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Global Warming Projection

Global Warming Projection. Shoji KUSUNOKI. Meteorological Research Institute Climate Research Department JAPAN. E-mail: skusunok@mri-jma.go.jp. Climate change studies using dynamical downscaling applications: Panama case, 18-29 September 2017, Panama City, Panama. Projection.

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Global Warming Projection

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  1. Global Warming Projection Shoji KUSUNOKI Meteorological Research Institute Climate Research Department JAPAN E-mail: skusunok@mri-jma.go.jp Climate change studies using dynamical downscaling applications: Panama case, 18-29 September 2017, Panama City, Panama

  2. Projection

  3. What is IPCC? One of organization of United Nations: Network of scientists Most reliable information on climate change Policymakers Policy Save the earth

  4. IPCC Reports

  5. Climate models

  6. Drivers of climate change IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013) Fig. 1.1

  7. Development of climate models IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013) Fig. 1.13

  8. Earth System Model (ESM) MRI-ESM1 Yukimoto et al. (2011)

  9. Models for IPCC AR5 / CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5: CMIP5

  10. Detection and attribution of climate change Observation IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013) SPM.6

  11. How to project future climate? Emission scenario Simple Carbon (CO2) cycle model Greenhouse gas (CO2) concentration Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) Future climate change

  12. Carbon (CO2) cycle IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013) Fig. 6.1

  13. Emission scenario for AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Major scenarios

  14. Global mean surface temperature Change from 1986-2005 mean IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013) Fig. SPM.7

  15. New method using ESM Emission scenario Earth System Model (ESM) coupled to carbon (CO2) cycle model Future climate change

  16. Two type of experiments for AR5

  17. Hydrological cycle change Available water resource Increase Decrease IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013) Fig. TS.TFE.1.3

  18. Sea Level Rise Rainfall amount Category 4-5 Frequency Lifetime IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013) Fig. SPM.9

  19. Sea Level Change Future : 2081-2100, RCP4.5 Thermal expansion only Present :1986-2005 IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013) Fig. 13.16

  20. Wave height change Future : 2075-2100, RCP4.5 Present :1980-2009 Annual mean significant wave height IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013) Fig. 13.16

  21. Risk and adaptation for small islands Livelihood Coast Coral reef Sea level IPCC AR5 WG2 (2014) Table29-4

  22. How to use model output? For scientist working on impact assessment studies

  23. Global warming projection is different from weather forecast External forcing = Sea surface temperature, CO2, O3, Aerosol

  24. Time-scale dependency of key factor Importance External forcing Initial condition day week month season year Atmosphere forgets initial condition after two weeks.

  25. Horizontal scale simulated by climate models Model can represent atmospheric phenomena which has horizontal scale of 3 to 5 times larger than its grid size. Comparing model output at one grid point with observation is NOT appropriate.

  26. 1-dimension case Precipitation mm/day Need three grid points to detect the location of rainfall. 1 Rain NO Rain NO Rain 0 grid 1 grid 2 grid3

  27. 2-dimension case NO Rain NO Rain NO Rain Rain NO Rain Need five grid points to detect the location of rainfall.

  28. Model can NOT reproduce individual event in present-day climate Daily precipitation time series over Tokyo region in year 1997 Model Observation

  29. Information at specific time and specific location has NO meaning in global warming projection. Temperature over Tokyo on 1st January 2100 projected by model has NO meaning. Need averaging in time and space Ten year average of January temperature from 2091 to 2100 for 3 to 5 grids point near Tokyo has some information.

  30. Precipitation over one of Mekong river basin Takeuchi et al. : International Centre for water Hazard And Risk Management (ICHARM), Japan

  31. Annual precipitation 20km model OBS 5 year average Each year Simulations for each year have errors. BUT agreement is much better for 5 year average.

  32. Model mountain is different from real mountain Model elevation tends to be lower than real elevation. Real Observational Station MODEL Elevation correction is required for temperature validation.

  33. 20km Topography Real 60km 120km 180km

  34. Near Mt. Fuji Height of mountain Real

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