Les “mobiles” – vont-ils changer notre mobilité?

1. Séminaire du GRT, Namur18 Avril 2005 Les “mobiles” – vont-ils changer notre mobilité? Prof. Dr. Barbara Lenz Centre Allemand de l’ Aérospace (DLR) – Institut de Recherche en Transport Berlin-Adlershofhttp://ivf.dlr.de

2. The „Dream of ICT Use“ • - having more time • - living in nice places ….. but : not being separatedfrom the world ! • NEGROPONTE 1995: • “In the digital life, it is not important to be in a certain place at a certain time, because places will be ‘transferable’.”

3. What are the consequences of anytime - anywhere? • multiplication of working places • fragmentation of working times • independence from time regulations • increased options for the performance of activities • decreased correlation between place or time and activity • increased use of ICT and transportation [technologies] ... and what makes this worth mentioning?

4. The history of time use: Time as a circle and a sequence of “events” • time as a circle of repeated events • flood of the Nile river • seasons • rebirth • time as a sequence of unique events with a beginning and an end • history • life and death • the universe

5. The history of time use: The organization of work as a pulse generator 1913: introduction ofthe assembly linein the FORD car factory

6. The definite use of places: “Tell me where you are and I tell you what you do”

7. Hypothesis If ICT had an impact on the work related behaviour of people, the following characteristics should show up: concerning the activity “work” flexible working time, e.g. professional work on week-ends or while traveling different working places, e.g. home, train, airplane concerning work related travel behaviour intensive use of ICT frequent traveling Impact of communication evolution on travel behaviour – working people

8. panel survey use of an existing panel of the marketresearch institute TNS Emnid written survey Five thematic fields: communication, mobility, work, shopping, leisure sample size: 3,500 people data collection: May and June 2003 representative for all German-speaking residents of the Federal Republic of Germany aged 14 and up ( -> 64.1 million people) results of extensive basic questionnaire Empirical work: used data

9. Methodological Approach GENERAL IDEA Signs of impact of ICT use on activities Data set Total: n=3,500 ACTIVITY “WORK” Work offers particular opportunities to use “new” times and places Employed persons n=1,612 ANALYSIS Search for structures within the data that indicate “new” behavior for the activity work Cluster analysis

10. Result of data clustering: Behavioral types

11. Characteristics of clusters Cluster 1: „Conventional Full Time Workers“ (n = 821) Cluster 2: „Mobile Phone Fragmenters“ (n = 264) Cluster 3: „Conventional Part Time Workers“ (n = 266) Cluster 4: „Mobile Computer Fragmenters“ (n = 62)

12. Characteristics of clusters Share of men Cluster 1: „Conventional Full Time Workers“ (n = 821) 59.1 Cluster 2: „Mobile Phone Fragmenters“ (n = 264) 75.5 Cluster 3: „Conventional Part Time Workers“ (n = 266) 15.0 Cluster 4: „Mobile Computer Fragmenters“ (n = 62) 82.0

13. Characteristics of clusters Education Cluster 1: „Conventional Full Time Workers“ (n = 821) 8.72 Cluster 2: „Mobile Phone Fragmenters“ (n = 264) 8.96 Cluster 3: „Conventional Part Time Workers“ (n = 266) 8.73 Cluster 4: „Mobile Computer Fragmenters“ (n = 62) 10.73

14. Characteristics of clusters Household income Cluster 1: „Conventional Full Time Workers“ (n = 821) 8.72 Cluster 2: „Mobile Phone Fragmenters“ (n = 264) 8.96 Cluster 3: „Conventional Part Time Workers“ (n = 266) 8.73 Cluster 4: „Mobile Computer Fragmenters“ (n = 62) 10.73

15. Particular ways to perform activities

16. Time windows used for the performance of activities Largest time windows have appeared for Cluster 4 for work. For leisure, too, Cluster 4 is the cluster with the largest time windows for “urban” activities and location independent sports activities. but: large time windows without ICT use leisure activities

17. Self-estimation of behavioral changes: mobile phone Since I have a mobile phone ... 1 I carry out many things while traveling. 5 I am much more on the road because one can reach me anywhere. 7 I am more relaxed concerning appointments as I can let people know in case I am getting late. Disagreement is predominating. Working behaviour has changed, but travel behaviour has not. Being in time for appointments represents still a social norm even for clusters 2 and 4.

