How much technology transfer takes place in the CDM?

1. How much technology transfer takes place in the CDM? TETRIS conference, Brussels, November 30th, 2006 Heleen de Coninck

2. Definition of technology transfer (IPCC, 2000) • “A broad set of processes covering • the flows of know-how, experience and equipment • for mitigating and adapting to climate change • amongst different stakeholders such as governments, private sector entities, financial institutions, NGOs and research/education institutions.”

3. Approach • Researched three aspects of technology transfer for CDM: • Origin (outside of host country?) • New or improved (not business as usual in the host country) • Knowledge transfer or capacity building • Based on PDDs, publications, email with project developers • Calculation of investment value: based on estimate of the capital costs per project per technology • Registered projects on 1st January, 2006, examined • 63 projects in 20 countries • Total emission reduction of 28 MtCO2-eq per year

4. Technologies used - Number of projects

5. Technologies used - GHG reduction

6. Technology transfer - origin of technology • Landfill gas: mainly Netherlands • N2O reduction: mainly from France • HFC-23 destruction: Japan, UK and Germany • Methane capture: host country • Hydropower: various: Spain, France, Japan, Switzerland and the United States and host countries • Wind energy: Spain and Denmark • Bio-energy: host country

7. Technology transfer - new or improved Word of caution: country “available technology” sometimes unclear; diffusion into other areas in same country omitted

8. Technology transfer - capacity building/knowledge transfer Word of caution: Difficult to check; relying on PDD, which has an interest in exaggerating

9. Which technologies are transferred?

10. Investment value per technology • Total value: 470 million euro Investment costs: rough numbers, so very large uncertainties

11. Investment value per country

12. So? • CDM can be associated with technology transfer; mainly in • large-scale non-CO2 greenhouse gases • wind energy • Small-scale technologies tend to be local, particularly bio-energy and agricultural projects • Hydropower shows a mix of countries of origin • Capacity building or knowledge transfer appears to have taken place in almost half of the projects • Investment value of Annex I to non-Annex I technology transfer about 470 million Euro • Compare: CER value of ca. 140 million Euro (@ 5 euro/tCO2-eq) • Biggest CER buyers do not equal the biggest technology exporters • United States also exports some 50 million Euro but isn’t leading

13. Future developments • Extrapolation of the results, even to the present, difficult for several reasons • Number has risen to 450 projects • Lots of new technologies • Analysis outdated but still relevant • Of course, future depends on post-2012 developments, persistence of the carbon market, and potential reform of the CDM • Increasingly manufacturing of technologies in host countries (e.g. wind energy industries in India, China) • On the other hand, as potential for technology transfer grows with market, more export potential for technologies from EU and Japan