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Critical perspectivs on management Complexity and control

Critical perspectivs on management Complexity and control. Ole Hanseth. Kompleksitet og IKT. Kontinuerlig økende – tradisjonelle metoder funker ikke!

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Critical perspectivs on management Complexity and control

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  1. Critical perspectivs on managementComplexity and control Ole Hanseth

  2. Kompleksitet og IKT • Kontinuerlig økende – tradisjonelle metoder funker ikke! • Eks: Internet, 2200 (700-3600) integrerte applikasjoner i OUS (tilsvarende i DNB), eResept + kjernejournal ++ (samhandlingsref.), Pan-European eGovernement Solutions, SAP i store organisasjoner, ..… • NAV • UK: Kastet bort 130 milliarder (!!) på eHelse-prosjekt

  3. Ultra Large Scale Systems Ultra-Large-Scale (ULS) systems (will push far beyond the size of today’s systems and systems of systems by every measure: • number of technological components of various kinds; • number of people and organizations employing the system for different purposes; • number of people and organizations involved in the development, maintenance and operations of the systems; • amount of data stored, accessed, manipulated, and refined; and • number of connections and interdependencies among the elements involved. ULS systems will change everything; that ULS systems will necessarily be decentralized in a variety of ways, developed and used by a wide variety of stakeholders with conflicting needs, evolving continuously, and constructed from heterogeneous parts. Further, people will not just be users of a ULS system; they will be elements of the system. The acquisition of a ULS system will be simultaneous with its operation and will require new methods for control. These characteristics are emerging in today’s systems of systems; in the near future they will dominate. ULS systems presents challenges that are unlikely to be addressed adequately by incremental research within the established paradigm. Rather, they require a broad new conception of both the nature of such systems and new ideas for how to develop them. We will need to look at them differently, not just as systems or systems of systems, but as socio-technical ecosystems. http://www.sei.cmu.edu/uls/

  4. Global CEO & Leaders Study Results • Escalation of complexity: The world’s private- and public-sector leaders believe that a rapid escalation of “complexity” is the biggest challenge confronting them. They expect it to continue—indeed, to accelerate—in the coming years. • Not Equipped to Respond: They are equally clear that their enterprises today are not equipped to cope effectively with this complexity in the global environment. • Creativity is Key: Finally, they identify “creativity” as the single most important leadership competency for enterprises seeking a path through this complexity. This study is based on face-to-face conversations with more than 1,500 chief executive officers worldwide. Released May 2010

  5. Theoretical appraoches • Risikosamfunnet & refleksiv modernisering • Miljø, økonomi • Normal Accidents Theory • Kjemiske fabrikker, atomkraft, flykontroll • Interaktiv kompleksitet og tette koplinger • Kompleksitets-teori: hvordan orden oppstår • Biologiske systemer (bikube, maurtue, ..) • Økonomi: etablering av de-facto standarder

  6. Kompleksitet • = number of types of components and links + speed of change • Bi-effekter • Forplanter seg: • selv-forsterkende mekanismer, domino-effekter, bomerang-effekter • spredning av standarder, Alt-inn • Arabiske våren • Finans-krisen • …

  7. Kompleksitet og styring • Økt kompleksitet • => økt riskiko => mindre kontroll/styring • Komplekse systemer kan ikke styres – må unngå å skape den!! (”Aiming at perfect order is the safest to total chaos”) • Integrasjon! • Styring: ovenfra/utenfra – eller nedenfra/innenfra? • Complex Adaptive Systems

  8. Management • What managers do • Wikipedia: • Management in all business and organizational activities is the act of getting people together to accomplish desired goals and objectives using available resources efficiently and effectively. Management comprises planning, organizing, staffing, leading or directing, and controlling an organization (a group of one or more people or entities) or effort for the purpose of accomplishing a goal. Resourcing encompasses the deployment and manipulation of human resources, financial resources, technological resources and natural resources.

  9. IT Management • Project/system owner • Project Management • IT Processing Department • Principles • Closed hierarchical organization • Decisions, control • Tools: planning, milestones, checking progress, ..

  10. Governance • What governments do. Others? • Wikipedia: • Governance is the act of governing. It relates to decisions that define expectations, grant power, or verify performance. It consists of either a separate process or part of management or leadership processes. These processes and systems are typically administered by a government. • In the case of a business or of a non-profit organisation, governance relates to consistent management, cohesive policies, guidance, processes and decision-rights for a given area of responsibility. For example, managing at a corporate level might involve evolving policies on privacy, on internal investment, and on the use of data.

  11. IT Governance • More systems, systems covering several areas • Issues • principles, architecture, infrastructure strategies, business application needs, investment, prioritization • Alternatives • Business monarchy, IT monarchy, feudal, federal, IT duopoly, anarchy

  12. Regulation • Wikipedia • Regulation is administrative legislation that constitutes or constrains rights and allocates responsibilities. It can be distinguished from primary legislation (by Parliament or elected legislative body) on the one hand and judge-made law on the other. [1] Regulation can take many forms: legal restrictions promulgated by a government authority, self-regulation by an industry such as through a trade association, social regulation (e.g. norms), co-regulation, or market regulation. One can consider regulation as actions of conduct imposing sanctions, such as a fine, to the extent permitted by the law of the land. This action of administrative law, or implementing regulatory law, may be contrasted with statutory or case law. • Regulation mandated by a state attempts to produce outcomes which might not otherwise occur, produce or prevent outcomes in different places to what might otherwise occur, or produce or prevent outcomes in different timescales than would otherwise occur. In this way, regulations can be seen as implementation artifacts of policy statements. Common examples of regulation include controls on market entries, prices, wages, Development approvals, pollution effects, employment for certain people in certain industries, standards of production for certain goods, the military forces and services. The economics of imposing or removing regulations relating to markets is analysed in regulatory economics.

