The National Climate Assessment

1. The National Climate Assessment North American Carbon Program All-Investigators’ Meeting February 2, 2011 Emily Therese Cloyd Public Participation and Engagement Coordinator, NCA http://assessment.globalchange.gov

2. Global Change Research Act (1990), Section 106 • On a periodic basis (not less frequently than every 4 years), the Council, through the Committee, shall prepare and submit to the President and the Congress an assessment which – • integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; • analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and • analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.

3. Previous National Climate Assessments Climate Change Impacts on the United States (2000) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (2009) Target date for next NCA: June 2013

4. The Next National Climate Assessment • Sustainable process with multiple products over time • New topics, cross-sectoral studies • Consistent national matrix of indicators • Central coordination, multiple partners • Regional and sectoral networks; building assessment capacity • Recognizes international context • Education and communications focus • Web-based data and tools for decision support • Process workshops to establish methodologies

5. Mission ...to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known and not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation and mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors

6. Suggested Assessment Structure National Research Council Communication, Education, and Events Coordination Committee CENRS / OSTP External Peer Review Team USGCRP Agencies + Interagency National Climate Assessment (INCA) Task Force Assessment Staff National Climate Assessment Development and Advisory Committee Network of Partners and Stakeholders Federal Executive Team FAC Subcommittees and Assessment / Author Teams Assessment Technical Support and Coordination Unit(s) Federal Advisory Committee Technical and Coordination Units (feds + non-feds) Regional Capacity Team Sectoral Capacity Team Cross-Cutting Issues Team FAC Authoring Teams (feds + non-feds) Non-Fed External Team

7. Assessment Activities to Date • Interagency National Climate Assessment (INCA) team – 18 agencies • NOAA-sponsored external Federal Advisory Committee (first meeting Winter 2011*) • Draft strategic plan • Strategic planning workshop (February 2010) • Discussed with four National Academies panels (Climate Research Committee, Human Dimensions of Global Change, America’s Climate Choices and Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate) • Draft outline and work plan for the 2013 document • Federal Register Notice/Comments • Planning/implementation of “process” workshops and scoping sessions • Presentations and listening sessions at professional and agency meetings • Agreement to fund the NCA coordination office on a continuing basis * February 3-4 meeting canceled due to weather

8. Federal Advisory Committee • 34 non-federal members, 13 federal agency representatives, 4 liaisons to related activities • Wide variety of expertise • Providing advice on the ongoing process • Responsible for the report to the President and Congress • First meeting Winter 2011 (Washington, DC)* * February 3-4 meeting canceled due to weather

9. Process Workshops • Midwest Regional Workshop (February 2010) Final report online • Strategic Planning (February 2010) Final report online • Product Outline and Work Plan (June 2010) Federal Register Notice (September 2010), Comments available online • International (July 2010 scoping meeting) Discussion at FAC meeting • Communications (August 2010 scoping meeting) Discussion at FAC meeting • Knowledge Management (September 2010) Final report online • Planning for Regional and Sectoral Assessments (November 2010)Draft report in review • Monitoring Climate Change and Its Impacts: Indicators, Detection, and Attribution • Ecosystems (November 2010)Draft report in review • Physical Climate (March 2011) Planning committee convened • Social (April 2011) Planning committee convened • Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future (December 2010) Report in development • Climate Change Modeling and Scaling (December 2010) Report in development • Economic and Alternative Valuation Techniques and Metrics (January 2011) Report in development • Vulnerability Assessment Techniques (January 2011) Report in development

10. Products • A report or reports to Congress that meet the requirements of the GCRA in a timely fashion • Web-based data and products that have been vetted through Assessment procedures • Assessment and science translation capacity at multiple scales in regions, sectors, and institutions • Ongoing national evaluations of changes in climate trends, impacts, risks and vulnerability based on selected indicators and standard assessment methods • Process documentation including guidelines, metadata, quality assurance and review procedures • Communications and education products that facilitate broader understanding of climate issues and impacts

11. NCA Outline • Background and Context for the Process • The Scientific Basis for Climate Change • Sectors • Regions • Integrated, Cross-Cutting and Cross-Boundary Topics • Human Responses to Climate ChangeAdaptation, Mitigation, Interactions and Integration • Future Scientific and Societal Needs • Appendices

12. NCA Product OutlineSuggested Sectors • Natural environment (ecosystems) • Biological diversity • Agriculture and forestry • Land resources • Water resources • Marine resources • Energy production and use (including renewable energy and energy efficiency) • Transportation • Human health and welfare • Human social systems (including impacts on cultures and cultural resources)

