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PROMITHEAS - 4 Paving Green Pathways in 12 countries

This conference explores the challenges and solutions for paving green pathways in 12 countries, with a focus on understanding the impact of energy and climate change. Prof. Dimitrios Mavrakis from the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens shares key insights and policy recommendations.

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PROMITHEAS - 4 Paving Green Pathways in 12 countries

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  1. Energy and Climate Change 6th International Conference PROMITHEAS - 4Paving Green Pathwaysin 12 countries Prof. Dimitrios MAVRAKIS Director Energy Policy and Development Centre (KEPA)

  2. Contents • Understanding the challenge . . . • Tracing green pathways . . . • What in our region . . . • Conclusions National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  3. Understanding . . . • We the humans . . . • Needs and consequences National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  4. Rates of Growth

  5. Projected world population(1950 – 2100) http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  6. Projected growthin primary energy demand 2010-2035 Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China and India accounting for 50% of the growth Source: IEA statistics, 2010

  7. World primary energy consumption 1986-2011 Source: BP statistical review of world energy – June 2012

  8. Trends in CO2 emissions

  9. Beyond the 20 C level 2060* *World Economic Forum

  10. Tracing green pathways . . . • The ultimate challenge • The Kyoto protocol contribution • The UNFCCC framework for various approaches National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  11. The ultimate challenge A Green Sustainable and Equitable Economic Development Capable to: • Reduce GHG emissions – Mitigation • Reduce Vulnerability to Climate Change – Adaptation(Agriculture, Energy sector, Water resources, Infrastructure, Tourism, Health sector, Ecosystems) • Secure equitable economic development – Green economy

  12. The Kyoto protocol process • 1st commitment period 2005 – 2012 • Annex 1 and non Annex 1 countries • CDM, JI, ETS • Top to down procedure, limited success • 2nd commitment period 2013 – 2020 • Part of Annex 1(15% of global emissions) • CCS* under CDM (Durban) • Less parties with binding targets *CCS : Carbon Capture Storage

  13. Kyoto protocol(Present state of world actual commitment) Carbon Pricing Scenarios July 2013 PROMETHIUM

  14. Copenhagen Accord Assist developing countries in • Adaptation • Mitigation • Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) • $ 100 bl /year up to 2020 (2.34 bn € mobilized by EU in 2011 still pending)

  15. A promising perspective The Framework1 for various approaches under UNFCCC2 With the aim to promote cost effectiveness of mitigation actions: Parties may individually or jointly develop and implement such approaches in accordance with their national circumstances which may include the following: • Bilateral, domestic, voluntary offset programs • Sub-national, national and regional trading systems • Other market and non market approaches • 1/cp 17-Preamble of Section E • UNFCCC :United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

  16. Framework for various approaches NMMs in Charts IGES - JAPAN

  17. New Market Mechanisms (NMMs) Components

  18. Expected evolution of ETS Carbon Pricing Scenarios July 2013 PROMETHIUM

  19. What in our region . . . • PROMITHEAS – 4 • Developing policy mixtures • Mapping the region • Reviewing policies • Trends and consequences National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  20. PROMITHEAS – 4 (General information) • Title: “Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios” • Type: EU – FP7 (ENV – Cooperation, Contract No. 265182) • Duration: Three (3) years (2011-2013) • Budget: One (1) Mil. Euros (Approx.) • Partners: 16 Institutes - 14 countries • Beneficiaries: 12 emerging economies

  21. Developing M/A policy mixtures • Review the climate change policies of beneficiaries • Collect and develop databases and scenarios (BAU, PES, OPT) • Run LEAP model • Assess policy mixtures (AMS) • Comment policy mixtures in national conferences • Develop and implement intensive knowledge transfer procedures • Keep informed the governmental authorities National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  22. State of implementation of “Kyoto” in the region *Transposition of Directive 2007/60/EC on assessment and management of flood risks, ** Water management & fees (2003, 2011)

  23. CO2 emissions (Metric tons eq./capita) Source: PROMITHEAS – 4 results National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  24. CO2emission reduction targets until 2020 Note: Target of Bulgaria (8%) refers to 2012.

  25. Final energy consumption per capita Source: PROMITHEAS – 4 results

  26. Energy efficiency policies With policy instruments No policy instruments * Heat conservation, energy and insulation standards, energy management, etc. National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  27. Conclusions • There is a knowledge gap in developing, implementing and assessing M/A policy mixtures • The countries of the region do not participate (…so far) • In the formation of the Global ETS • In the development of regional NMMs • There is a considerable potential in reducing energy intensity (Nationally and Regionally) National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  28. Conclusions (Knowledge needs) • Reliable data bases (Development and maintenance in both national and regional level) • Expertise in • Scenarios development (Assumptions, modifications) • Models and assessment methods • M/A policy mixtures (Implementation, modification) • Social awareness among • Policy and decision makers • Market stakeholders • Simple people National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  29. Conclusions (Paving green pathways ) • National Emission Trade Schemes (ETS) can be developed and converge regionally and globally, until 2030 • Converging national NMMs, based on M/A policies, can provide economic benefits for the economies of the region • Countries with emerging economies can be benefited from the green fund of the Copenhagen accord National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  30. Conclusions (decreasing energy intensity) • Increase the energy efficiency standards • Encourage the use green technologies and smart networks • Establish tradable certificates for all avoided emissions • Enhance energy supply companies with energy saving services National and Kapodistrian University of Athens – Energy Policy and Development Centre

  31. Thank you for your attention KEPA in Athens - Greece E-mail: epgsec@kepa.uoa.gr. Tel. + 30 210 727 5732

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