  13. II Regulation? • = IT governance? • ”we reject kings, and tsars, ..” • Management: • projects, corporations (cloesed hierarchical organizations) • Governance • Larger domains, less strict • Regulation • Communities, law centered

  14. Theories of regulation • Julia Black: • From command and control to cultivation • Wikipedia • Larry Lessig: • Regulatory modalities • Law • Technology/architecture (”code is law”) • Market (prices) • Social norms • ISO standards are law!

  15. II Governance = IT management/Governance? • Control2Drift/Complexity, ICT & Risk: • The limits of control • Reflexivity • ePrescription • Alternatives? • Control form outside/above – from inside/below • Self-management? • Open source communities, Wikipedia (Zittrain)?

  16. Coping with complexity • 1. law: • Complexity cannot be managed, you can only • Aviod making it!!

  17. Kompleksitet = integrasjon * endringshastighet Org 1 Org 2 Brukere/org Applikasjon Infrastruktur

  18. Styrings-systemer • Trad: command and control • Planlegging, milepæler, prosjektstyringsverktøy,… • Styrings-strategi: • Prosess-strategi (top-down, spesifikasjonsdrevet,..) • Arkitektur • Governance regime (hierarkisk kontroll, detaljert planlegging og tett oppfølging)

  19. Governance Regime • Organizing • Decision rights • Management tools • Communication tools • Project management tools • …. • Legal issues

  20. II Governance Research • II as Commons (Ostrom/Constantinides) • Rights • Operational rights • Access, contribution, extraction • Collective choice rights • Removal, management, exclusion • Constitutional rights • Alienation

  21. Adaptive Co-Management • Natural resources • Learning and communication – not competition • Vertical and horizontal connections • Feed forward and backward • Institutions

  22. Internet • Prosess-strategi: eksperiemntering, evolusjonær utvikling (”we believe in ..”) • Arkitektur: end-2-end • Governance regime: • Løst koplet nettverk • FOSS (GPL) • ftp-servere + e-mail

  23. Wikipedia • Regulation as cultivation

  24. Summary Care Record Systems • Scotland: • 3 MGBP (4M Euros, 4 M USD) • Denmark: • Official, top-down • 10 M Euros, • Faded out after 4 years, officially cancelled after 8 • Unofficial, bottom-up • Great success • Norway (ePrescription) • 500 MNOK +++ • UK • Started 2004, early adoption 2007, further deployment is frozen • Spent 240 MGBP

  25. Case: Nasjonale eHelse-løsninger • Formidling av rekvisisjoner og svar, henvisninger og epikriser, etc. • eResept • Kjernejournal • …

  26. ePrescription

  27. The EDI Paradigm - INA Information flow ICT architecture Project organization Hospital systems VendorsofGPs’ EPR systems Vendors of hospital syst. GP offices Hospitals GPs’ EPR systems NAV systems NAV’s dev. org. Vendor of the Pharmacies’ system NAV Lab systems Vendors of Lab systems Pharmacies Labs Pharmacy systems

  28. eRespet: Eskalerende kompleksitet • Konsekvens av samspill mellom • Prosess-strategi • Arkitektur • Styringsregime • Profdoc’s nye system er sterkt forsinket • NAFData’s nye system er sterkt forsinket • Sykehusene’s medikament-tjeneste er sterkt forsinket • Feil arkitektur gjorde prosjektet umulig å styre!!

  29. Fürst GP GP office GP computer GP’s computer GP’s EPR system Client module Project org. Communication system/network Lab/hospital ICT architecture Project organization Server module Lab/hospital Lab system

  30. Andre eksempler • Nordnorsk helsenett • DIPS Interactor • Medikament-forbruks-database • BlåRev • EDIMED

  31. Project organization Information flow ICT architecture Vendors of hospital systems Vendors of GPs’ EPR systems Hospital systems GPs’ EPR systems GP offices Hospitals Project ASP Services ASP Welfare Agency Systems National Welfare Agency Welfare Agencydevel. org. Lab systems Pharmacy systems Pharma- cies Labs Vendors Phar- macy system Vendors of Lab systems SPA Paradigm

  32. ICT and innovations/change in health care • EDI paradigm: centralized, closed, tight coupling, complex(org + tech): stabilizing • SPA Paradigm: loose coupling, distributed control, allows experimentation, evolution and improvement: de-stabilizing

  33. Arkitekturens rolle • ”Strategic architecting” • ”Architectural control points” • Internet • eResept: fra INA til web-baserte klieneter • uenighet

  34. Konklusjon • Kompleksiteten øker • Vanskeligst kompleksitet: kompleks kopling mellom teknologiske og organisatoriske elementer • Kompleksitet skapes (integrasjon, interoperabilitet, ..) • Kompleksitet kan ikke styres (ovenfra/utenfra) • Arkitektur er kjernen • Samspill: prosess strat. –arkitekt. - gov. regime

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