Israel’s Strategic Options

1. Israel’s Strategic Options What Would Sherlock Holmes Have Said Dr. Martin Sherman

2. …. when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth" Sherlock Holmes in The Sign of Four

3. ‘Palestinian Lies’ • Of all thePalestinian lies there is no lie greater or more crushing than that which calls for the establishment of a separate Palestinian state in the West Bank... • . • Notsince the time of Dr. Goebbels [Head of the Nazi Propaganda Machine] hasthere ever been a case in which continual repetition of a lie has born such great fruits.... Ha’aretz (30-7-76), by former Meretz Minister of Education, Prof. Amnon Rubinstein

4. The establishment of such [a Palestinian] state means the inflow of combat ready Palestinian forces (more than 25,000 men under arms) into Judea and Samaria;this force, together with the local youth, will double itself in a short time. It will not be short of weapons or other [military] equipment, and in a short space of time, an infrastructure for waging war will be set up in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip. Israel will have problems in preserving day-to-day security, which may drive the country into war, or undermine the morale of its citizens. In time of war, the frontiers of the Palestinian state will constitute an excellent staging point for mobile forces to mount attacks on infrastructure installations vital for Israel’s existence, to impede the freedom of action of the Israeli air-force in the skies over Israel, and to cause bloodshed among the population... in areas adjacent to the frontier-line. Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, Jerusalem: Keter, 1978, p. 232.

5. Even if the Palestinians agree that their state have no army or weapons, who can guarantee that a Palestinian army would not be mustered later to encamp at the gates of Jerusalem and the approaches to the lowlands? And if the Palestinian state would be unarmed, how would it block terrorist acts perpetrated by extremists, fundamentalists or irredentists? Shimon Peres The New Middle East, New York: H. Holt, 1993, p. 169.

6. In 1948, it may have been possible to defend the “thin waist” of Israel’s most densely populated area, when the most formidable weapon used by both sides was the canon of limited mobility and limited fire-power… It is of course doubtful whether territorial expanse can provide absolute deterrence. However, the lack of minimal territorial expanse places a country in a position of an absolute lack of deterrence. This in itself constitutes almost compulsive temptation to attack Israel from all directions … In the 20th century, with the development of the rapid mobility of armies, the defensive importance of territorial expanse has increased…Without a border which affords security, a country is doomed to destruction in war. Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, pp. 235,254,255

7. If a Palestinian state is established, it will be armed to the teeth. Within it there will be bases of the most extreme terrorist forces, who will be equipped with anti-tank and anti-aircraft shoulder-launched rockets, which will endanger not only random passers-by, but also every airplane and helicopter taking off in the skies of Israel and every vehicle traveling along the major traffic routes in the coastal plain. Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, Jerusalem: Keter, 1978, p. 255. [The proponents of Palestinian State] claim if they [the Arabs] threaten us with artillery from Kalkilya , we will threaten Kalkilya with our artillery. However, the answer to this is very simple. The Arab world can exist, prosper, and develop not only if our artillery threatens Kalkilya, but even if it hits it. Israel, small and exposed, will neither be able to exist nor to prosper if its urban centers, its vulnerable airport and its narrow winding roads, are shelled. • This is the fundamental difference between them and us, this is the terrible danger involved in the establishment of a third independent sovereign state between us and the Jordan River… A third state is liable to be an arrow-head directed at the very heart of Israel with all the force of the Arab world behind it. • Amnon Rubinstein, ‘The Pitfall of a Third State ’Ha’artez, 6.8.1976