13. Northeast Southeast and Caribbean Midwest Great Plains Northwest Southwest Alaska and Arctic Hawaii and Pacific Islands NCA Product OutlineSuggested Regions + Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa and other minor outlying islands + Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands

14. NCA Product OutlineSuggested Integrated, Cross-Cutting and Cross-Boundary Topics • Water, energy, and land possibly in the context of or linked to biofuels • Ecosystems, agriculture, and biogeochemical (carbon and nitrogen) cycles • Cross-cutting issues within biophysical regions intersection of ecosystems, development, and communities, e.g., • Watersheds • Coasts and estuaries • Arid/semi-arid areas • High elevation areas • Urban areas, infrastructure, and health • Rural environments • Environmental justice • Native American and Alaska Native populations • Disasters, risk management, and community preparedness and resilience • International linkages trade routes and patterns, food and energy security, and international and transboundary agreements

15. Time Line • Winter 2011: First FAC meeting • Spring 2011: Process workshops complete • Spring- Fall 2011: Regional and sectoral workshops • June 2012: Full draft of report available for review • June 2013: Publication of Third National Climate Assessment

16. Questions and Comments Emily Therese Cloyd: ecloyd@usgcrp.gov http://assessment.globalchange.gov

17. Back-up and Additional Slides

18. Objectives • Allow for the development of multiple authoritative and credible products over time that respond to GCRA requirements, and also support other ongoing and/or targeted climate assessment needs (e.g. regional, sectoral, cross-sectoral) • Evaluate the state of climate impacts on regions and sectors, support adaptation and mitigation activities, and identify information needs and opportunities • Evaluate changes in trends, vulnerabilities and risks related to climate in the context of other stressors

19. Objectives (cont.) • Efficiently coordinate national assessment efforts across regions and sectors at multiple scales • Build a sustained, collaborative network of partners and stakeholders inside and outside of the government who are engaged in the process, maximizing integration with related public and private sector efforts and institutions • Develop effective and efficient communications, outreach and engagement processes, including alternative media (social networking, web-based tools, etc.) • Integrate Assessment activities with educational efforts related to climate change, mitigation, adaptation and sustainability

20. Objectives (cont.) • Maximize engagement of federal agencies and assist in interagency coordination of federal climate science activities • Support and enhance the “boundary function” for climate science, allowing for expanded applications and utility of climate program investments for decision support • Make the best use of learning from prior assessments, including NRC reports, and develop an adaptive approach that responds to new information over time • Include consideration of economic implications of both action and inaction in responding to impacts

21. Objectives (cont.) • Provide equitable access to information that supports adaptation and mitigation, especially in the regions, ecosystems, populations and systems (transportation, energy, etc.) that are identified as most vulnerable • Support evaluations of the interactions between adaptation and mitigationactivities • Develop scenarios and model output that can be used for multiple purposes

22. National Climate Assessment Team • NCA Core Office • Director – Kathy Jacobs (OSTP) • NCA Coordinator – Sheila O’Brien (USGCRP) • Public Participation and Engagement Coordinator – Emily Therese Cloyd (USGCRP) • Sectoral Coordinator – Ralph Cantral (on detail from NOAA) • Senior Scientist – Fred Lipschultz (on detail from NASA) • Program Specialist – Bryce Golden-Chen (USGCRP) • Intern – Julie Maldonado (USGCRP) • Part-Time Detailees – Chris Clark (AAAS Fellow / EPA), Melissa Kenney (AAAS Fellow / NOAA), Maxine Levin (USDA NRCS) • Previous Detailee – Paul Schramm (CDC) • NOAA NCDC Assessments TSU • TSU Chair / Assessment Services Program Manager – Anne Waple • Lead Scientist (half time) – Ken Kunkel (CICS / NC State) • Technical Lead / Web Developer – John Keck • Executive Assistant / Scientific Coordinator – Brooke Stewart • Administrative Assistant – Julie Moore

23. NCA Product OutlineBackground and Context for the Process • Purposemission, objectives, and intended audience • Backgroundlegal requirements, explanation of previous rounds of assessment, and ways in which USGCRP is responding to advice from the National Research Council • General scope for the NCA global change and climate variability and change, limitations of the process, implications of both variability and change, climate in the context of other stressors, opportunities and challenges, etc. • Assessment process timeline, methods and design, indicators and other tools for assessing climate change and impacts, synthesizing regional data from multiple sources, the importance of scenarios and narratives, understanding what we do and don’t know, communicating uncertainty, risk-based framework, sources of material, and common lexicon / glossary of terms • Approachincluding an overview of methodological innovations (e.g., indicators)/conclusions derived from material generated by the “process workshops”

