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Population Growth and Demographic Measures

This article explores the growth of population worldwide and its impact on resources, using mathematical models and historical data. It also discusses factors affecting population growth rates.

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Population Growth and Demographic Measures

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  1. Basic Demographic Measures Population Growth Forum Region 10 Service Center Dallas, Texas July 14, 2016 @TexasDemography

  2. World Population Growth, in Billions Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) First Billion Second 130 (1930) 30 (1960) Third 15 (1975) Fourth Fifth 12 (1987) Sixth 12 (1999) Seventh 14 (2013) 14 (2027) Eighth 21 (2048) Ninth Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

  3. Growth in More, Less Developed Countries Billions 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 Less Developed Regions 3 2 1 More Developed Regions 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

  4. Trends in Population Growth Worldwide Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods 87 90 2 83 80 79 1.8 76 76 80 75 72 Percent increase per year 1.6 70 1.4 60 1.2 50 Millions 1 40 0.8 30 0.6 20 0.4 10 0.2 0 0 1980- 1985 1985- 1990 1990- 1995 1995- 2000 2000- 2005 2005- 2010 2010- 2015 2015- 2020 Net population added per year Annual population growth rate Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

  5. Thomas Malthus Essay on the Principle of Population • Relationship between population and resources • Population growth threatened prosperity because it inevitably outran increases in food supplies • agricultural production grew arithmetically, increasing by the same amount over 25 years • population grew geometrically, doubling every 25 years

  6. Population Clock

  7. Modeling population and its consequences Some models show population growth leading to resource depletion, which can result in declining food production, industrial output, and population.

  8. Increasing our carrying capacity Technology has allowed us to raise Earth’s carrying capacity for our species time and again. Tool-making, agriculture, and industrialization each enabled humans to sustain greater populations.

  9. Arithmetic Growth population increases by a constant number of persons for each period arithmetic growth entails constant increments

  10. Geometric Growth Geometric growth entails ever larger increments. Population increments become larger because increases are self-reinforcing “compound interest”

  11. Exponential Growth Exponential growth refers to the situation where growth compounds continuously - at every instant of time.

  12. Annual Growth Rates

  13. Logistic growth “universal law of population growth” S-shaped trend is a more realistic depiction of long-run national or global population growth than straight lines or exponential curves

  14. Extrapolation of Texas Population Using Historical Data (1850-1990) -Exponential 50,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 y = 406819e0.2695x 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Population Expon. (Population)

  15. Extrapolation of Texas Population Using Historical Data (1850-1990) - Logistic 50,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Population Log. (Population)

  16. Extrapolation of Texas Population Using Historical Data (1850-1990) - Linear 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 y = 1E+06x - 3E+06 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Population Linear (Population)

  17. Extrapolation of Texas Population Using Historical Data (1850-1990) -Polynomial 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 y = -54.89x5+ 3104.9x4- 54032x3+ 422923x2- 795476x + 708676 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Population Poly. (Population)

  18. Extrapolation of Texas Population Using Historical Data (1850-1990) -Polynomial 60,000,000 50,000,000 y = -54.89x5+ 3104.9x4- 54032x3+ 422923x2- 795476x + 708676 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Population Poly. (Population)

  19. Analyzing Growth • Absolute change • Percent change • Average annual increase • Arithmetic growth rate

  20. Geometric Growth • Estimating intercensal numbers, or projecting future population, assuming that the growth rate remains constant (growth rates usually vary through time)

  21. Geometric Growth

  22. Growth and Replacement

  23. Age structure: Age pyramids Canada (left) has a much slower growing population than does Madagascar (right).

  24. Age structure: “Graying populations” Demographers project that China’s population will become older over the next two decades.

  25. Factors affecting population growth rates Population growth depends on rates of birth, death, immigration, and emigration. (birth rate + immigration rate) – (death rate + emigration rate) = population growth rate

  26. Natural rate of population change Change due to birth and death rates alone, excluding migration Is often expressed in % per year

  27. China’s natural rate of change has fallen China’s rate has fallen with fertility rates. It now takes the population 4 times as long to double as it did 25 years ago.

  28. Global growth rates have fallen The annual growth rate of the world population has declined since the 1960s. (But the population size is still rising)

  29. Fertility rates affect population growth rates Total fertility rate (TFR) = average number of children born per woman during her lifetime Replacement fertility = the TFR that keeps population size stable For humans, replacement fertility is about 2.1.

  30. Total fertility rates by region African nations have the highest TFRs. European nations have the lowest TFRs.

  31. INTERPOLATION OF POINT DATA • Interpolation - inferring intermediate values in a given series of data by use of a mathematical formula or a graphic procedure. • Extrapolation - inferring values that go beyond the given series of data by use of a mathematical formula or a graphic procedure.

  32. Summary measures • Sex ratios • Dependency ratio • Child dependency ratio • Aged dependency ratio • Economic dependency ratio • Aging index • Caretaker ratio

  33. Central age – single year digits • Mean - sum of values number of values • Mode - most frequently occurring value or group • Median -middle value in a set of numbers arranged in ascending or descending order

  34. Median age • The median is preferred to the mean because of the marked skewness of the age distribution • The calculation of mean is often complicated by open- ended age groups (e.g. 80+)

  35. Age pyramids • Gives a detailed picture of the age-sex structure of a population • Consists of bars representing age groups in ascending order from lowest to highest pyramided on one another • Bars are generally by single or 5-year age groups • Number (or percentage) of persons in an age group is indicated by length of its bar from central axis • Males on left side; females on right side • Pyramids with absolute numbers show differences in overall sizes of total populations and in number at each age • Percent pyramids show relative differences in population size at each age-sex group

  36. Age structure of Finnish population in 1917 and 2006 http://www.stat.fi/tup/suomi90/joulukuu_en.html

  37. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male NH White Female Hispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

  38. Texas non-Hispanic White and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010 250000 200000 White (non-Hispanic) Population Hispanic 150000 100000 50000 0 100 to 104… 4 years 8 years 72 years 84 years 96 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 years 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 76 years 80 years 88 years 92 years Under 1 year Age Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

  39. Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D. Office: (210) 458-6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@utsa.edu Internet: demographics.texas.gov @TexasDemography

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