HOW WELL IS KENTUCKY PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE September 2012

1. HOW WELL IS KENTUCKY PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE September 2012

2. Why College- and Career-Ready Expectations for All? • The Economic Imperative: A high school diploma is no longer enough; now, nearly every good job requires some education beyond high school and all students need to be academically prepared to compete for good jobs in the global economy. • The Equity Imperative: Far too many students drop out or graduate from high school unprepared for success. Students in minority groups drop out and fail to attain postsecondary credentials at much higher rates than their counterparts. • The Expectations Imperative: The bar has been set too low for too long, keeping students from reaching their full potential, closing doors and limiting their post-high school options and opportunities. • What Does it Mean to be College- and Career-Ready?To be college- and career-ready, high school graduates must have studied a rigorous and broad curriculum anchored in the demands of postsecondary and business that is grounded in the core academic disciplines, but also consisting of other subjects that are part of a well-rounded education.

3. THE ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE: A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA IS NO LONGER ENOUGH FOR SUCCESS The changing economy is accelerating the skills mismatch, as careers increasingly require some education/training beyond high school, and more developed knowledge and skills

4. Why College and Career Readiness Is Imperative for Our Economic Future • Employer Expectations: Employers increasingly need their employees to use a broader set of skills than have been required in the past to meet the increasingly complex demand coming from the modernized workplace. • Skills Mismatch: While fifty years ago a large proportion of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less, today only one-fifth of jobs are considered unskilled. The demand for higher skilled workers has increased, while the production of higher skilled workers has remained flat. • International Advantage:Other nations are surpassing the U.S. in improving their educational systems to increase achievement, reduce achievement gaps, and educating themselves as a way to a better economy, while the U.S. remains stagnant. • Personal Benefits: More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment. Educational attainment isn’t just a benefit in the short-term; more education is correlated with larger projections of lifetime earnings at every level of the pipeline.

5. Employer Expectations: Education and Training and Requirements Over Time Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. ww9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf

6. Employer Expectations: Increased Demand for Postsecondary Education and Training Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition. http://www.bls.gov/oco/oco2003.htm

7. Employer Expectations: The Rise of Middle-Skill Jobs High-skill jobs Occupations in the professional/technical and managerial categories. Often require four-year degrees and above Middle-skill jobs Occupations that include clerical, sales, construction, installation/repair, production, and transportation/material moving. Low-skill jobs Occupations in the service and agricultural categories. • Often require some education and training beyond high school (but typically less than a bachelor’s degree), including associate’s degrees, vocational certificates, and significant on-the-job training. Source: Holzer, Harry J. and Robert I. Lerman (February 2009). The Future of Middle-Skill Jobs. Brookings Institution.

8. Employer Expectations: Employment Shares by Occupational Skill Level Source: National Skills Coalition (2010). The Bridge to a New Economy: Worker Training Fills the Gap. http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/assets/reports-/the-bridge-to-a-new-economy.pdf ; National Skills Coalition (2011). State Middle Skill Fact Sheets. http://www.nationalskillscoalition.org/resources/fact-sheets/state-fact-sheets/

9. The Skills Mismatch: Demand for Middle-Skill Workers Outpaces Kentucky’s Supply In 1950, 60% of jobs were classified as unskilled, attainable by young people with high school diplomas or less. Today, 20% of jobs are considered to be unskilled. One result: The demand for middle- and high-skilled workers is outpacing the state’s supply of workers educated and experienced at that level. • 81% of Kentucky’s jobs are middle or high skills (jobs that require some postsecondary education or training). • Yet only 30% of Kentucky’s adults have some postsecondary degree (associate’s or higher). Sources: Carnevale, Anthony P. and Donna Desrochers (2003). Standards for What? The Economic Roots of K-12 Reform. Education Testing Services. http://www.learndoearn.org/For-Educators/Standards-for-What.pdf ; Skills to Compete. http://www.skills2compete.org National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

10. The Skills Mismatch: Jobs Are Going Unfilled 52% of employers reported difficulty in finding the right talent, up from 14% in 2010. This is the highest U.S. percentage reported in ManPower Group’s annual survey’s six-year history. Another 30% of companies, surveyed by McKinsey & Co, said they had job opening for six months or more because of lack of ideal/qualified candidates. Source: ManPower Group. (2011). 2011 Talent Shortage Survey & McKinsey Global Institute (2011). An Economy that Works: Job Creation and America’s Future.www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/us_jobs/index.asp & Bureau of Labor Statistics

11. International Advantage: Increased Competition from Abroad While the benefits of graduating high school college- and career-ready and attaining some postsecondary credential affects each individual student, it also impacts our standing as a nation in an increasingly competitive global economy and workforce. Education attainment and achievement in the U.S. have gone stagnant at a time when the global economy is demanding increased education and more complex skills – and other countries are responding. U.S. students rank 12th in reading, 13th in science, and 24th in math on international testing. Source: OECD, PISA 2009 Database. Statlink – http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932343342

