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Proliferation or Non-Proliferation: That is NOT the question for the Middle East

Proliferation or Non-Proliferation: That is NOT the question for the Middle East. Shirin Shafaie March 2012. Non -Proliferation Treaty (NPT) : What is it really about? Three Nuclear Models in the Middle East : Iran, Israel and UAE (Abu Dhabi)

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Proliferation or Non-Proliferation: That is NOT the question for the Middle East

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  1. Proliferation or Non-Proliferation: That is NOT the question for the Middle East ShirinShafaie March 2012

  2. Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): What is it really about? • Three Nuclear Models in the Middle East: Iran, Israel and UAE (Abu Dhabi) • Nuclear Energy: A Politicised Issue in the Middle East • Solution: Depoliticise In this presentation:

  3. Non-proliferation • Disarmament • Right to peaceful nuclear energy and technology Three Pillars of the NPT

  4. Article IV • Nothing in this Treaty shall be interpreted as affecting the inalienable rightof all the Parties to the Treaty to developresearch, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposeswithout discrimination … 2. All the Parties to the Treaty undertake to facilitate, and have the right to participate in, the fullest possible exchange of equipment, materials and scientific and technological information for the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Parties to the Treaty in a position to do so shall also co-operate in contributing alone or together with other States or international organizations to the further development of the applications of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, especially in the territories of non-nuclear-weapon States Party to the Treaty, …

  5. Three Nuclear Modelsin the Middle East • Non-proliferation, nationalised nuclear energy program • Non-proliferation, “semi-national” nuclear energy program (no enrichment) • Proliferation, no nuclear energy program (nuclear weapons program)

  6. Model One:IRAN

  7. When did the Iranian nuclear program start? 1950s (Atoms for Peace Program) Who were its main advocates? The United States, France and West Germany

  8. 1978-1979

  9. 2002Axis of Evil

  10. What is the problem with Iran? • The problem with Iran is its pursuit of its rights not just interests, national sovereignty not just security • The core of the problem is its uranium enrichment program (politically similar to its nationalised oil industry in the 1950s) • Asking Iran to give up its enrichment program means asking Iran to give up part of its national sovereignty

  11. Model Two: UAE (Abu Dhabi)

  12. Agreement with the United States (2008-2009) and with France (2008)

  13. Agreement with South Korea (2009)

  14. All Good, BUT

  15. Agreement between the United States of America and UAE states that:The UAE:shall not possesssensitive nuclear facilities within its territory or otherwise engage in activities within its territory for, or relating to, the enrichment or reprocessing of material...

  16. The April MOU states that ... the UAE will forgo “domestic enrichment and reprocessing capabilities in favor of long-term commitments of the secure external supply of nuclear fuel.” Moreover, the agreement’s text states that the United States can end nuclear cooperation with the UAE if it acquires enrichment or reprocessing facilities. Or if the United States “considers that exceptional circumstances of concern from a non-proliferation or security standpoint so require.” “[s]uch circumstances include, but are not limited to, a determination ... that the approval cannot be continued without a significant increase of the risk of proliferation or without jeopardizing its national security.”

  17. The State Department stated in April 2008 that the UAE’s choice to forgo enrichment and reprocessing “serves as a model for the economical and responsible pursuit of nuclear power.” Similarly, President Obama’s May 21 letter argued that the agreement “has the potential to serve as a model for other countries in the region that wish to pursue responsible nuclear energy development.” “U.S. cooperation with the UAE will also serve as a distinct counterpoint to those countries that have chosen a different path, in particular Iran”

  18. Model Three: ISRAEL

  19. UN Charter: “All nations are equal; some are more equal” e.g. ISRAEL

  20. Which Model?!? Source: FAS

  21. Problems and Solutions

  22. Conclusions • The link between nuclear energy and nuclear weapons is: A Politicised Link! • There will always be a threat of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East as long as the peaceful use of nuclear energy remains a politicised issue.

  23. Recommendations: • The West should fully recognise Iran’s inalienable right to peaceful nuclear technology (including its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes) • The West should refrain from bullying Iran (in the form of sanctions, assassinations, support for anti-Iranian terrorist groups, acts of sabotage, plans for regime change and threat of a military attack let alone threat of a nuclear attack) • The West should cooperate with Iran in the field of peaceful nuclear energy production as well as in other energy sectors

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