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NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System ICAO Montreal, Quebec, Canada March 26-30, 2007. Victoria Cox US Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Operations, Vice President of Operations Planning.
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NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System ICAO Montreal, Quebec, Canada March 26-30, 2007 Victoria Cox US Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Operations, Vice President of Operations Planning
It’s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods • Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.5% of U.S. GDP • If expanded to include related industries, • it’s 9% of U.S. GDP • Contributes 10 million jobs to our economy
2025 NextGen Concept For full version, see: www.jpdo.aero Key Capabilities • Net-Enabled Information Access • Performance-Based Services • Weather-Assimilated Decision Making • Layered, Adaptive Security • Broad-Area Precision Navigation • Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations • “Equivalent Visual” Operations • “Super Density” Operations
Cost of Not Moving to NextGen Unconstrained Commercial Demand (TAF Growth) OEP H&S Capacity Estimate No Change Capacity Demand 175,000 155,000 135,000 $100 Billion Annual Economic Loss Uncons Comm Flights Per Day 115,000 $40 Billion Annual Economic Loss 95,000 OEP H&S 75,000 No Change 55,000 2004 2014 2024 2034 Demand by Year
Boeing Forecast 3X 2.4X • Significant Alternate Shift • Increase passengers per flight • A380, reverse RJ trend • Continue existing Biz shift • Smaller aircraft, more airports • Biz shift • 2% shift to micro jets 2014 2025 20?? Future Demand on the NAS Flights 1.4-3X ~3X Not to scale TAF Growth Ratios, Higher Rate TAF yields passenger growth of 1.8-2.4X in 2025 ~2X Enplanement Demand TAF Growth Ratios, Lower Rate Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Growth Projection 1X 2004
“Super Density” Airport Operations 2X – 4X Capacity Increase Distributed Airport Operations* Maximize use of Available Airspace And more… And more… 1.2X – 1.4X Capacity Increase Nearly match Good Wx Capacity “Equivalent Visual” Operations Weather Information in Decision Loops Performance-Based Services Aircraft Trajectory-Based Ops Broad Area Precision Navigation Net-Enabled Information Access 2025 NextGen Capabilities:Capacity Impacts Airport Capacity Airspace Capacity NextGen Capabilities Current Current Current Current *For Distributed Airport Operations, benefits are modeled by shifting traffic (Bizshift) to selected regional airports surrounding the 35 OEP airports Bad Wx Good Wx Good Wx Bad Wx
NextGen Performance: Dual Focus • Air Traffic Management • Improved Performance-based services • Area Navigation (RNAV) • Required Navigation Performance (RNP) • Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) • Improved Information Availability (SWIM) • Improved weather prediction availability and coordinated weather picture
NextGen Performance: Dual Focus • Aircraft and Operator Performance • Improved aircraft performance • Navigation and aircraft flight performance • Improved noise and emissions performance • Provide better decision quality data to pilots and air traffic controllers to enable higher-density operations with high level of safety
Agency Develops Near-Term Performance Goals Agency Executes Investments Monitors Performance JPDO Manages Outcomes against Plan National Plan Sets NextGen Objectives JPDO Develops NextGen Performance Assessment of Concepts – Sets Targets Monitoring Performance against NextGen Targets Enterprise Architecture: Performance Reference Model Flight Plan OEP Enterprise Architecture Adjust Plan Portfolio Management
ATO Dashboard Demonstrated Metrics Experience
Operational Evolution Partnership Metrics Measuring today ensures a successful tomorrow NAS Today
Key Near-Term Investments Current Programs OEP Solution Sets Initiate Trajectory Based Operations Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment Improve Collaborative ATM Reduce Weather Impact Increase Safety, Security, and Environmental Performance Transform Facilities • ERAM Enhancements • Automated Problem Resolution • Concept DemonstrationsTrajectory Based Ops/High Density • Infrastructure –Trajectory Based Ops • Time Based Metering • TFM-M Enhancements • Time-Based Metering ERAM STARS/CARTS ADS-B TMA TFM-M SWIM DATA Comm Precision Navigation Network Enabled Weather • RNP/RNAV Expansion • Precise Navigation • Data Communications • Flight Intent Downlink • ADS-B • Aircraft Separation • SWIM/Net-Enabled Weather • Net-Centric Information Sharing Enabling Infrastructure to Support NextGen Capabilities