Building a Forest Systems Diagram

1. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Activity 5: Managing Forests for Change

2. Systems • A system is… a set of variables that interact with each other and with the environment

3. Systems are Everywhere Sun, planets, asteroids, gravity, energy, satellites… Solar system Producers, harvesters, processors, marketers, consumers… Food system Students, teachers, administrators, schools, buses, curriculum, FCAT… School system

4. Key Characteristics of Systems • Variables • Interconnectedness • Dynamic • Self Organization • Stable States • Tipping Points • Feedback Loops

5. What is Systems Thinking? • A way of viewing the whole instead of the parts • Helps us understand complex phenomena • Not only direct cause and effect • Examines indirect connections • Helps us identify • Underlying causes • Places where we might change the system

6. One Tool for Seeing Systems • A diagram or map to model the system • Causal loop diagram • Links variables in relationships • Identify the variables • Decide how they influence each other ? Hunger Eat food

7. Connecting Variables Example: Grades B A • If variables move in the SAME direction • If A goes up, B goes up • If A goes down, then B goes down • If variables move in OPPOSITE directions • If A goes up, then B goes down • If A goes down, then B goes up Grade earned on a test Amount of time studying ? S O

8. Connecting Variables Example: Grades S B A Grade earned on a test Amount of time studying

9. Studying and Grades A B S Amount of time studying Grade earned on a test Amount of time watching TV ? • Variables move in the SAME direction • If A goes up, B goes up • If A goes down, then B goes down • Variables move in OPPOSITE directions • If A goes up, then B goes down • If A goes down, then B goes up S O

10. Studying and Grades A B S Amount of time studying Grade earned on a test O Amount of time watching TV

11. Studying and Grades S S Amount of time studying Grade earned on a test O Amount of time watching TV

12. And a Forest Is a System! • Many things influence Tree growth and forest health • Trees and forests influence many things

13. Forest Concepts (Variables) for Systems Diagram Tree growth High-intensity wildfire Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water Risk of Tree disease Risk of wildfire Available water Available nutrients Tree disease Understory fuel load Forest density

14. Tree Growth • Growth per Tree • Gain of new Trees • Loss of dead Trees

15. Forest Density High Density Low Density

16. Disease Scale Infestation on pine needles Fusiform rust

17. Fuel Load and Wildfire Thick undergrowth increases chance of a high-intensity wildfire. A prescribed fire can reduce that understory.

18. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water High-intensity wildfire Tree disease Available nutrients Risk of wildfire Available water Risk of Tree disease Understory fuel load Forest density

19. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease Risk of Tree disease

20. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree disease S Risk of Tree disease

21. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Risk of wildfire Understory fuel load

22. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Risk of wildfire S Understory fuel load

23. Building a Forest Systems Diagram High-intensity wildfire S Risk of wildfire S Understory fuel load

24. Building a Forest Systems Diagram High-intensity wildfire S S X Risk of wildfire S Understory fuel load

25. Building a Forest Systems Diagram High-intensity wildfire S Risk of wildfire S Understory fuel load

26. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water High-intensity wildfire Tree disease S S Available nutrients Available water Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease S Understory fuel load Forest density

27. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth High-intensity wildfire Tree disease S S Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease S Understory fuel load

28. Building a Forest Systems Diagram O Tree growth High-intensity wildfire Tree disease S S Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease S Understory fuel load

29. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth Tree growth O O High-intensity wildfire High-intensity wildfire Tree disease Tree disease S S Risk of wildfire Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease S Understory fuel load

30. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease S S Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease S Understory fuel load

31. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease S S Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease S Understory fuel load

32. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease S S Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease S Understory fuel load

33. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease S S Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease S Understory fuel load

34. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease S S Risk of wildfire Risk of Tree disease S Understory fuel load

35. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease O O S S Available nutrients Risk of wildfire Available water Risk of Tree disease S Understory fuel load

36. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water O O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease O O S S S Available nutrients Risk of wildfire Available water Risk of Tree disease S Understory fuel load Forest density

37. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water O O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease O O S S S Available nutrients Risk of wildfire Available water Risk of Tree disease S Understory fuel load Forest density

38. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease O O S S S Available nutrients Risk of wildfire Available water Risk of Tree disease S O Understory fuel load Forest density

39. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease O O S S S Available nutrients Risk of wildfire Available water Risk of Tree disease S O Understory fuel load Forest density

40. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water O O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease O O S S S Available nutrients Risk of wildfire Available water Risk of Tree disease S S Understory fuel load Forest density

41. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease O O S S S Available nutrients Risk of wildfire Available water Risk of Tree disease S S Understory fuel load Forest density

42. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease O O S S S Available nutrients Risk of wildfire Available water Risk of Tree disease S O O S S Understory fuel load Forest density

43. Building a Forest Systems Diagram Tree growth O O Tree stress from lack of nutrients/water O High-intensity wildfire Tree disease O O O S S S Available nutrients Risk of wildfire Available water Risk of Tree disease O S O O S S Understory fuel load Forest density