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Scientific Creativity, Logic, and Chance:

Scientific Creativity, Logic, and Chance:. The Integration of Product, Person, and Process Research Traditions. Introduction. The Metasciences History of Science Philosophy of Science Sociology of Science Psychology of Science. The Two Psychologies of Science. Experimental

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Scientific Creativity, Logic, and Chance:

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  1. Scientific Creativity, Logic, and Chance: The Integration of Product, Person, and Process Research Traditions

  2. Introduction • The Metasciences • History of Science • Philosophy of Science • Sociology of Science • Psychology of Science

  3. The Two Psychologies of Science • Experimental • The Process of Scientific Discovery • Creativity as Logical Problem Solving • Correlational • The Person of the Creative Scientist • Creativity as Personal Attribute

  4. Potential Integration? • Third Point of Attack • The Product • Behavioral rather than Experimental or Psychometric • in vivo rather than in vitro (Dunbar)

  5. Creative Products • Scientific Careers: • Publications • Scientific Communities: • Multiples

  6. Publications • Individual Variation • Longitudinal Change

  7. Individual Variation • Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution

  8. Individual Variation • Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution • Lotka’s Law

  9. Individual Variation • Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution • Lotka’s Law • Price’s Law

  10. Individual Variation • Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution • Lotka’s Law • Price’s Law • Quantity-Quality Relation

  11. Individual Variation • Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution • Lotka’s Law • Price’s Law • Quantity-Quality Relation • Mass Producers and Perfectionists?

  12. Individual Variation • Skewed Cross-sectional Distribution • Lotka’s Law • Price’s Law • Quantity-Quality Relation • Mass Producers and Perfectionists? • No … the Equal-Odds Rule • Continuum Connecting the Silent and the Prolific

  13. Longitudinal Change • Randomness of Career-Wise Output • No “runs” • Poisson Distribution • Quantity-Quality Relation • Random Fluctuation Around Quality Ratio Baseline • Hence, the Equal-Odds Rule

  14. Multiples • Distribution of Multiple Grades

  15. Multiples • Distribution of Multiple Grades • Temporal Separation of Multiple Discoveries

  16. Multiples • Distribution of Multiple Grades • Temporal Separation of Multiple Discoveries • Individual Variation in Multiple Participation

  17. Multiples • Distribution of Multiple Grades • Temporal Separation of Multiple Discoveries • Individual Variation in Multiple Participation • Degree of Multiple Identity

  18. Combinatorial Processes • Definitions • Assumptions • Implications • Elaboration • Objections

  19. Definitions • Individual • Domain • Field

  20. Assumptions • Individual Samples from Domain Ideas

  21. Assumptions • Individual Samples from Domain Ideas • Within-Field Variation in Sample Size

  22. Assumptions • Individual Samples from Domain Ideas • Within-Field Variation in Sample Size • Quasi-Random Combination of Ideas

  23. Assumptions • Individual Samples from Domain Ideas • Within-Field Variation in Sample Size • Quasi-Random Combination of Ideas • Variation in Quality of Combinations

  24. Assumptions • Individual Samples from Domain Ideas • Within-Field Variation in Sample Size • Quasi-Random Combination of Ideas • Variation in Quality of Combinations • Variation in Size of Fields

  25. Assumptions • Individual Samples from Domain Ideas • Within-Field Variation in Sample Size • Quasi-Random Combination of Ideas • Variation in Quality of Combinations • Variation in Size of Fields • Communication of Ideational Combinations

  26. Implications • Research Publications • Cross-sectional Variation • Longitudinal Change • Multiple Discoveries • Multiple Grades

  27. Implications • Research Publications • Cross-sectional Variation • Longitudinal Change • Multiple Discoveries • Multiple Grades • Temporal Separation

  28. Implications • Research Publications • Cross-sectional Variation • Longitudinal Change • Multiple Discoveries • Multiple Grades • Temporal Separation • Multiples Participation

  29. Implications • Research Publications • Cross-sectional Variation • Longitudinal Change • Multiple Discoveries • Multiple Grades • Temporal Separation • Multiples Participation • Multiple Identity

  30. Elaboration • Aggregated Data on Career Output • Aggregated Across Time Units • Aggregated Across Scientists • Cognitive Combinatorial Model • Longitudinal Submodel • Individual-Differences Submodel • Integrated Model

  31. Objections • Alternative Explanations? • Multiplicative Models? • Cumulative Advantage? • Explanatory Limitations? • Too Abstract? • Yes, so ...

  32. Scientific Activity • Individuals: Research Programs • Fields: Peer Review • Domains: Disciplinary Zeitgeist

  33. Individuals: Research Programs • The Features of High-Impact Programs • Repercussions of those Features

  34. The Features of High-Impact Programs • Multiple Projects • Network of Enterprises (Gruber) • Variability in Nature of Projects

  35. Projects Vary According to ... • Research Topic • Degree of Risk • Intrinsic Importance • Programmatic Relevance • Amount of Progress • Type of Research • Current Degree of Effort

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