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Nigel Wyatt Executive Officer National Middle Schools’ Forum nigel.wyatt@dial.pipex

Leading middle schools where we all thrive Macdonald Alveston Manor Hotel Stratford on Avon Monday 15th October to Tuesday 16th October, 2018. Nigel Wyatt Executive Officer National Middle Schools’ Forum nigel.wyatt@dial.pipex.com www.middleschools.org.uk. AGM - Agenda.

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Nigel Wyatt Executive Officer National Middle Schools’ Forum nigel.wyatt@dial.pipex

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  1. Leading middle schools where we all thriveMacdonald Alveston Manor HotelStratford on AvonMonday 15th October to Tuesday 16th October, 2018 Nigel Wyatt Executive Officer National Middle Schools’ Forumnigel.wyatt@dial.pipex.com www.middleschools.org.uk

  2. AGM - Agenda • Chair's introductory remarks - Mark Walker (Somerset) • Minutes of AGM 2017 • Treasurer's Report - Laura Rawlings (Herts) • Executive Officer's report - Nigel Wyatt • NFF and middle schools • Wording of IDSR • Middle school accountability • Suggestions for the NMSF Development Priorities 2019 • Steering Committee Membership 2017/2018 • Planning for conference 2019 • A.O.B.

  3. Steering Committee Members 2018

  4. Steering Committee Meeting dates 2018 – 2019 Dates for Steering Committee Meetings for the coming year • Wednesday 7th November 2018 • Wednesday 6th March 2019 • Wednesday 5th June 2019 Meetings start at 10.30 - St Saviours Church, St George's Square, Pimlico,SW1V 9A

  5. Middle Schools There are currently over 50,000 pupils in109 middle schools. 82% of middle schools were judged to be good or better in their latest Ofsted inspection (Sept 2018) This figure has been stable for the last 4 years – and places our schools where you would expect them to be in comparison to primary and secondary school outcomes: Percentage of schools good or better (2018):

  6. Achievement at 16 Whether considering the achievements at grade 4 or grade 5 and above, students in three tier schools achieving higher outcomes than those in all schools. This was true in both 2016 and 2017: GCSE - 2017

  7. Average KS1 scores in infant and first schools are significantly higher than the national average for primary schools. Source: Mike Treadaway We worry about teachers inflating results; we should worry more about depression of baseline assessments, 5th March 2015, FFT Education Datalab

  8. Raised KS1 makes progress look lower The raised profile of KS1 scores in our first schools has the effect of lowering the apparent progress pupils make from KS1 to KS2 in middle (and junior) schools when compared to all primary schools. This bias is clearly evident in this table comparing published KS1 to KS2 progress by type of school: Average reading and maths KS2 value added scores by type of school, 2017 Source: Dave Thomson, Value added measures in performance tables: A recap of the main issues for primary schools, 14th May 2018 FFT Education Datalab

  9. New IDSR wording from September This situation is recognised by Ofsted who introduced revised wording for middle school pre-inspection IDSRs earlier this month: We know from published performance data that pupils at middle schools, on average, have lower progress scores at the end of key stage 2 than pupils at primary schools. Also, due to the age range of pupils at middle schools, pupils will have only attended a middle school for a short time before they take their key stage 2 tests and will still have a number of years left at the school. Inspectors should be aware of this and, as with any inspection, carefully consider a range of information and data including the progress of current pupils in all year groups. DfE have introduced similar wording to the performance tables – and removed the colour coding.

  10. Turning to achievement at KS2 Consider two middle schools with identical KS2 results in the chart below, both just below the floor target. The result could indicate an ineffective middle school as in the first case, but equally well this could indicate an ineffective first school combined with an effective middle school shown in the second example. Both middle schools achieve identical outcomes at KS2 –conclusion: No valid or reliable judgement about a middle school’s effectiveness can be drawn from its KS2 results alone.

  11. There is, then, a double problem for middle school accountability • Progress measures - The raised profile of KS1 scores in first schools, when compared to primary schools, makes the use of KS1 to KS2 progress measures in three tier systems unreliable - as David Thomson asserts the system is biased against middle schools. • Achievement at KS2 - The shared responsibility for delivering the KS2 curriculum means that no sound judgments about the effectiveness of a middle school can be drawn from its KS2 results.

