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Unit 8: Party Goals: Policy vs. Office

Unit 8: Party Goals: Policy vs. Office. Lijphart , Laver and Schofield, Dalton and Wattenberg CH 9 Mueller and Strom pgs. 36-62 or 63-88*. Guiding Questions . What is coalition theory? How do we explain which parties get into government? What do office based theories hypothesize?

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Unit 8: Party Goals: Policy vs. Office

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  1. Unit 8: Party Goals: Policy vs. Office Lijphart, Laver and Schofield, Dalton and Wattenberg CH 9 Mueller and Strom pgs. 36-62 or 63-88*

  2. Guiding Questions • What is coalition theory? • How do we explain which parties get into government? • What do office based theories hypothesize? • What do policy based theories hypothesize?

  3. Parties at the Center of Government • Strom 1999 • Parties remain “at the core of government” • Democracies vary in terms of how they vest executive and legislative authority • Attempt to prevent unchecked executive or legislature rule. • Classic theories predicated on the US (presidential) and the UK (parliamentary) models. • A long history in political theory. • Presidential and parliamentary systems posit very different relationships between the executive and the legislature.

  4. Reviewing Presidentialism and Parliamentarism PRESIDENTIALISM PARLIAMENTARISM • President: head of state and head of government • Separate origin • Executive and legislative branches are elected separately. • Both branches are elected for a fixed term. • Cabinet members do not sit in the legislative branch. • Separate survival • Neither branch can remove the other except in extraordinary circumstances. • Prime Minister: head of government • PM/Cabinet-collective executive • Monarch/president: head of state • Shared origin: • Only legislature is directly elected. • Terms are not fixed. • PM /Cabinet come from the legislature • Shared survival: • Confidence relationship exists between executive and legislature

  5. Confidence Relationship • Concept of responsible government defines parliamentary systems. • PM and his or her government must have the confidence of the chamber (majority support). • Legislature possesses authority to express no confidence in the executive. • Governments must resign if they lose a vote of confidence. • Executive (PM) has powers of dissolution. • PM can typically dissolve the parliament and call for new elections at any time. • Strong party discipline is critical in parliamentary systems.

  6. Coalition Theory • Many parliamentary systems use proportional representation to elect representatives. • This makes it difficult for one party to win more than 50% of the seats. • Parties wishing to enter government have to create a coalition that cannot be defeated on a confidence vote. • Coalition theory examines why certain parties enter government and others do not. • Following an election there are many possible coalitions. • But not all are feasible. • Some parties are always in government while others are always in opposition. • Why are certain parties more likely to enter government while others do not seek to enter government at all? • Literature offers both office based and policy based motivations for entering government

  7. Office Seeking Theories: Minimal Winning Coalitions • Von Neumann and Morgenstern 1953 • Theory is “policy blind” • Conceives of government formation as a zero sum game over the spoils of office • Hypothesis: Minimal winning coalitions will form. • Minimal winning coalitions: • Coalitions where every party is critical to maintaining a majority (i.e. no superfluous parties). • Observations: From 1945-1987, 35% of coalitions formed followed this pattern.

  8. Office Seeking Coalitions: Minimum Winning Coalitions • In large systems, several minimal winning coalitions are possible. • How do parties choose between minimal winning coalitions? • Riker 1962 • Hypothesis: Parties want to boost their bargaining weight within a coalition, thus minimum winning coalitions will form. • Minimum winning coalitions: • Coalitions consisting of parties with the smallest total weight.

  9. Iceland 1983 • 63 possible coalitions. • 7 possible minimal winning coalitions (no superfluous parties): • 37: IP/PP • 34: PP/PA/SD/SDF • 33: IP/PA; IP/SD/SDF; PP/PA/SD/WL • 32: IP/SD/WL • 31: PP/PA/SDF/WL • 1 minimum winning coalition (minimal winning with smallest weight): • 31: PP/PA/SDF/WL • End result: IP and PP coalition.

  10. Office Seeking Theories: Minimal Connected Winning Coalitions • Questions of which minimal coalition should be chosen still plagued these theories. • Axelrod 1970 • Policy “compatibility” reduces the number of viable coalitions and eases bargaining. • Hypothesis: Minimal connected winning coalitions will form. • Minimal connected winning coalitions: • Minimal winning coalitions made up of parties which are ideological “neighbors” • Loss of one party leaves a coalition which is either: • 1) no longer winning • 2) no longer connected

  11. Italy 1972 • 127 coalitions were possible. • 3 were minimal connected winning (MCW): • PSI/PSDI/PRI/DC • PSDI/PRI/DC/PLI • DC/PLI/MSI. • Any coalition including the MSI or the PCI was not an option. • Five coalitions formed before new elections were held.

  12. Italy 1972-Revolving Coalitions • 1st: DC minority government (267). • 2nd: DC coalition (minimum winning-316). • 3rd: DC coalition (minimal connected winning-372). • 4th: DC coalition (surplus majority-357 seats) • 5th: DC minority government (282).

  13. Evaluating Office Based Theories • Pure office based theories cannot address: • 1) Why surplus parties are ever included in a governing coalition? • Example: Israel • 2) Why minority governments form? • Example: Denmark • But policy based theories of coalition formation can.

  14. Policy Based Theories: Issue Dimensions • Laver and Schofield 1998. • Parties enter winning coalitions that will adopt their preferred policy. • Party controlling the median voter serves as the “pivot” within the legislature. • Sees the party holding the median voter as a “policy dictator” • Hypothesis: Coalitions will include the party holding the median legislator.

  15. Denmark 1966 • The median legislator is a Social Democrat (SD). • Any viable coalition would require SD support. • Result: SD formed a minority government. • Defeating the SD would require parties of the left and the right to coalesce. • Unlikely. So a party could govern without holding a majority of seats.

  16. Conclusions • Median parties are well placed in coalition bargaining talks. • Laver and Schofield 1998: • More than 80% of coalitions from 1945-1987 included or were supported by the median party. • To suggest that parties care about policy does not mean that they do not possess office seeking goals. • Understanding government formation requires us to look at BOTH policy and office goals.

  17. Case Study: Ireland • Examine • How the Irish political environment shapes party options. • How do Irish parties typically rank policy, office, and votes? • Labour’s coalition decisions • What were the tradeoffs made between policy and votes in negotiations with Fianna Fail and Fine Gael? • Fine Gael’s (FG) Tallaght Strategy • What did FG get out of supporting its nemesis in government? • Fianna Fail’s (FF) decision to form a coalition. • Why did a party that used to govern alone become willing to share the spoils of office?

  18. Case Study: Denmark • Examine: • Why were minority governments so viable within the Danish case? • That is, why would a party seek to form a minority coalition? • Why would other parties prefer to remain in opposition rather than defeat a minority government? • Why do parties prefer to be seen as advancing policy rather than office based motives?

  19. Next Lecture • Theme: Party Systems • Ware pgs. 5-13 • Theme: Party Systems (Competition Models) • Ware CH 5 • Electronic Reserves: Sartori • Mueller and Strom pgs. 141-171

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