12. International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in High School Graduation Rates Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2011. (All rates are self-reported) http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2008 and 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

13. International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2011. (All rates are self-reported.) http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

14. International Advantage: America’s International Edge is Slipping in Postsecondary Degree Attainment Source: OECD. Education at a Glance 2011. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2011_eag-2011-en ; National Center for Higher Education Management Systems analysis of 2009 American Community Survey. http://www.higheredinfo.org

15. Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and Rates of Employment More education is associated with higher earnings and higher rates of employment. While there may be jobs available to high school dropouts and graduates, they often pay less and offer less security than jobs held by those with at least some postsecondary experience. The link between educational attainment and gainful employment is clear:

16. Personal Benefits: Higher Earnings and Rates of Employment Kentucky Statistics: Total Unemployment: 10%, Mean Income: $28,034 Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2011). Current Population Survey. Figures are based on the total persons in the civilian labor force. http://www.census.gov/cps/data/cpstablecreator.html

17. Personal Benefits: Increased Lifetime Earnings Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf Analysis based on author’s analysis of March 2008 CPS data.

18. THE EQUITY IMPERATIVE: CREATING EQUAL ACCESS AND PREPARATION FOR ALL Far too many students, especially those from disadvantaged backgrounds, drop out or graduate from high school unprepared for real world challenges

19. Achievement Gaps Start Early: Kentucky’s 4th and 8th Grade Achievement Gaps % At or Above Proficient on NAEP Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/

20. Achievement Gaps Are About More than Race: Achievement Gaps Among Other Disadvantaged Populations % At or Above Proficient on NAEP Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress. Analysis of data downloaded from http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/naepdata/

21. Achievement Gaps Continue Through High School: Minority Students Are More at Risk of Dropping Out Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation. Kids Count Data Center. 2010, Teens ages 16 to 19 who are not in school and are not high school graduates by race (Percent). http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/acrossstates/Rankings.aspx

22. Achievement Gaps Continue Through High School: Graduation Rates Source: Education Week (2012). Graduation in the United States. http://www.edweek.org/ew/toc/2012/06/07/

23. Achievement Gaps Continue Into Postsecondary: College Completion Percent of Students Earning a Postsecondary Degree Source: NCES. IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey, analyzed by National Center for Management of Higher Education Systems.

24. THE EXPECTATIONS IMPERATIVE: WE’RE SETTING THE BAR TOO LOW We’ve held students to low and inconsistent expectations for too long. As a result, too few graduates are successful and achieving college and career readiness.

25. Too Many Students Remain Off Track to Success: Of Every 100 9th Graders in Kentucky… Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Student Pipeline - Transition and Completion Rates from 9th Grade to College. http://www.higheredinfo.org

26. Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Students Participating in AP and Exceeding College and Career Readiness Percent of all 12th Graders Participating in Advanced Placement (2011) Source: College Board (2012). AP Report to the Nation. http://apreport.collegeboard.org/sites/default/files/downloads/pdfs/AP_Main_Report_Final.pdf

27. Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Students Meeting College Readiness Benchmark Note: A benchmark score indicates a 50% chance of obtaining a B or higher or about a 75% chance of obtaining a C or higher in the corresponding credit-bearing college courses. Source: ACT (2012). College Readiness Benchmark Attainment by State. http://www.act.org/newsroom/data/2012/benchmarks.html

28. Enrollment in College Does NOT Equal College Readiness in Kentucky Percentage of Kentucky’s students in two-year and four-year institutions in the requiring remediation Source: http://cpe.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/B42243CB-D19A-4EC4-AD34-ECF2900D51B1/0/Dev_needs_2006_20090605.pdf

29. Too Many Students Are Not College and Career Ready: Retention Rates Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (2008). Retention Rates - First-Time College Freshmen Returning Their Second Year ; Graduation Rates. http://www.higheredinfo.org/

30. Desire for High Expectations: The Majority of Graduates Would Have Taken Harder Courses Knowing what you know today about the expectations of college/work … Would have taken more challenging courses in at least one area Math Science English Source: Peter D. Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies (2005). Rising to the Challenge: Are High School Graduates Prepared for College and Work? Washington, DC: Achieve.

31. THE SUPPORT: STAKEHOLDERS RECOGNIZE THE NEED FOR ACTION Research and polling demonstrates that students, teachers, parents, and the general public are dissatisfied with the status quo – and want to do something about it.

