Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry

1. Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Shipping Industry WMU Climate Change Workshop 7-8 June 2007 Malmo Tim Wilkins Regional Manager Asia Pacific / Environmental Manager tim.wilkins@intertanko.com

2. INTERTANKO • International Association of Independent Tanker Owners • Trade Association for tanker owners • 260 members, 40 countries, 2500 tankers, • 300 Associate Members • INTERTANKO office 25 persons • Representation – IMO, Brussels Washington • Information advisory service • Oslo – London - Washington – Singapore • Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry’s performance in striving to achieve the goals of: • Zero fatalities • Zero pollution • Zero detentions

3. Overview • Shipping effects on Climate Change • IMO discussions on Annex VI – CO2 and other GHGs • Fuel consumption enhancement • What will/does Climate Change mean? • Are we already witnessing the evolution of Climate Change effects? • Climate Change effects on Shipping • Based on the ‘Assumptions’ • What can the shipping industry expect

4. Climate Change • Assumptions (generalised) • Warmer Seas • Sea Level Rise • Unpredictable Weather Patterns

5. Climate Change • Warmer Seas • Invasive Species Risk Increase • Ballast water e.g. Great Lakes Viral Haemorrhagic Septicaemia • Continued importance of finding treatment systems for ballast water • Greater and increased vigilance by coastal states • Biofouling • Crucial role of anti-fouling systems and hull fouling management • Increased requirements on shipping industry associated with biofouling

6. Climate Change • Warmer Seas cntd. • Ice sheet reductions • Opening up of new sea routes • Oil spill response • Tug escort and ice breaker capability • Mammal population changes e.g. North Atlantic Right Whale • New navigation considerations • Sea Level Rise • Physical change of coastal zone • Change in port infrastructure and expansion • Physical change of water basin • Opening up of new inland navigable routes

7. Climate Change • Unpredictable Weather Patterns • Increased Storm intensity • Wave and swell height / periodicity increases • 100 year storm design criteria may need to be revised • Increased storm frequency • Raises question of fatigue analysis and design life of structure • Weather Routing • Increasing dependency in weather routing • Recognition of increased intensity of storms by commercial entities (consumer and charterer)

8. Climate Change • Unpredictable Weather Patterns cntd. • Warmer climate • Reduction of ice sheets leading to increased evaporation in smaller sea areas e.g. Great Lakes • Drought conditions • Reduced under keel clearance and reduced cargo loading capability • Terrestrial Matters • Drought / Storm frequency leading to increased sedimentation • Increased sediment loading of navigable channels • Increased dredging to maintain under keel clearance or • Reduced cargo carrying capabilities • New designs e.g. Stena V-Max • Emerging markets e.g. new agricultural, shifting oil demand • Changing trading patterns to be envisaged

9. Climate Change • Unpredictable Weather Patterns cntd. • Seasonal Changes • Tropical storms August to November now to January • Design life and fatigue issues (Atlantic storm/Pacific storm) • Shortened winters and decreased severity of winters will effect iced waterways • Increased trade opportunities

10. Conclusions • - Industry will need to know and understand the perceived physical and biological changes which climate change will bring • Time frame assessment – design and commercial consideration when investing in tonnage • Monitoring and assessment should begin on what can reasonably be attributed to climate change • Regional variations will be a major concern for an international industry

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