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The Albanian SUT, the new tool for higher reliability of National Accounts

Support for the Alignment of Albanian Statistics with EU standards. The Albanian SUT, the new tool for higher reliability of National Accounts. Ledjon Shahini 20 February 2014. Objectives of Activity A2. Supply - Use Table (SUT) 2009 Current values (balanced) Constant values (prices 2008)

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The Albanian SUT, the new tool for higher reliability of National Accounts

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  1. Support for the Alignment of Albanian Statistics with EU standards The Albanian SUT, the new tool for higher reliability of National Accounts Ledjon Shahini 20 February 2014

  2. Objectives of Activity A2 • Supply - Use Table (SUT) 2009 • Current values (balanced) • Constant values (prices 2008) • Symmetric Input-Output Tables (SIOT) 2009

  3. Background: SUT Supply Table Use Table Activities (NACE) Activities (NACE) Intermediate Consumption FD Output ITT Products (CPA) Products (CPA) VA • Imports; • Trade and transport; margins; • Net product taxes; • Household consumption; • Government consumption; • Exports; • Gross fixed capital formation; • Changes in inventories; • Compensation of employees; • Production taxes; • Operating surplus;

  4. Results of Activity A2 • Balanced Supply Use Table at current prices for 2009 and 2008 at A60*P60, A25*P25 and A13*P13 • Not balanced Supply Use Table at constant prices for 2009 at A60*P60 • Symmetric Input-Output Tables for 2009 at 25*25 • Detailed methodological report • A list of improvements to be done

  5. Results: Supply table 2009

  6. Results: Use table 2009

  7. SUTCP: GDP(O &E)

  8. Improvements recommended • Improvement of output and IC breakdown by products; • Compile IC breakdown for activities currently missing (NIPSH, private health and education, transport and insurance); • Improve trade and transport margins by product; • Improve product breakdown for final demand categories (government consumption, travel services); • Compile changes of inventory by products; • Process detailed information on exports and imports of services; • Improve the deflators used for the SUT at constant prices;

  9. Improvements done: Production matrix m >500 n=60

  10. Imports Data for imports of goods and services are taken from customs (reconciled with foreing trade sector) and BoP. Imported goods are treated at CN 8 digit code and Imported services are treated at CPA 2 and 4 digit (depends by specification given). For year 2010 there are 6,748 goods products and 22 services products

  11. Trade & Transport Margin Trade Margin • To estimate trade margin, trade has been divided in Nace rev.1.1 at 2 digit groups (50, 51, 52). • For 50 and 52 data are taken from quarterly surveys on trade enterprises and are at Coicop 4 digit level. • For 51 we don’t have data from quarterly surveys on enterprises. Structure of wholesale trade margin is built using sales and purchases books of enterprises (taken from Tax Authority). Transport Margin • For transport margin we don’t have a specific survey. To distribute transport margin in products is used the structure of expenditure done for transport from enterprises. • In this case is assumed that the product transported is the same as the main activity of enterprises.

  12. Taxes Taxes on imports are treated at CN 8 digit code Taxes on domestic production are treated at CPA 4 digit.

  13. Intermediate Consumption matrix • Data for distribution of IC are taken from SBS and Financial Statements. • Note: In the SBS of 2013 the cost structure is more detailed, but it covers only industries. m=60 & n=60

  14. Final Demand matrixes Exports: Exported goods are at CN 8 digit code and exported services are at CPA 2 and 4 digit (depends by specification). Household Consumption: To estimate Household Consumption the data are taken from HBS at most detailed level (coicop 6 digit, more than 370 products) with GDP (E) adjustments. Government: For Government consumption data are taken from NA D unit responsible for general government sector.

  15. Final Demand matrixes (cont…) Gross Fix Capital Formation • The information for GFCF is at the level shown in the table. • For machinery and equipment we use the data from imports to distribute et product level. Changes in inventory • Data for changes in inventory are taken from Financial Statements and SBS. • For each of the categories is used an alternative approach to distinguish by products level.

  16. Analyzes V V Discrepancy < 5% - automatic balances 5% < Discrepancy < 10% - manual balances Discrepancy > 10% - back and check all data

  17. SUT constant prices The production and IC matrix For all products (m=518) of output and IC (m=60) a specific deflator is used related as much as possible with the products: Some of the deflator used are: • specific CPI • specific PPI • CCI • Other indices

  18. SUT constant prices (cont…) Imports and Exports Imports: • For most of products is used specified UVI and for other adjusted UVI. • For services is used respective HICP • ex. for year 2010 there are 6,747 goods imported and 27 services. For 2117 (which cover 83 % of total imports) is used specific UVI and for the rest is used adjusted UVI. Exports: • For goods is used Export price Indexes. • In the cases where isn’t a specific index is used a grouped index • For services is used respective CPI

  19. SUT constant prices (cont…) Household & Government Consumption in Constant Prices Household To estimate Household Consumption in constant prices for each of products is used CPI at COICOP 4 digit. Results are reconciled with GDP (E). Government To estimate Government Consumption in constant prices is used an adjusted deflator from output matrix at CPA 2 digit level.

  20. SUT constant prices (cont…) Gross Fix Capital Formation • For most part of groups are used adjusted deflator from output matrix at CPA 2 digit level. • For machinery and equipment we use the data from imports to distribute et product detailed level and respective UVI as deflator.

  21. SUT constant prices (cont…) Taxes in Constant Prices m  n, this means when a new product is in period t the tax is considered as volume effects and if a product disperse in period t it means that it is price effect. The same procedure is done for all taxes, subsidies and margins only that instead of Cif value are correspondent values.

  22. Analyzes of SUT in constant prices V V Discrepancies in constant prices can be effected from not well specified deflator or because of big changes on structures between two linked years

  23. Future work Compilation of Supply Use Tables allow: • Comparisons of different methods of GDP • Double deflating method of GDP by production approach • Increase quality of National Accounts • Set up regular annual compilation of Supply Use Table • at current prices • at constant prices of previous year

  24. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

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