8. Maariv 12.6.1992 Ariel Sharon These experiences prove not only that terror can be eradicated, but also the principle by which this is to be accomplished. It is imperative not to run from terrorism, and it will be smitten only if we control its bases and it engage its gangs on their own territory. And Gaza is the prime example. The populated sections of Gaza had in 1970 become an area controlled by the terrorist organizations because the Defense Minister decided to evacuate the towns, villages and refugee camps. Fortunately we returned to the correct policy before the Gaza Strip exploded like festering abscess, which could have poisoned the entire surroundings. But because of mistaken policy – of fleeing from the population centers and refraining from eliminating the danger in its early formative stages – we had to conduct a much more difficult and lengthy campaign. Imperative Not To Flee From Terror If now we once more fall into the same mistake, the price will be much heavier than before – because now the terrorists and the means they have at their disposal are different and more dangerous than before. If we abandon Gaza, it will be taken over by the terror organizations. Palestine Square [in Gaza] will become a launching site for rockets aimed at … Ashkelon and what will the IDF do then? Will it once again recapture Gaza? Shell and bomb the towns and refugee camps in the Gaza Strip? We all aspire to a political settlement, but we not will reach it by way of surrender but only after crushing terrorism and we can only eliminate terrorism if we control its bases, and fight its gangs there and destroy them.

9. What these two senators [Byrd and Dole] assume is that somehow or other, some Arab state has a right to claim that anything beyond the Green Line is Arab territory under 242 and 338. This is exactly contrary to its provisions and its purpose…. [T]here is an important document which has now been released. It is useful in interpreting Resolution 242 because it reveals part of what the U.S. government had in mind in pushing the resolution through. It is a map of the area, showing the places of particular security concern to Israel. The map was prepared by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who made a study of Israeli security …to advise the President on what the security concerns of Israel were.* The study advised …that the security of Israel required Israel to receive parts of the territory of the West Bank as essential to its defense. In fact, all the studies of the Israeli security problem reached the same conclusion – from the security point of view, Israel must hold the high points in the West Bank and areas along the Jordan River. I do not know if the Joint Chiefs of Staff would draw a different map today, but I doubt is very much. * See Appendix D. Editor Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Resolutions 242 and 338” in Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and History, New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993

11. Wells within Israel proper were tapping this water long before the Six-Day War. But as the population and water demand on both sides of the Green Line have grown, the control of the western slopes has attained a new and vital importance for Israel. It is the rain falling on the West Bank that recharges the aquifer; [A]ny new wells drilled between the recharge area and the Israeli taps could cut off supply and, by lowering the water tables in the part of the aquifer that extends to the west of the Green Line, allow saline water from greater depths to seep in, permanently ruining what is left” US News & World Report, 16.12.91.

12. Location of wells and springs in districts of the West Bank

13. Head of Military Intelligence: The Arabs Demand 60 Percent of Israel’s Water

14. ● Major Air Fields - Civilian and Military ● Major Sea Ports and Naval Bases ●Principal Power Stations ●Sweet Water System ●Crucial Communications and Transport Systems ● Vital Centers of Military Command & Control, and Centers of Civilian Government ●80% of the Population and 80%of the Economic Activity

15. Territorial Concessions = Multi Dimensional Threat !! (a) Length – Extent of Frontiers (b) Width – No “Strategic Depth” (c) Height – Topographical Inferiority (d) Depth – Hydrological Dependency

16. Limited Autonomy Extended Autonomy Negotiated Sovereignty Unilateral Withdrawal Other Solutions Camp David I Rabin Endeavors to Solve the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Oslo + Derivatives Lebanon, Gaza ????

17. Question: Why has a Palestinian State Not Been Established up to Now?? * Best Prospects * Worst Results Palestinian Deeds and Palestinian Declarations Raise Doubts: * DoPalestiniansReallyDeserve Statehood? * Do Palestinians Really Desire Statehood?

18. The Palestinians have enjoyed: Almost Universal International Endorsement of Their Claims Do Palestinians Really Deserve Statehood? - Failed the Test of History Highly Supportive International Media Coverage Decades of Super Power Patronage Highly Accommodative Israeli Regimes which not only Acknowledged but Identified with their Claims

19. Do Palestinians ReallyDesire Statehood? Two Hypotheses: *Conflict Fueled by Lack of Palestinian Self Determination; Palestinians Aspire to Establish a State for Themselves. *Conflict Fueled by Existence of Jewish Self-Determination; Palestinians Aspire to Dismantle a State for Others.

