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How good are models at Predicting Climate Change?

How good are models at Predicting Climate Change?. Duane Waliser Scientist – Weather/Climate Modeling JPL/Caltech October 24, 2009. Your connections to climate change predictions.

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How good are models at Predicting Climate Change?

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  1. How good are models at Predicting Climate Change? Duane Waliser Scientist – Weather/Climate Modeling JPL/Caltech October 24, 2009

  2. Your connections to climate change predictions The IPCC - established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess “the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.” More than 2,000 scientists from ~150 countries typically participate. Reports in 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007. ~20 Modeling Centers around the World; US has 3 model teams.

  3. Climate Model Computer “Grid” Solve Equations on our fastest super-computers Apply the Conservation Laws of Mass, Energy and Momentum and the Ideal Gas Law Similar for Ocean, Land & Ice Systems

  4. Volcanoes Solar Volcanoes Solar Greenhouse Ozone Greenhouse Ozone How well do these Climate Models Work for Simulating the 20th Century Climate? Natural & Man-Made Induced Changes • Necessary inputs to our models are • a starting condition • imposed natural forcing (solar radiation, volcanoes) • Imposed man-made forcing (ozone, CO2). Model Hindsight Pretty Good

  5. Predicting the Future Technology, Politics & Society Plausible “Scenarios” For CO2 Emissions

  6. Where does the warming occur? IPCC, 4th (2007) Assessment Report Projected Temperature Change In 2100 Multiply by ~2 for Fahrenheit 2099-2070 Minus 1999-1970

  7. Systematic Warming 1.5 - 3.0 C 2.7 - 5.4 F Relatively Agreeable How About Our Backyard? IPCC, 4th (2007) Assessment Report Decrease in snowpack is consistent - but how much: 20-80%?

  8. Continued Dedication • & Focus Reduce Remaining Uncertainties • Better/More Measurements • Faster/Better Computers & Infrastructure

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