Workshop on Population Projections

1. Workshop on Population Projections 29 October-2 November 2012 Pretoria, South Africa

2. Session 1: Introduction • Introduction to the workshop. • The need for and the utility of population projections • Population projections for Africa: Background and challenges. • Getting ready: Software, data, internet

3. Introduction to the workshop. Agenda of the workshop • The workshop has 10 Sessions, most of which are presentations combined with hands-on exercises and interaction with the trainers and among participants. There will be time for participants to work on projects and exercises. There will be an evaluation of the workshop by participants at the last day of the workshop. • Session 1: Introduction • Session 2: Establishing the Base Population • Session 3: Background and First Steps • Session 4: Projecting the levels of mortality, fertility and migration • Session 5: Projecting the age patterns of mortality, fertility and migration • Session 6: Introduction to Population Projections • Session 7: Population projections for national populations • Session 8: Population projections for sub-national, sectoral or small populations • Session 10: Final Matters

4. The need for and the utility of population projections • The future is unknowable…Why population projection? • Who needs/uses population Projections? • Producers of population projections

5. The future is unknowable…Why population projection? Planning for people’s needs • Planning for education • Planning for health system: Doctors, nurses, hospital beds • Planning for old age: aging • Planning for employment: demographic dividend • Planning for infrastructure: Roads, Airports, • Planning for housing: urbanization

6. But: We know some basic demographic trends Demographic processes are long-term • Lasting impact of past and current changes • Momentum No equilibrium yet • There are profound changes going on in all countries of the world Demographic transition as guiding principle • Countries move from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and mortality – still in progress in many developing countries

7. The demographic transition animated Growth rate 1 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 0 %

8. Transformation of age structures:=> From pyramid to (almost) rectangle.=> From young populations to older populations

9. World Population Ageing

10. Transformation of survival:=> From early deaths to late deaths.

11. Changing survival

12. What population projections can reveal

13. Planning for Education Nigeria

14. Population growth rate

15. Aging

16. Urbanization

17. Urbanization

18. Who needs, who uses population Projections? Main users • Governments (ministries of education, health, planning, etc) • Regional and local governments • Private sector (demand, supply)

19. Who needs, who uses Population Projections? NUMBER OF COUNTRIES THAT HAVE CONDUCTED NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS 54% 34% 67% 52% 80%

20. Producers of population projections • Governments: NSO, other national institutions • Regional organizations: EUROSTAT, CELADE (UN Regional Commission) • International organizations: UNPD (WPP, WUP biennially) • Others: Private Sector, international research institutions (IIASA)

21. Population projections for Africa: Background and challenges Challenges: • Slow fertility transitions • HIV/AIDS, neglected tropical diseases • Urbanization • Data

22. Slow fertility transitions

23. Population growth

24. Aging

25. Urbanization

26. Urbanization

27. Urbanization

28. Urbanization

29. Data The good news • Censuses are regularly held in almost all countries in the world. • The 2010 Round of Censuses has so far enumerated 88% of the world’s population in 184 censuses (As of 1 August 2012)http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/census/2010_PHC/censusclockmore.htm

30. Data The bad news • Vital registration is still a problem in most developing countries. • Not just a challenge for professional statisticians, it is a challenge to human rights • The scandal of invisibility: Little progress since the 1970s.

31. Analysis: Vital registration Percentage of population living in countries with complete civil registration systems Source: Mahapatra et al. 2007, table 2

32. Surveys or Civil Registration?

33. Getting ready: Software, data, internet • Software used in the workshop • Textbooks, manuals • Data sources • Additional tools and data

34. Software used in the workshop • Projection software • RUPEX v. 1.46 • Spectrum 4.5 • Demographic analysis tools • MORTPAK v. 4.2. • PASEX • General software • Excel, Word, PowerPoint etc.

35. Textbooks, manuals • Siegel, Swanson 2004 • Preston et al. 2000 • Arriaga (1994 and later) • United Nations Manuals • Software Manuals

36. US Census Bureau: Arriaga

37. Textbooks

38. Data sources • National data • United Nations data (UNSD, UNPD) • Other

39. UN Data sources: UNSD http://data.un.org/

40. UN Data sources: UNPD http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm

41. Additional tools and data • Demographic software • PADIS http://www.padis-int.org/index.php?c=main&a=view&id=130&lan=en • Applied Demographic Toolbox • http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~eddieh/toolbox.html • Demographic data • Human Mortality Database [www.mortality.org] • Human Fertility Database [www.humanfertility.org/] • Human Life-Table Database [www.lifetable.de/] • INDEPTH [www.indepth-network.org/]