20. There are no differences between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. We are all part of one nation. It is only for political reasons that we carefully underline our Palestinian identity, because it is in the interest of the Arabs to encourage a separate Palestinian identity. Yes, the existence of a separate Palestinian identity serves only tactical purposes. The founding of a Palestinian state is a new tool in the continuing battle against Israel. Zuheir Muhsin, formerly the head of the PLO's Military Department and member of its Executive Council Dutch daily Trouw March 31, 1977 … Jordanians and Palestinians are considered by the PLO as one people. Farouk Kadoumi, head of the PLO Political Department, Newsweek, on 14th March 1977. The appearance of the Palestinian national personality comes as an answer to Israel’s claim that Palestine is Jewish. King Hussein, Amman, Nov. 1987

21. The Palestinian National Charter Article 1. Palestine, the homeland of the Palestinian Arab people, is an inseparable part of the greater Arab homeland, and the Palestinian people are a part of the Arab Nation. Article 12: The Palestinian people believe in Arab unity. In order to contribute their share toward the attainment of that belief, however, they must, at the present stage of their struggle, safeguard their Palestinian identity and develop their consciousness of that identity, and oppose any plan that may dissolve or impair it.

22. Two Hypotheses: *Conflict Fueled by Lack of Palestinian Self Determination; Palestinians Aspire to Establish a State for Themselves. *Conflict Fueled by Existence of Jewish Self-Determination; Palestinians Aspire to Dismantle a State for Others. Which has Greater Explanatory Power ??

23. Rejection of every territorial proposal, which would have allowed them to create a state of their own - from the 1947 partition plan to Barak's offer at Camp David in 2000 Rejection of a "two state solution", as evidenced in their rhetoric and symbolism in which they portray the whole the Land of Israel, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, as part of Arab Palestine. Palestinians refrained from demands to exert their national sovereignty in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and Gaza - as evidenced by the text of their original National Charter. Accept rule by a Hashemite Bedouin despot, who represents the minority in the land. Rejection not only of the far-reaching generosity of the Barak proposal, but also the violent manner in which they rejected it. Although the proposals did include a proviso insisting on "end of conflict“, they were unprecedented in the concessions offered towards making a Palestinian state a feasible prospect. Palestinian response is explic-able only if "end of conflict" is an unacceptable concept for them. Stubborn insistence on the "right of return“, which implies placing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians ( and possibly even more), now living in Arab countries, under Israeli jurisdiction, a position hardly consistent with an alleged desire to be free of oppressive Israeli control... or with an equitable two-state solution.

24. Rejection of every territorial proposal, which would have allowed them to create a state of their own - from the 1947 partition plan to Barak's offer at Camp David in 2000

29. Rejection of a "two state solution", as evidenced in their rhetoric and symbolism in which they portray the whole the Land of Israel, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, as part of Arab Palestine.

30. Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - GC Palestinian Symbolism

31. Palestinian Islamic Jihad Hamas Palestinian Symbolism

32. Some Principles of the Hamas Charter ► Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it. ► The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgment Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up. ► There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavors. Palestinian Rhetoric

33. Fateh: The Movement's Essential Principles http://www.fateh.net/e_public/constitution.htm Article (6) UN projects, accords and resolutions, or those of any individual which undermine the Palestinian people's right in their homeland are illegal and rejected Article (7) The Zionist Movement is racial, colonial and aggressive in ideology, goals, organization and method. Article (8) The Israeli existence in Palestine is a Zionist invasion with a colonial expansive base, and it is a natural ally to colonialism and international imperialism Palestinian Rhetoric (cont) Goals Article (12)Complete liberation of Palestine, and eradication of Zionist economic, political, military and cultural existence. Article (13)Establishing an independent democratic state with complete sovereignty on all Palestinian lands, and Jerusalem is its capital city, and protecting the citizens' legal and equal rights without any racial or religious discrimination.   Methods Article (19)Armed struggle is a strategy and not a tactic, and the Palestinian Arab People's armed revolution is a decisive factor in the liberation fight and in uprooting the Zionist existence, and this struggle will not cease unless the Zionist state is demolished and Palestine is completely liberated

34. The Nature of Zionism and the Existence of Israel Fateh Article (7)The Zionist Movement is racial, colonial and aggressive in ideology, goals, organization and method. Article (8)The Israeli existence in Palestine is a Zionist invasion with a colonial expansive base, and it is a natural ally to colonialism and international imperialism Hamas The Zionist invasion is a mischievous one. It does not hesitate to take any road, or to pursue all despicable and repulsive means to fulfill its desires.

