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Research in the Non-Profit Housing Sector

Research in the Non-Profit Housing Sector. Overview. BCNPHA data Non-profit housing sector Projections of rental housing demand Projections of core housing need What’s next?. About BCNPHA. Umbrella association for non-profit housing providers 20 years of advocacy, education and support

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Research in the Non-Profit Housing Sector

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  1. Research in the Non-Profit Housing Sector

  2. Overview • BCNPHA data • Non-profit housing sector • Projections of rental housing demand • Projections of core housing need • What’s next?

  3. About BCNPHA • Umbrella association for non-profit housing providers • 20 years of advocacy, education and support • Planning for the future • Research since 2008

  4. Asset Analysis Database • Building details (age, materials) • Housing density • Energy efficiency • Smoke free housing • Board and staff information • Society portfolio size • Operating agreements • Tenant populations • Number and size of units • Land ownership • Assessed property value • Services provided

  5. What has it told us? 55,000 units of affordable, long-term non-profit housing 2,000+ buildings Over700 non-profit housing societies $5+ billion held in land and building assets alone

  6. Majority of the Sector is Small

  7. 50% of Buildings Over 20 Years Old

  8. Expiring units across BC Source: BC Housing

  9. Projections: rental demand and core need • 25 year, scenario-based projections • Non-profit, academic, government partnership • Local, regional, provincial planning

  10. What are the factors shaping our future?

  11. Demographic Drivers: Population growth (BC)

  12. Demographic Drivers: Aging population (BC)

  13. Demographic Drivers: Rental household maintainer rates (BC)

  14. Demographic Drivers: Incidence of core housing need (BC)

  15. Two Future Scenarios • Scenario A: Constant Tenure • Tenure patterns stay constant at 2006 levels through to 2036. • Scenario B: Shifting Tenure • Tenure patterns follow the trend of the preceding decade through to 2036.

  16. Rental housing demand projections to 2036

  17. Rental Housing Demand Projections: BC to 2036

  18. Rental Housing Demand Projections: Age Breakdown (BC)

  19. Regional District Highlights: Absolute Growth in Rental Demand

  20. Regional District Highlights: Relative Growth in Rental Demand (Scenario A)

  21. Core housing need projections to 2036

  22. Core Housing Need Projections: BC

  23. Core Housing Need Projections: Age Breakdown (BC)

  24. Regional District Highlights: Absolute Growth in Core Need

  25. Regional District Highlights: Relative Growth in Core Need (Scenario A)

  26. Now what? • Develop baseline of key housing indicators in BC • Track our progress annually/semi-annually • How many new units per region, per year? • How many units lost per region, per year? • What happens with expired units? • Where do we need housing and for whom? • What needs to be built where, when and for whom

  27. Thank you!

  28. Definitions • Rental Housing Demand: A measure of the number of renter households. • Core Housing Need: A household that does not meet one or more of adequacy, suitability or affordability standards and it would have to spend 30% or more of pre-tax income to pay median rent of local market housing that meets all three standards.

  29. Comparing Market Rental Demand and Core Housing Need

  30. Demographic Drivers: Components of Growth

  31. Method: Step 1

  32. Method: Step 2

  33. Method: Step 3

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