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Interpretation of the new high-resolution model LMK Heike Hoffmann heike.hoffmann@dwd.de

Interpretation of the new high-resolution model LMK Heike Hoffmann heike.hoffmann@dwd.de Volker Renner volker.renner@dwd.de. Aims . - high-resolution numerical weather forecasts include stochastic elements even in the short range

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Interpretation of the new high-resolution model LMK Heike Hoffmann heike.hoffmann@dwd.de

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  1. Interpretation of the new high-resolution model LMK Heike Hoffmann heike.hoffmann@dwd.de Volker Renner volker.renner@dwd.de Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  2. Aims - high-resolution numerical weather forecasts include stochastic elements even in the short range - direct model output should therefore be transformed for point forecasts - probability information of the exceedance for given thresholds and/or warning events should be derived by statistical means Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  3. Method We plan a two step approach 1. Using information of a single model forecast by applying the Neighbourhood Method (NM) 2. Using information resulting from LMK-forecasts that are started every 3 h (LAF-Ensemble) Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  4. Products • Probabilistic information for hazardous weather warnings • - exceedance probabilities for certain threshold values and • warning events for different parameters, (e.g. strong gales, heavy • rain; long list with warning criteria from our forecast department) • „Statistically smoothed” fields for point forecasts • - Expectation Values from spatiotemporal neighbourhood • -simple averaging over quadratic grid boxes Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  5. LMK Total Precipitation [mm/h] 04/01/13, 00 UTC, vv=17-18 Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  6. Exceedance Probability of 1 mm/h, 04/01/13, 17-18 UTC [%] calculated with the NM with 10 grid increments, 3 time levels (t-1, t, t+1) Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  7. Verification results deterministic verification probabilistic verification Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  8. Verification Data LMK forecasts; 2004, Jan 3-17; July 13-27, 1 h values, 00 UTC and 12 UTC starting time; 7-18 h forecast time all SYNOPs available from German stations comparison with nearest land grid point Neighbourhood-Method-Parameters temporal: 3 time levels (3 h); spatial: radius: 10s ( 28 km) Simple Averaging square areas of different size (3*3, 5*5, 7*7, 9*9, 11*11, 15*15, 25*25) temperatures adjusted with -0.65 K/(100 m) Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  9. LMK and LM, Jan 3-17, vv = 7-18, 00 UTC, ETS LMK DMO LMK expectation value LMK median LM DMO LM expectation value LM median threshold [mm/h] Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  10. LMK, Jan 3-17, vv = 7-18, 00 UTC, FBI Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  11. LMK, Jan 3-17, vv = 7-18, 00 UTC, ETS Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  12. LMK, July 13-27, vv = 7-18, 00 UTC, ETS Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  13. Reliability diagram precipitation Jan 2004 Frequency ofobservation Frequency of forecast Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  14. LMK, Jan 3-17, July 13-27 vv = 7-18, 00 UTC, BSS Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  15. Summary • NM seems to work similarly for the LMK fields like for the LM • results for original and postprocessed LMK-fields are slightly better than for LM fields • 00 UTC runs show slightly better scores than 12 UTC runs • scores in winter are much better than in summer, in summer there is more effect in postprocessing • expectation values do not integrate into simple averaging, show advantages especially for intermediate thresholds • BSS vs. climate also show better quality in winter, BSS vs. LMK indicate stronger influence of postprocessing in summer Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  16. Outlook - further work on the NM - investigations on the influence of neighbourhood size and shape - investigations on spatiotemporal autocorrelations of the forecast fields - conceptual and technical optimization of the NM - work on Probabilistic Products for different parameters - development of a new weather-interpretation for the LMK ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - development of products from the LMK-LAF-Ensemble Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

  17. Acknowledgements Many thanks to ... - Andreas Hense and Susanne Theis for the idea and the imple-mentation of the NM for the LM - Ulrich Damrath for his help with the verification - Elke Wolff for introducing me into the NM program package - the DWD for enabling the “Aktionsprogramm 2003” and providing a great working environment - you for your attention and your contribution to the discussion Interpretation of the new high resolution model LMK

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