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Arkes et al. (1981) Doctors given a case history to read Is it disease A or disease B? Group 1 - told nothing about real diagnosis Group 2 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease A Group 3 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease B Result: probability estimates were higher for
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Arkes et al. (1981) • Doctors given a case history to read • Is it disease A or disease B? • Group 1 - told nothing about real diagnosis • Group 2 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease A • Group 3 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease B • Result: probability estimates were higher for • “correct” diagnosis • So: Hindsight Bias • Hindsight bias happens when you warn people • to avoid it • It does not happen when subjects don’t believe • the outcome information
