshop on CMIP5 Model Analysis and Scientific Plans for CMIP6 (Dubrovnik, Croatia) • 31 Oct - 4 November 2016: WGCM-20 (Princeton, USA) Geosci. Model Dev. Special Issue on CMIP6 (July 2015 - December 2016) • Overview of the CMIP6 Design and Organization (Eyring et al., GMDD, 2015) • Experimental design from all CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs (submission by 31 March 2016) • Description of the CMIP6 forcing data • Description of evaluation procedures (including obs4MIPs) and Infrastructure http://www.wcrp-climate.org/index.php/wgcm-cmip/about-cmip

  25. CMIP6 Special Issue in GMD http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html

  26. CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs Main Criteria for Endorsement • The MIP and its experiments address at least one of the key science questions of CMIP6. • The MIP demonstrates connectivity to the DECK experiments and the CMIP6 Historical Simulation. • The MIP adopts the CMIP modeling infrastructure standards and conventions. • All experiments are tiered, well-defined, and useful in a multi-model context and don’t overlap with other CMIP6 experiments. • Unless a Tier 1 experiment differs only slightly from another well-established experiment, it must already have been performed by more than one modeling group. • A sufficient number of modelling centers (~8) are committed to performing all of the MIP‘s Tier 1 experiments and providing all the requested diagnostics needed to answer at least one of its science questions. • The MIP presents an analysis plan describing how it will use all proposed experiments, any relevant observations, and specially requested model output to evaluate the models and address its science questions. • The MIP has completed the MIP template questionnaire. • The MIP contributes a paper on its experimental design to the CMIP6 Special Issue. • The MIP considers reporting on the results by co-authoring a paper with the modelling groups. * For “Diagnostic-MIPs“ only non-experimental criteria apply

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