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Experiments of Hurricane Initialization with Airborne Doppler Radar Data for the Advanced-research Hurricane WRF (AHW) Model. Qingnong Xiao 1 , Xiaoyan Zhang 1 , Christopher Davis 1 , John Tuttle 1 , Greg Holland 1 , and Patrick J. Fitzpatrick 2

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  1. Experiments of Hurricane Initialization with Airborne Doppler Radar Data for the Advanced-research Hurricane WRF (AHW) Model Qingnong Xiao1, Xiaoyan Zhang1, Christopher Davis1, John Tuttle1, Greg Holland1, and Patrick J. Fitzpatrick2 1ESSL/MMM, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 2Northern Gulf Institute, The Mississippi State University, Stennis Space Center, Mississippi 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  2. Outline • Motivations • Airborne Doppler radar data • WRF 3DVAR data assimilation • Experiments and results • Hurricane Jeanne (2004) • Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) • Statistical verification • Summary and conclusions 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  3. Outline • Motivations • Airborne Doppler radar data • WRF 3DVAR data assimilation • Experiments and results • Hurricane Jeanne (2004) • Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) • Statistical verification • Summary and conclusions 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  4. AHW previous results • WRF ARW improved track and intensity over official forecast beyond 36 h. • Short-term forecasts (< 2 days) show a rather poor skills in WRF ARW, due to model spin-up problem. • An improved hurricane initialization, using advanced data assimilation technique, can augment the skills of short-term forecasts. WRF hurricane forecast in 2005 (Orange), Davis et al. 2008 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  5. Motivations • Airborne Doppler radar data provide high resolution wind and hydrometeor structure of hurricane vortex, and have a great potential for improved hurricane initialization. • An improved hurricane initialization, using advanced data assimilation technique, can augment the skills of short-term forecasts, especially the hurricane intensity forecasts. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  6. Outline • Motivations • Airborne Doppler radar data • WRF 3DVAR data assimilation • Experiments and results • Hurricane Jeanne (2004) • Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) • Statistical verification • Summary and conclusions 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  7. Airborne Doppler radar observations Flight track for Hurricane Jeanne (2004) NOAA 43 NOAA 42 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  8. Horizontal wind field and radar reflectivity at 2.5 km AMSL for Hurricanes a) Jeanne at ~1800 UTC 24 Sep 2004, b) Katrina at ~1800 UTC 27 Aug 2005 and c) Rita at ~1800 UTC 20 Sep 2005. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  9. Outline • Motivations • Airborne Doppler radar data • WRF 3DVAR data assimilation • Experiments and results • Hurricane Jeanne (2004) • Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) • Statistical verification • Summary and conclusions 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  10. WRF-Var data assimilation system Background constraint(Jb) Observation constraint(Jo) obs • xb: modelbackground(former information) • H(x) : observation operator(simulating observations from model) • [y – H(x)] : innovationvector (new information) • Minimum of the cost function J(x), (analysis) updates the background with new information from observations. Jo former forecast Analysis Jo Background obs corrected forecast Jb Jo xa obs 9h 12h 15h Assimilation window With hypotheses, the analysis estimates the true state of the atmosphere (in terms of max likelihood). 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  11. WRF-Var Capabilities • WRF-Var is an advanced data assimilation system based on the variational technique. • It includes WRF 3D-Var, 4D-Var, and ensemble/variational hybrid (En3D-Var, En4D-Var). • It can assimilate all observational data, including satellite and radar data. • It is robust, and facilitates research and real-time applications. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  12. WRF-Var Flow Chart xb Cycling NCEP Analysis WPS TC Vortex Relocation WRF REAL Regular Obs Satellite Obs Forecast Observation Preprocessor yo WRF-Var (3/4D-Var or En-Var) xa Radar Obs TC Bogus Obs B Verification and Statistics Background Error Calculation 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  13. Outline • Motivations • Airborne Doppler radar data • WRF 3DVAR data assimilation • Experiments and results • Hurricane Jeanne (2004) • Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005) • Statistical verification • Summary and conclusions 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  14. Track Intensity 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  15. Jeanne (2004): Hurricane initialization GTS+RADR NO DA GTS only 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  16. H-Windfrom NOAA/HRD 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  17. Vertical structure GTS only GTS+RADR 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  18. 300 hPa analytical increments of wind vector (maximum vector represents 29.7 ms-1) and temperature (isolines with contour interval of 0.2K, the negative value dashed) GTS only GTS+RADR 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  19. 24-h forecasts of SLP (thick solid isolines), and surface (10-m) wind vector and speed (shadings with thin isolines) for Hurricane Jeanne at 1800 UTC 25 Sep 2004 GTS+RADR GTS only 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  20. Vertical cross-sections of equivalent potential temperature and horizontal wind speed (shading with the scale on the upper right) at 1800 UTC 25 Sep 2004 (24-h forecast) GTS+RADR GTS only 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  21. Hurricane forecast (reflectivity) GTS plus radar wind plus reflectivity 24-hr 36-hr 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  22. The reflectivity (dBZ) image from WSR–88D from Melbourne, Florida at 0232 UTC 26 Sep 2004 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  23. Hurricane track Black: Observation Red: NO-DA Blue: GTS-DA Green: GTS + ADR wind DA Cyan: GTS _ ADR wind and reflectivity DA 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  24. Hurricane intensity Black: Observation Red: NO-DA Blue: GTS-DA Green: GTS + ADR wind DA Cyan: GTS _ ADR wind and reflectivity DA 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  25. WRF 3DVAR analysis for Hurricane Katrina (2005) SLP & Wind at 850mb before after Best Track: 948mb GFS Analysis: 985mb GTSRV : 979mb

  26. 48-h Track Forecast for Katrina (2005)

  27. 48-h Intensity Forecast for Katrina (2005)

  28. 48-h Track Forecast for Hurricane Rita (2005) 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  29. 48-h Intensity Forecast for Rita (2005) 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  30. Average mean absolute errors for the three hurricanes a) track, b) CSLP, and c) MSW 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  31. Summary and Conclusions • Airborne Doppler radar data have a more detailed hurricane inner-core structure. Assimilation of the data results in a better vortex initialization. • Both the intensity and track forecast are improved after assimilating airborne Doppler radar wind data. The intensity forecast benefits more than track from airborne Doppler radar data assimilation. • The benefits of airborne Doppler data assimilation are somewhat smaller for the stronger, rapidly intensifying hurricanes of Katrina and Rita (2005) than for Jeanne (2004). • In terms of WRF 3D-Var for airborne Doppler data assimilation, some limitations also exist. • A specific background error covariance for hurricanes should be developed. • Reflectivity assimilation in WRF 3D-Var uses warm-rain process to bridge rainwater with other model variables in the analysis. • Observation error statistics for aircraft radar data are only crudely represented at present. • WRF 3D-Var does not take into account the time differences but instead ingests data at one instant in time. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

  32. Thank you! 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 2-5, 2009, St. Petersburg, FL

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