Global Livestock CRSP Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) Project

1. Global Livestock CRSP Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) Project Climate Expectations and Forecast Information Survey: Preliminary Interim Results Module undertaken in collaboration with Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and the University of Nairobi’s Department of Range Management "Regional Climate Prediction and Applications for the Greater Horn of Africa" project

2. Global Livestock CRSP Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) Project Objectives : 1) To understand current presence of seasonal forecasts, both locally-based and externally generated, among pastoral communities. 2) To assess the current and potential value of seasonal climate forecasts at their current skill levels for pastoralists or segments of the pastoral population . 3) To establish existing avenues of dissemination of climate information among pastoral communities in the region and offer some informed insights as to feasible and effective channels of communication.

3. Global Livestock CRSP Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) Project Method: Two-stage (pre- and post- long rains) survey module fielded among 323 households about forecast information awareness, expectations and behavior complemented by Open-ended interviews with small groups of men and women in each site to identify traditional climate forecasting methods, their strengths and weaknesses

4. Global Livestock CRSP Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) Project Preliminary Findings Awareness of forecasts has increased significantly in the past year, but in absolute terms traditional forecasts continue to dominate. Did you hear a forecast of when the rainy season was expected to begin, and if so, from what source or sources? start heard radio tv paper gov ex ngo trad forecast lr 01 89% 16% 1% 1% 1% 2% 82% sr 00 79% 13% 1% 1% 1% 1% 73% lr 00 55% 7% 1% 1% 1% 0% 53%

5. Global Livestock CRSP Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) Project Preliminary Findings Pastoralists focus mainly on forecasts about the rains’ onset date and volume in their vicinity. Rank the usefulness of the different types of forecasts if they could be provided reliably start end amount here amount away 1 70% 2% 30% 1% 2 23% 17% 51% 10% 3 5% 52% 14% 16% 4 0% 12% 2% 52% not 3% 17% 2% 21% useful

6. Global Livestock CRSP Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) Project Preliminary Findings There is considerable variation across space in pastoralists’ use of and confidence in external forecasts, without any direct correlation to market proximity or educational attainment in the location. Overall confidence level in forecasts broken down by site Trad Ext Trad Ext Overall 77% 23% DG 72% 17% DH 89% 11% KA 90% 7% DI 97% 3% LL 23% 77% FI 97% 10% NG 77% 23% QO NA NA NH 62% 34% WA 73% 27% SM 75% 25%

7. Global Livestock CRSP Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) Project Preliminary Findings Pastoralists express greater confidence in traditional forecasts than in external forecasts. Certain traditional methods instill significant confidence

8. Global Livestock CRSP Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) Project Preliminary Findings from Kenya Those interested in forecasts indicate a need for 4-5 weeks’ lead time, with much variation across sites. Weeks in advance of the season that a forecast needs to be given in order to be useful (mean among those who said it was useful) start date end date amount here amount away overall 4.3 4.3 5.0 3.9 DG 3.3 4.9 3.5 3.6 KA 3.1 2.0 3.1 2.3 LL 2.9 2.6 3.4 3.1 NG 8.1 6.6 9.6 4.0 NH 5.3 4.5 5.5 5.3 SM 2.8 6.3 4.1 4.0

9. Global Livestock CRSP Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) Project Preliminary Findings: Ethiopia A minority of respondents act on rainfall expectations, especially above normal rainfall. The last time you expected a season to be below or above normal, did you do anything different with respect to the following categories? (Percent saying yes, they did something different) herd cultivation household mgmt practices finances Below Above Below Above Below Above All 47% 17% 14% 33% 31% 10% DH 43% 17% 32% 52% 25% 7% DI 3% 0% 0% 0% 7% 3% FI 50% 40% 20% 53% 37% 30% QO NA NA NA NA NA NA WA 90% 20% 7% 27% 52% 0%

10. Global Livestock CRSP Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) Project Preliminary Findings: Kenya A minority of respondents act on rainfall expectations, especially above normal rainfall. The last time you expected a season to be below or above normal, did you do anything different with respect to the following categories? (Percent saying yes, they did something different) herd cultivation household mgmt practices finances Below Above Below Above Below Above all 49% 31% 22% 31% 31% 18% dg 69% 41% 76% 76% 14% 31% ka 20% 33% 0% 0% 33% 0% ll 47% 23% 7% 0% 27% 23% ng 87% 50% 20% 80% 63% 33% nh 10% 7% 3% 0% 0% 10% sm 64% 32% 25% 29% 46% 7%

11. Global Livestock CRSP Pastoral Risk Management (PARIMA) Project Elicited rainfall volume expectations Above normal normal below normal All Kenya 41% 36% 20% DG 25% 39% 36% KA 35% 31% 27% LL 13% 59% 24% NG 51% 33% 13% NH 61% 25% 11% SM 63% 30% 9% DMC-Kenya 25% 40% 35% DMC-Eth 35% 40% 25% All Ethiopia 19% 31% 48% DH 21% 64% 14% DI 0% 0% 100% FI 0% 30% 70% WA 53% 43% 3% Pastoralists’ forecasts differ a lot from official forecasts: more optimistic in Kenya, more pessimistic in Ethiopia. Few were acting on their own expectations.