35. Attitudes to Peace and Efforts of International Mediation Fateh Article (6) UN projects, accords and resolutions, or those of any individual which undermine the Palestinian people's right in their homeland are illegal and rejected Article (22) Opposing any political solution offered as an alternative to demolishing the Zionist occupation in Palestine, as well as any project intended to liquidate the Palestinian case or impose any international mandate on its people. Hamas [Peace] initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the international conferences to resolve the Palestinian problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic Resistance Movement….The initiatives, proposals and International Conferences are but a waste of time, an exercise in futility…Those conferences are no more than a means to appoint the nonbelievers as arbitrators in the lands of Islam. Since when did the Unbelievers do justice to the Believers?

36. The Rejection of Any Non-Violent Resolution of the Conflict Fateh - Methods - Article (19)Armed struggle is a strategy and not a tactic, and the Palestinian Arab People's armed revolution is a decisive factor in the liberation fight and in uprooting the Zionist existence, and this struggle will not cease unless the Zionist state is demolished and Palestine is completely liberated Hamas Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it…There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad

37. The Totality of the Repudiation of Israel Fateh - Goals - Article (12) Complete liberation of Palestine, and eradication of Zionist economic, political, military and cultural existence Hamas The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgment Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up… Israel, by virtue of its being Jewish and of having a Jewish population, defies Islam and the Muslims.

38. Palestinians refrained from demands to exert their national sovereignty in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and Gaza - as evidenced by the text of their original National Charter. Accept rule by a Hashemite Bedouin despot, who represents the minority in the land.

39. THE PALESTINIAN NATIONAL CHARTER Adopted in 1964 by the 1st Palestinian Conference Article 16: The liberation of Palestine…is a defensive act necessitated by the demands of self-defense as stated in the Charter of the United Nations. For that, the people of Palestine… look forward to…restoring the legitimate situation to Palestine, establishing peace and security in its territory, and enabling its people to exercise national sovereignty... Article 24: This Organization does not exercise any territorial sovereignty over the West Bank in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, on the Gaza Strip or in the Himmah Area…

40. Rejection not only of the far-reaching generosity of the Barak proposal, but also the violent manner in which they rejected it. Although the proposals did include a proviso insisting on "end of conflict“, they were unprecedented in the concessions offered towards making a Palestinian state a feasible prospect. Palestinian response is explicable only if "end of conflict" is an unacceptable concept for them.

41. Stubborn insistence on the "right of return“, which implies placing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians ( and possibly even more), now living in Arab countries, under Israeli jurisdiction, a position hardly consistent with an alleged desire to be free of oppressive Israeli control... or with an equitable two-state solution.

42. So which Hypothesis should be adopted as a basis for policy? *Conflict Fueled by Lack of Palestinian Self Determination; Palestinians Aspire to Establish a State for Themselves. *Conflict Fueled by Existence of Jewish Self-Determination; Palestinians Aspire to Dismantle a State for Others.

43. Retention of Defensible Borders Implies Palestinian State Untenable. Establishment of Tenable Pale-stinian State Implies Indefensible Borders

44. What these two senators [Byrd and Dole] assume is that somehow or other, some Arab state has a right to claim that anything beyond the Green Line is Arab territory under 242 and 338. This is exactly contrary to its provisions and its purpose…. [T]here is an important document which has now been released. It is useful in interpreting Resolution 242 because it reveals part of what the U.S. government had in mind in pushing the resolution through. It is a map of the area, showing the places of particular security concern to Israel. The map was prepared by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who made a study of Israeli security …to advise the President on what the security concerns of Israel were.* The study advised …that the security of Israel required Israel to receive parts of the territory of the West Bank as essential to its defense. In fact, all the studies of the Israeli security problem reached the same conclusion – from the security point of view, Israel must hold the high points in the West Bank and areas along the Jordan River. I do not know if the Joint Chiefs of Staff would draw a different map today, but I doubt is very much. * See Appendix D. Editor Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Resolutions 242 and 338” in Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and History, New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993 …all the studies of the Israeli security problem reached the same conclusion – from the security point of view, Israel must hold the high points in the West Bank and areas along the Jordan River