18. Self-estimation of behavioral changes: use of the Internet 1 The Internet allows me to be more flexible so that I can do things at any time of the day. 2 I try to complete as many things as possible via Internet to save time. 6 The Internet helps me to carry out things much faster than I could do before . 8 I do several things deliberately via Internet to save travel. 9 Today, my days are more filled up than they were 5 years ago. Only cluster 4 confirms behavioural change. Internet is not used to save time, but it saves time “automatically”. Only cluster 4 uses the Internet deliberately to save travel..

19. Self-estimation of behavioral changes: use of the Internet for work 1 When there is a lot of work I take some of it to my home. 2 Also when I did not yet have a computer, I worked at home. 3 Since I have owned a computer, I work at home more often . 4 Sometimes, I take work home because I prefer to work at home. 5 If I work at home, it is important for me to have Internet connection. 6 I can do my work only at my regular physical working place. For all clusters Internet use continues existing routines . The use of the option to work elsewhere than at the “regular” working place is only [very slightly!] used by cluster 4. It relies on Internet availability and reduced physical constraints.

20. Young people travelling and using ICT • textextext

21. Some General Trends concerning Travel and ICT Use • changes in young people‘s travel behaviour in Germany : • – increasing use of the car as passenger and/or as driver (SCHOLL 2003) • – decreasing age for acquiring the driver‘s licence (HEYNE 2003) • – mobility becoming a crucial lifestyle element (KEMMING 2003) • development of ICT use – in particular Internet and mobile phone: • – rapid increase of Internet use: 87% of 14-19, 83% of 20-29 (DZFA 4/2004) • – rapid increase in mobile phone availability: 80% of teens own a mobile phone, for more than 90% a mobile phone is available (SHELL 2002) • – communication is the outstanding objective for Internet and mobile phone use (JIM 2003, TULLY 2003)

22. How to Identify Impact of ICT on Travel Behaviour? • (1) How can ICT use affect travel behaviour? • – by modifying the way people travel • – by modifying the way how activities are performed • – by modifying the way how activities are planned and organised • (2) Which effects occur specifically for young people?

23. The Identification Process of the Potential Impact of ICT on Travel Behaviour ICT use activities travel behaviour purposes of ICT use activities carried out [potential] modifica-tion of performance of activities [potential] modifica-tion of organsiation of activities [potential] modification of the travel behaviour related to the relevant activities

24. The Data Set • DLR survey carried out by TNS Emnid • May 12 – June 3, 2003 • 3.500 respondents out of a panel population provided by TNS Emnid • respondents of an age of 14+ • by measure of age and gender structure of the data set, the data are representative for the German speaking population of 14+ (= 64,1 mill.) • age structure of the sample:14-17 years …..….. 14918-25 years …..….. 33426-34 years …..….. 50335-44 years …..….. 62945-54 years …..….. 61855-64 years …..….. 52265 years or more .. 745 13.8%

25. The Purposes of ICT Use: Internet Use

26. Particular Purposes of Internet Use

27. The Purposes of ICT Use: Mobile Phone Use

28. Activity Patterns only activities with a frequency index > 2

29. Modification of Activities by Internet Use: Self Estimation of Respondents applies entirely applies more or less applies two ways tends not to apply does not apply at all

30. Modification of Activities by Mobile Phone Use: Self Estimation of Respondents applies entirely applies more or less applies two ways tends not to apply does not apply at all

31. Affinity to Transport Modes I like it very much I don‘t like it at all

32. Activity Specific Car Use

33. Influencing Variables on Mobile Phone Use by Age Groups

34. Conclusions How does ICT use affect travel behaviour of young people? – by modifying the way people travel  a tendency towards an increasing car use because of more flexibility can be assumed but not be proofed by the data – by modifying the activities that make people travel  effects remain on a low level – by modifying the way how activities are performed  the organisation of activities is modified in particular by the use of the mobile phone; the majority of young people in Germany, however, do not estimate that their travel behaviour has changed substantially The scale of ICT use is much larger for young people, but its relationship to mobility is almost the same throughout the investigated age groups.