Integrated Landscape Assessment Project

1. South Fork McKenzie: Mgmt Scenario Integrated Landscape Assessment Project • Assessment & Planning • All land ownerships • All major upland systems Treg Christopher, May 24, 2012

2. State-and-Transition Models (STMs) - Abstracted Growth & succession Fire and salvage Growth & succession Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP): http://oregonstate.edu/inr/ilap ILAP modeling software: ESSA Technologies’ VDDT & Path (www.essa.com) Planting or natural regeneration

3. ILAP Modeling Process

4. Potential Vegetation Types (PVTs) One State-and-Transition Model (STM) per PVT PAG Grid PVT Grid

5. 5th field HUC & Owner Grids

6. Modeling Strata Potential vegetation type Ownership-allocation Watershed

7. Initial Veg Conditions Current Veg Map (2006) Table of current veg Key to translate from mapped current veg to model states Reclassified Veg Map (fwi PVT only) Modeled states and acres for fwiPVT

8. Run Models & Hook to Interpretations Design management scenario Fuels Wildlife habitat Terrestrial habitat Treatment finances Economic potential VDDT Models Watershed Interpretations Aquatic habitat Wildfire-fuel hazards

9. Where are old dry forest at risk? Risk Draft results – Subject to change High Low

10. Could restoration make a difference? No Management – Year 50 Restoration – Year 50 Risk Draft results – Subject to change High Low

11. Kilometers 0 25 50 100 Who needs to work together? Percent of dry forest ownership within 50 miles of selected sawmills Forest Service Other Federal Lands Current conditions State Lands Tribal Lands Private Industry Saw Mill 50 mile radius Risk Draft results – Subject to change High Low

12. Timber Volume Volume (1000 cubic feet)

13. Habitat No Management Acres Northern Spotted Owl Restoration Year White Headed Woodpecker Acres Draft results – Subject to change Year

14. South Fork McKenzie: Mgmt Scenario • Willamette NF’s Northwest Forest Plan Land Use Allocations (lrmpPub) • MA14a & b (mgmt_alc field) and AMA & Matrix (Withhd field) -> “harvest-able” • the rest of the USFS area -> “other” Other areas Timber area

15. Timber Area: Harvest Prescription • Partial harvest of stands 51-91 YO • Assume 75% of area available for harvesting will actually be harvested • Don’t harvest again for 25 years (min) • Model States • Size classes: small (10-15 “) & medium (15-20”) • Annual transition probability = .75 /# years in a state

16. STM Model Diagram 80% Partial Harvest 2 Partial Harvest 20%

17. Harvesting with Probabilistic Transitions Partial Harvest 1 Partial Harvest 2

18. Modeling Harvesting with Treatment Analyzer • Yr 2017 (time step 11): Begin harvesting • Acres in med & small size classes under no mgmt scenario = 5,000 • Harvest 500/ yr for 10 years • Rest for 25 years then repeat Optimize treatments and costs with analyzer

19. Creating an indicator/attribute table

20. Timber Area: Results by Size Class

21. Timber Area: Results by Seral Stage

22. ftp://131.252.97.79/ILAP/Index.html

23. Tools Generate initial conditions for VDDT/Path Combine/simplify initial conditions strata Summarize Path output Graph summarized Path output The full meal deal

24. End of Presentation Materials