45. Remove Issue of Palestinian Statehood from International Agenda Delegitimize the Palestinian Narrative that Fuels Demands for Palestinian Statehood

46. Removal of Issue of Palestinian State from the International Agenda Does Not Remove ProblemofHumanitarianPlightof Palestinians Depoliticize Solution: Reformulate Palestinian Problem in Humanitarian rather than Political Terms Libertarian Tenets of Proposal: * Elimination of Discrimination in Treatment of Palestinians * Facilitation of Freedom of Individual Choice

47. Elimination of Discrimination in Treatment of Palestinians: • As Refugees – Elimination of UNWRA • As Residents– Elimination of Ethnic Bias in Arab Countries • Facilitationof Freedom of Individual Choice • Generous Family Grants for Relocation and Rehabilitation • “Atomize” Offer – Directly to Individual Bread Winners

48. Continue life under the Rigors of Israeli Control Life under and even more repressive and regressive Palestinian Regime Accept the Relocation Grant and build a new life of himself and his family Accept the Relocation Grant and build a new life of himself and his family Relocation and Rehabilitation as Individual Rational Choice The individual Palestinian would have the following choices:

49. Palestinian Survey 42% state that they have considered emigrating permanently to some other country Half the population (50%) state that they do not discount the possibility of emigrating permanently to another country if they had the means to do so, while almost 20% stated explicitly that they would emigrate permanently . In answer to the question "What would induce you to emigrate permanently, only 15% stated that nothing would induce them. Over 70% specified one or more material factors that would induce themto emigrate permanently - such as substantial financial compensation; guarantee of a good job abroad; a high standard of housing Survey was conducted as face to face interviews on 15-21 Nov, 2004 during various hours of the day, by means of a structured questionnaire in Arabic, among a random sample of 528 interviewees, representative of the adult population in Judea and Samaria(17yrs of age and above). Statistical margin of error 4.5%. The sampling and the interviews were conducted by pollsters of THE PALESTINIAN CENTER FOR PUBLIC OPINION. The questionnaire design , the data input, the statistical processing, the formulation of final report were done by Maagar Mohot Ltd. The survey was conducted by Maagar Mohot Interdisciplinary Research and Consulting Institute Ltd, under the supervision of Prof, Yitzhak Katz, Prof. Baruch Mevorach – Scientific Director, and Amir Horkin, Research Manager - in collaboration with THE PALESTINIAN CENTER FOR PUBLIC OPINION under the management of Dr.Nabil Kokli

50. October 24, 2006 http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1024/p04s01-wome.html- Fallout of Hamas's rule spurs Palestinian desire to flee A poll shows that a third of Palestinians want to leave because of violence and economic woes. By Joshua Mitnick | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor .. the percentage of Palestinians willing to relocate once hovered just below 20 percent. When that figure jumped to 32 percent in a September survey, Mr. Said says he was shocked."What the Israelis were unable to do - try to push the Palestinian out of the country - the internal strife is achieving," he says.Even more telling, adds Said, is that the percentage surges to 44 percent among Palestinians in their 20s and 30s. Among young men, it surges beyond 50 percent. Palestinian emigration on the rise JPost.com Staff, THE JERUSALEM POST Nov. 1, 2006 • Opinion Polls • Public Opinion Poll # 28 • Living Conditions • Highlights • 71% say that their living conditions have deteriorated since the January 2006 PLC elections. • 44% of young Palestinians are willing to immigrate if given the opportunity. • 62.3% feel that Palestinian society is not heading in the right direction. • 16.1% will be able to secure basic needs without a problem for another three months An-Najah National University Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll. No 24 16-18 November 2006 http://www.najah.edu/english/Centers/polls/poll25.asp -------------------------------------------------------- The General Results: * Within the present circumstances 31.4% of respondents said that they think of emigrating. *43.7% of respondents said that the main cause that compels them to think of emigrating is the poor economic situation.; 23.8%  said that it is lack of security.