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This review assesses Australia's contribution to the pool of global knowledge in the ocean energy sector and explores how ARENA and the Australian government can best support the industry. Initial findings highlight the state of the industry, current challenges and opportunities, and ARENA's focus on data collection. The review also examines different types of wave and tidal devices and the potential for international deployment.
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ARENA’s ocean energy sector reviewClean Energy Week 2014 • Andrew Newman • Strategy • ARENA • 23 July 2014
Aims of the review • SNAPSHOT OF KEY CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES • ASSESS AUSTRALIA’S CONTRIBUTION TO POOL OF GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE • HOW ARENA/AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT CAN BEST SUPPORT THE MARINE ENERGY SECTOR
Today’s presentation • INITIAL FINDINGS (DRAFT ONLY) • MARINE TECHNOLOGIES • STATE OF THE INDUSTRY • COST CURVE FOR MARINE ENERGY • OPPORTUNITIES AND OUTLOOK • ARENA’S FOCUS ON DATA ARENA welcomes comments from the sector on our initial findings
Initial findings from ARENA’s review • TECHNOLOGY • Some Australian companies at cutting edge of marine R&D • Designs yet to converge, reducing economies of scale • DATA • Paucity of data in real operating conditions • OPPORTUNITIES • Significant global investment planned in R&D • Largest wave/tidal market projected to be in Europe/Canada, some opportunities in Asian/South American markets • ARENA’S CONTRIBUTION • Data on economic case, environmental impact and grid integration • Monitor progress of ARENA projects, encouraging dissemination of energy output and environmental impact data, re-evaluate following project completion • Biopower’s O Drive
Wave, tidal, other ocean were considered for this review • 5 main types of wave devices demonstrated • Power can be generated either at sea or water pumped to onshore turbine • Tidal current devices sit in water in arrays like wave devices, wind turbines • Tidal barrages are dams which control the flow of water across tidal waterways to generate power • Other ocean technologies including thermal current and salinity gradient at very early stage • Offshore wind not considered Wave ARENA supported Tidal Horizontal axis device common (see left) Similar to underwater wind turbine Little convergence in design of foundation and support structures. Sources: SI Ocean, State of the Art (2014) ; UK Carbon Trust, Accelerating Marine Energy (2011)
Both Atlantic and Pacific nations have invested in marine energy Sources: SI Ocean: Ocean Energy in Europe’s Atlantic Arc; US Department of Energy; Wall Street Journal; • A$1 = US$0.93, 0.67 euros, 5 Danish Krone, C$1.02
Significant challenges facing marine energy • CAPITAL INTENSITY • Initial mooring, cabling costs high, decrease with economies of scale • POWER OF THE OCEAN • Specific technology issues not faced by on-land renewables • PROJECT FINANCING • UK and Ireland recovering from GFC • Australian banks, utilities reluctant to invest at early stage • MARKET • Low demand in eastern Australia • Developers targeting competitiveness with offshore wind by 2030 • Dependent on global deployment Sources: SI Ocean, State of the Art (2014) ; UK Carbon Trust, Accelerating Marine Energy (2011) AETA 2013 Cost Projections Source: BREE, Australian Energy Technology Assessment (2013)
Deployment key to reduce costs for wave, tidal UK strike price for marine UK strike price for marine Wave Tidal UK LCOE expected to be around $A225/MWh for wave/tidal current if 2GW installed globally (green line) UK government has indicated it will enter into wave/tidal current contracts for difference up to a total value of £305 (A$513) UK contract for difference scheme uncertainty affecting market investment According to above, only the most competitive wave would be supported, but tidal current more viable Blue line indicates projected build by 2020 with current funding (assuming split 50:50 between wave and tidal current – approx 25MW of each) Note – LCOE in Euro cents Sources: Renewable UK, Wave and Tidal Energy in the UK Conquering Challenges, Generating Growth (Feb 2013) ; UK Carbon Trust, Accelerating Marine Energy (2011)
Australia’s marine sector and market outlook • CURRENT LCOE APPROACHING REMOTE DIESEL COST • niches such as off-grid, coastal infrastructure protection • Australian companies targeting cost competitiveness with diesel by 2020 and ultimately on-grid power • European companies are not generally considering niche opportunities • SYNERGIES MAY FURTHER REDUCE COST • cooperation between companies • capitalise on wave, tidal and offshore wind deployment globally • alignment with offshore gas, automotive, shipbuilding manufacturing skills • POSSIBLE DEPLOYMENT OF INTERNATIONAL DEVICES • tropical tidal testing if European companies wish to explore Asian/South American/African markets • wave/tidal testing if Southern hemisphere lessons transferrable (i.e. to South Africa, Chile etc) • COMMERCIAL ON-GRID POWER POSSIBLE IN AUSTRALIA • Depending on pace of deployment overseas, cost reductions expected to occur – timing to commerciality - tbd Sources: Conversations with Oliver Wragg (EMEC), Shawn and Glen Ryan (Bombora), Dr Peter Osman (CSIRO)
Europe, Canada key markets with opportunities in Asia, S America, Southern Africa Wave Tidal + China target for 2015 - Taiwan target for 2025 *US Federal Government including Defence, 2025 Sources: SI Ocean: Ocean Energy in Europe’s Atlantic Arc; Marine Energy Development: Taking Steps to Develop the Chilean Resource
Our resources are great but challenging to exploit • Wave resources excellent in South-West Australia between Geraldton and Melbourne, but accessibility and Southern Ocean conditions challenging • Demand an issue in Victoria • Water depth, grid makes Australia largely unsuitable for fixed offshore wind • Tidal resources at King Sound (WA) and Banks Strait (NE Tas) 2nd and 3rd best in the world, but remote Sources: CSIRO, Ocean Renewable Energy 2015-2050
Data from ARENA projects will add to pool of global knowledge • ECONOMIC CASE • where the best sites are for marine energy investments • understanding of performance and project cost • skills and infrastructure needed to support wave energy projects • ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT • impact of wave arrays on marine environments • managing risk issues • INTEGRATING WAVE POWER INTO THE GRID • better understanding of how marine energy fits with demand Cable laying at test site: Source, European Marine Energy Centre
arena.gov.au • Thank you