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Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists?

Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists?. Pandora Hope (BMRC) and Ian Foster (DAWA) Acknowledgements: Colin Terry (Water Corp), Andrew Watkins (NCC), Jay Lawrimore (NCDC), Lynda Chambers (BMRC), Peter Powers (BMRC). Outline. ‘Standard’ meteorological climatology

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Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists?

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  1. Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists? Pandora Hope (BMRC) and Ian Foster (DAWA) Acknowledgements:Colin Terry (Water Corp), Andrew Watkins (NCC), Jay Lawrimore (NCDC), Lynda Chambers (BMRC), Peter Powers (BMRC)

  2. Outline • ‘Standard’ meteorological climatology • Observed Trends and Breakpoints • Examples of the issues and responses in various sectors • Available help

  3. Defining the present climate 1961-1990 http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/

  4. Defining the present climate 1961-1990 http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/

  5. Trends – A reason to change the ‘baseline’ definition? Combined global land-surface air and sea surface temperatures (degrees Centigrade) 1861 to 1998, relative to 1961 to1990; University of East Anglia, UKhttp://www.grida.no/climate/vital/17.htm

  6. http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/trends.html

  7. National Climatic Data Centerhttp://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/trends.html

  8. National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorologyhttp://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/

  9. Annual Temperature SWWA Created using “Diagnose”

  10. Summer Temperature SWWA

  11. Early Winter Temperature SWWA

  12. http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/18.htm

  13. National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorologyhttp://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/

  14. Seasonality of SWWA Rainfall Decrease

  15. Early Winter SWWA Rainfall Break-point in time series at 1968/69 NB: IOCI in general uses a breakpoint of 1975/76, which is the breakpoint of the sea-level pressure data in the region

  16. Changes to the ‘baseline’ • WMO suggested 1971-2000, but this was not adopted • Some agencies are using the full period, e.g. NCDC uses 1880-2004 • Many sectors use the time-period most relevant to their purpose

  17. Major System Impacts • 2001 had 2nd worst inflow to Perth dams • 8 year sequence of lowered streamflow to 2005 http://www.watercorporation.com.au/Integrated water supply scheme – source development plan

  18. Changes to Streamflow Probability 177 GL is the mean over 1975-96

  19. Response of Water Corp. • Major desalination of seawater • Recycling of treated wastewater • Better management of dam catchments to improve inflows • Trading for water from irrigation cooperatives

  20. Salt risk and land-useNB: This is an example only. The data is from station data interpolated onto a grid (Jones and Weymouth 1997). There will be differences from maps produced using other methods of interpolation < 900 mm < 900 mm 900-1100 mm 900-1100 mm > 1100 mm 1950-1979 1980-2004 Forestry, Mining Isohyet limits from Colin Terry, maps plotted using NCC gridded rainfall data by Pandora Hope

  21. System Response - Waterlogging Frequency

  22. Wheat Yield Trend Source: ABS state averages

  23. Agricultural Responses • Fewer very wet years may have affected rates of salinity spread • Sowing opportunities tend to occur later • Decreased waterlogging in susceptible areas. This may have improved conditions for cropping in higher rainfall areas • Technology changes have improved productivity despite generally drier years

  24. Tools available • http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/ • Australian Rainman (QDNR, BoM et al) • DIAGNOSE; CD or website (v. large): ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/bmrc/perm/append/install_v3/ • MetAccess (CSIRO et al) • Climate Calculator – Dept Ag • Future projections – IOCI, CSIRO

  25. Conclusions • There have been strong trends in rainfall in Western Australia, causing sectors to re-examine the climate ‘baseline’ • Impacts have been strong in some sectors, and variable in others • There is a range of tools that can help define climatology, opportunities and risks.

  26. Climate Calculator – DAWARisk Charts

  27. Agriculture- Altered rainfall pattern

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