32. The Public on College and Career Readiness To really get ahead in life, a person needs more than just a high school education. 87% To really get ahead in life, a person needs at least some education beyond high school, whether that means university, community college, technical or vocational school. 89% Source: Achieve (2010). Achieving the Possible: What Americans Think the College and Career-Ready Agenda. http://www.achieve.org/files/AchievingThePossible-FinalReport.pdf

33. Parents on College and Career Readiness Source: Civic Enterprises (2008). One Dream, Two Realities: Perspectives of Parents on America's High Schools. http://www.futurereadyproject.org/sites/frp/files/onedream.pdf

34. Students Overwhelmingly Want to Succeed and Attend College Source: Middle Schools Poll, Prepared for the National Association of Secondary School Principals and Phi Delta Kappa, 2007; Civic Enterprises, The Silent Epidemic: Perspectives of High School Dropouts, 2006; Boys & Girls Clubs of America/Taco Bell Foundation for Teens, Teen Graduation Crisis Survey, 2009. • The vast majority of students intend to go on to college and do not expect to drop out of high school: • 93 percent of middle school students report there is “no chance” they will drop out in high school. • 94 percent of high school students say that they are planning to continue their education after high school either at a two- or four-year institution. • 95 percent of teenagers report that graduating from high school is “critical to their future success.”

35. Graduates Consistently Regret Not Having Worked Harder – Or Having Been More Challenged – in High School Source: College Board (2011). One Year Out: Findings From A National Survey Among Members Of The High School Graduating Class Of 2010. http://www.collegeboard.org/OneYearOut

36. Employers See the Value of Education – and the Knowledge and Skills Gaps in Their Recent Hires • More than three in four business leaders believe that increasing postsecondary completion will have an extremely or very positive impact on the U.S. economy (79%) and workforce productivity (76%). • Executives also recognize increasing postsecondary experiences could affect both the success of their company (75%) and their company’s ability to hire and retain employees with the necessary skills and knowledge (75%). 4-yearCollege Source: Corporate Voices for Working Families & Civic Enterprises (2011). Across the Great Divide: Perspectives of CEOs and College Presidents on America’s Higher Education and Skills Gap.www.civicenterprises.net/pdfs/across-the-great-divide.pdf & The Conference Board, Corporate Voices for Working Families, ASTD, SHRM (2008). The Ill-Prepared U.S. Workforce: Exploring the Challenges of Employer-Provided Workforce Readiness Training. www.shrm.org/Research/SurveyFindings/Articles/Documents/BED-09Workforce_RR.pdf

37. Educators Support Major Elements of the College- and Career-Ready Agenda High school is not preparing students for the workforce It is important for all students to have one year or more of postsecondary education to be prepared for a career Clearer standards would make a strong or very strong impact on student achievement Common standards would have a strong or very strong impact on student achievement Sources: MetLife (2010). The MetLife Survey of the American Teacher. www.metlife.com/assets/cao/contributions/foundation/american-teacher/MetLife_Teacher_Survey_2010.pdf & Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Scholastic (2010). Primary Sources: America's Teachers on America's School. www.scholastic.com/primarysources/pdfs/Scholastic_Gates_noapp_0310.pdf

38. Educators Support Major Elements of the College- and Career-Ready Agenda 10% Strongly Source: Achieve (2012) Growing Awareness, Growing Support: Teacher and Voter Understanding of the Common Core State Standards & Assessments. http://www.achieve.org/growingawarenessCCSS

39. THE SOLUTION: STATE-LED EFFORTS TO CLOSE THE EXPECTATIONS GAP All students deserve a world-class education that prepares them for college, careers and life.

40. The College- and Career-Ready Agenda

41. Kentucky’s Commitment to Closing the Expectations Gap to Date • In 2006, Kentucky adopted K-12 academic standards in math and English aligned with college- and career-ready expectations. • In 2006, Kentucky raised their high school graduation requirements to the college- and career-ready level. These requirements first took effect for the Class 2012. • In 2007, Kentucky put a policy in place requiring all 11th graders to take the ACT. • While Kentucky does not have an accountability system that fully incorporates the full range of college- and career-ready indicators, the state does utilize a number of critical indicators in their reporting and accountability systems. • Kentucky adopted the Common Core State Standards in May 2010. • Kentucky is a participating state in the Partnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers (PARCC), a consortium of states working to develop a common assessment system using Race to the Top Common Assessment funds. • Kentucky is a Lead State Partner in the development of the Next Generation Science Standards.

42. How Kentucky Can Continue to Build on its Momentum… • …Realize the promise of the Common Core State Standards by implementing them fully and successfully, taking into consideration the related curricular and policy changes. • …Closely monitor which students are completing the college- and career-ready curriculum, and which are opting out. • …Remain committed to the goals of PARCC and developing and administering a next-generation, computer-based assessment system anchored by college- and career-ready tests in high school that will let students know if they are ready for college-level coursework and measure the full range of the Common Core State Standards. • …Continue to make progress on the state’s data collection efforts, particularly around making student data available to relevant stakeholders and linking K-12 and postsecondary student-level data. • …Continue to improve upon the state’s K-12 accountability system to determine how it can fully reward measures of college and career readiness, in alignment with the state’s standards and course requirements.

43. HOW WELL IS KENTUCKY PREPARING ALL STUDENTS FOR COLLEGE, CAREERS AND LIFE September 2012