24. NCA Product OutlineThe Scientific Basis for Climate Change • What climate change is and what it means for the U.S. summarizing and interpreting the science, climatology vs. projected conditions, new maps and projections, regional climate drivers and impacts, and climate variability and change and climate extremes • Current observations of global change and projections of future changes detecting the impacts of climate change through a set of indicators for long-term assessment, models and scenarios, and vulnerability assessment • Overview of research and experience with human responses to climate change adaptation and mitigation • Interpreting the science assessing the value of information and science and execution of decisions • What we know and don’t know about global and regional climate models why and how they are useful and under what circumstances; credibility of regional projections • Communicating and decision making in the context of uncertainty scales of time, space, and decisions and prioritizing which uncertainties are important to reduce; priority research topics related to uncertainty

25. NCA Product OutlineSectors • Key findings for the sector • Key social, economic, and ecological impacts • Major vulnerabilities • Major opportunities • Introduction - description/definition of the sector • Geographic scope of sector • Recent trends in the sector • Significant climate-related features of the sectors • Socioeconomic characteristics of sector that are relevant to understanding impacts, adaptation and vulnerability • International linkages and implications • Climate context for the sector • Observed impacts of climate variability and change on the sector • Projected impacts of climate on the sector (linked to scenarios for NCA) • Environmental and societal stressors / drivers that intersect with climate change • Socioeconomic drivers • Technology and policy drivers • Non-climate environmental drivers • Interactive effects between climate and other drivers (link to cross-sectoral analyses) • Key sectoral issues (vulnerabilities and opportunities) • Current or planned adaptation and mitigation options; state of understanding of effectiveness of these options • Critical unknowns and research needs • Conclusions/findings

26. NCA Product OutlineRegions • Key findings for the region • Key social, economic, and ecological impacts • Major vulnerabilities • Major opportunities • Issues-focused introduction to the region’s physical, biological, socioeconomic, and institutional setting • Environmental and societal issues that intersect with climate change and potential scenarios or visions for future socioeconomic conditions • Summary of regional climate and projected climate changes • Potential climate impacts within the region for key sectors • Cross-boundary and international issues related to climate (with particular attention to biophysical and socioeconomic systems that cross boundaries,) • Current or planned adaptation / mitigation options • Discussion of future information needs

27. NCA Product OutlineIntegrated, Cross-Cutting and Cross-Boundary Topics • A variety of treatments is possible (e.g., text boxes, spotlight sections, mini-chapters, full chapters) • Description of the system and clarification of the key issues • Possible thresholds and tipping points, role of extreme events • Pathways for solutions (adaptation and mitigation), including potential for unintended consequences • Case studies

28. NCA Product OutlineHuman Responses to Climate Change • The approach to this section will depend on current high level discussions about federal research on human responses. As a scientific assessment, the NCA will not be policy prescriptive. Possible sections include the following: • An assessment of the science to gauge the Nation’s ability to respond relative to the magnitude of current and anticipated impacts • Inventory of human responses to date • Assessment of the costs and benefits of possible human responses • Identification of research needs based on input from regional, sectoral, and cross-cutting assessments • Suggested topics • Adaptation • Mitigation (limiting future climate change) • Scientific implications of the interactions between human responses (e.g., management of forests to sequester carbon and increase resilience, management of heat island responses, and transportation impacts)

29. NCA Product OutlineFuture Scientific and Societal Needs • Science gap analysis for this round of assessment • Priorities for climate science investments (including impacts and responses) • Facilitating decisions related to climate impacts and responses

30. NCA Product OutlineAppendices • Describing the process used to produce the 2013 report and the longer-term, sustained assessment process • Long-term data sets, observations, monitoring, and sources • Models • Scales and interactions • Scenarios and narratives • Risk-based frameworks and “nested matrix” • Impact assessment • Vulnerability assessment • Economic and alternative valuation techniques • Decision making in the context of imperfect information • Indicators: A commitment to detecting change through monitoring and observations • Knowledge management strategies • Communications and engagement • Interactions with other types of assessments (e.g., IPCC, state-level assessments, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment) • Building capacity within regions and sectors for conducting and using assessments in the future