  12. This has led to a cluster of related issues:

  13. Recent progress on these issues Progress of PP pupils – apology from DfE for sending inappropriate letters Coasting schools Round 1 - letters from RSC – apology from Sir David Carter for not following statutory guidance – new process for round 2 Middle schools labelled as coasting in inspection reports – now banned Presentation of data in Ofsted IDSR – new wording for middle school IDSR – IDSR no longer mentions coasting or floor targets Presentation of data in DfE School performance tables – colours no longer used for middle schools – new cautionary wording to match Ofsted IDSR Monitoring role of RSC staff – NW invited to present to RSC staff – paper of Datalab evidence circulated Remaining issues: • Ofsted risk assessment process for short inspection • Criteria for NLE/NLG and Teaching school accreditation

  14. Ofsted - September 2018 - Guidance to inspectors The statutory guidance, ‘Schools causing concern’ published by the DfE makes clear that, when inspecting a middle school, only the RSC can determine whether a middle school is coasting by looking at the school’s own data In general, pupils at middle schools and junior schools, on average, have lower key stage 2 progress scores than pupils at other primary schools, even though attainment of junior schools tends to be higher than that of other primary schools. If progress looks low, inspectors should use the IDSR to identify whether the prior attainment of the cohort seemed unusually high compared to national figures. This may indicate that the progress score reflects high teacher assessments at the end of key stage 1 from the first school feeding into a middle school…On inspection, inspectors need to consider how the middle/junior school's own assessment information triangulates with this to form an overall picture. Implications for inspectors Inspectors must no longer report whether a school meets the floor standards or coasting definition. All references to these definitions have been removed from the IDSRs for 2016/17 to support this change. Similarly, the imminent IDSRs for 2017/18 will not refer to floor standards or coasting.

  15. What we might hope for……….. Two middle school heads invited to small pre-consultation meeting in June Peter Jackson and Nivi Tank to speak tomorrow Consultation likely to open in November

  16. DfE - Financial benchmarking tool Comparing total expenditure per pupil – middle school with 450 to 500 pupils

  17. Offer to NMSF from GL Assessment Up to 6 ‘local’ Regional Assessment Workshops FREE to middle schools; these must be hosted at one of the middle schools where they will provide the necessary training room with projector, screen, wifi and simple refreshments. • either the 3hr attainment module which includes an overview of the whole pupil view, take a dive into the PT Series reports and what data you can get from them finishing with combination reports – how to combine data using PT Series and other GL products, suitable for customers who have PT Series plus any other GL products (NGRT, CAT4, PASS), • o   OR a 90 minute PT Series workshop focusing solely on the data within the various reports for Progress Test Series

  18. NFF and three tier funding This statement from a recent newspaper article is an alternative fact: This position is supported by the National Middle Schools Forum, which contends that middle and upper schools both received lower funding per pupil than secondary schools. South Somerset schools could become two-tier in bid for sustainability Chard and Ilminster News – 3rd October

  19. NFF – July 2018 announcement Minimum Funding per pupil (MFPP) The MFPP sets a floor for the funding of schools under NFF – it comes into play only if, after the calculation of the school ‘s budget using NFF, the funding per pupil falls below this minimum. It will only apply to a small number of schools. Remember also that currently the actual distribution to schools is determined locally by the Schools Forum - and this has been extended for one more year.

  20. MFPP – initial proposal In 2017 the Secretary of State announced that MFPP would be set at £4,800 per secondary pupil With a lower level for KS3 pupils at middle schools of £4,200 per pupil. The secondary figure of £4,800 was an average of KS3 and the higher KS4 rate It was argued that to fund middle schools at this higher figure of £4,800 would be to over fund them No consideration of the need for a compensating higher figure to fund our upper schools with their higher proportion of KS4 pupils

  21. Model calculationThree tier system

  22. Model calculationTwo tier school Total - (three tier) £6,156,000 - (two tier) £6,480,000 Difference (loss to three tier system) = £324,000

  23. The Recent Announcement by DFE – 2019-20 Changing the minimum per pupil funding levels for middle schools, Key Stage 3-only and Key Stage 4-only schools 27. We have reflected on the minimum per pupil funding levels for schools with some but not all secondary year groups. From 2019-20 we will: • Introduce a new minimum per pupil level for Key Stage 4-only schools of £5,100; • Increase the minimum used for the Key Stage 3 year groups in middle schools to £4,600 and use this minimum for Key Stage 3-only schools. This change responds to feedback from relevant schools, and we believe it is a fairer approach that also maintains the simplicity necessary for the formula.

  24. Progress … but not complete success DfE have increased the MFPP for KS3 pupils at middle schools by £400 per pupil from £4,200 to £4,600. Considerably reduces the difference in MFPP funding between equivalent two and three tier systems in the model calculation above– to £108,000 (down from £324,000) They have accepted the need for a higher KS4 rate of £5,100 – though currently it will only apply to schools that only have KS4 pupils. Upper schools will continue to be funded at the average funding per secondary pupil rate of £4,800 – need to continue to press for upper schools to be treated equitably.

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