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Northern Hub – the business case

Northern Hub – the business case. Duncan Law 26 June 2012. Why invest in rail – a reminder. Adequate capacity Reliable journeys Reasonable journey times. ECONOMIC GROWTH. Within city regions Between city regions To access international gateways. The economics.

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Northern Hub – the business case

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  1. Northern Hub – the business case Duncan Law 26 June 2012

  2. Why invest in rail – a reminder

  3. Adequate capacity Reliable journeys Reasonable journey times ECONOMIC GROWTH • Within city regions • Between city regions • To access international gateways The economics

  4. The economics – key corridors Identification of economic outputs Identify the economic gap Compare the North GVA per capita to London & South East Value of new specification Service specification for new infrastructure Identify how rail can contribute Options for resolving constraints Connecting business Labour to jobs Moving goods Constraints in meeting service aspirations

  5. The economics – key corridors • Timetable-driven passenger service benefit per unit Generalised Journey Time (GJT) improvement • Crowding benefits per incremental AM peak seat • Freight benefits per incremental freight path to Trafford Park.

  6. The economics – analysis Identification of economic outputs WEBTAG Revenue Value of time Non user benefits Crowding WEBS Agglomeration Labour supply Imperfect competition Value of new specification Service specification for new infrastructure Options for resolving constraints Constraints in meeting service aspirations

  7. The economics – analysis

  8. The economics – Conditional outputs 1. Capacity and Flexibility 2. Carbon Reduction 3. Performance 4. Journey Times 5. Growth Centres in Greater Manchester 6. Connectivity to Deliver Economic Benefits 7. Manchester Airport 8. Trans Pennine 9. North South Links and High Speed Rail 10. Freight Identification of economic outputs Value of new specification Service specification for new infrastructure Options for resolving constraints Constraints in meeting service aspirations

  9. Delivering faster, more frequent services

  10. Funding for Northern Hub - Ordsall Chord

  11. Further funding for Northern Hub

  12. The evolution of the programme BUSINESS CASE SERVICE OUTPUTS INTERVENTIONS

  13. HS2 and the Northern Hub

  14. Manchester Victoria: before…..

  15. ….and after

  16. Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 2b Phase 2a Phase 1 Electrifying across the North West…

  17. …and across the Trans-Pennine route TRANS PENNINE ELECTRIFICATION CORE ROUTE ColtonJunction Neville Hill Depot LEEDS Copley Hill East Junction Micklefield Junction Heaton Lodge Junction MANCHESTER VICTORIA ECML Mirfield East Junction HUDDERSFIELD Phillips Park Junction STALYBRIDGE CORE ROUTE TO BE ELECTRIFIED EXISTING ELECTRIFIED GUIDE BRIDGE Ashburys West Junction EXISTING NON-ELECTRIFIED

  18. Summary • CP4 • Northern Hub • North West Electrification • CP5 renewal and enhancement portfolio • HS2 BUSINESS CASE SERVICE OUTPUTS INTERVENTIONS

  19. Next steps HLOS summer 2012 @networkrailNH

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