Second IMO GHG Study 2009

1. Second IMO GHG Study 2009 Additional results and background Presented to MEPC 59, July 13 2009

2. Future Emission Scenario Background Dr. James Winebrake

3. Future emissions: Scenario Approach • Based on IPCC SRES storylines • Changes in economic, technology, and non-GHG regulatory mandates will affect emissions • Assume no explicit regulatory policies to mitigate CO2 • Open “Delphi” process including expert opinion and several “rounds” of input beginning in March 2008 • Applied values in inventory model for future years 2020 and 2050

4. Economic Growth Estimates Scenario Inputs Summarized as Annual Growth Rates

5. Efficiency Improvements Consideration of scale, speed, design, and operation 5

6. NOx Emissions Factors 6

7. SOx Emissions Factors 7

8. More on Climate Impacts from Shipping Professor Dr. Veronika Eyring

9. Shipping Emissions and Climate Change Combustion Products CO2+H2O+N2+O2+NOx+CO+HC+soot+SOx Engine fuel combustion Direct emissions CO2 NOx SOx Soot Organics Atmospheric processes Ocean uptake Chemical reactions Microphysical processes Increasing policy relevance & uncertainty Changes in radiative forcing components ΔCO2 ΔO3 ΔCH4 ΔAerosol Δclouds Ship tracks Changes in temperatures, sea level, ice/snow cover, precipitation etc. Climate change Agriculture and forestry, ecosystems, energy production and consumption, human health, social effects etc. Impacts Social welfare and costs Damages

10. Shipping CO2 radiative forcing 47 mW m-2 in 2005 2050 CO2 RF 99 – 122 mW m-2 for main scenarios (min 68 mW m-2, max 122 mW m-2) Buhaug et al., IMO GHG Study, 2009

11. Changes in zonal mean shortwave cloud forcing due to shipping at the top of the atmosphere (ToA) in W/m2 Radiative Forcing Mean % low cloud amount (1983 – 2004), ISCCP satellite data High impact in regions that are frequently covered with low clouds Lauer et al., ACP, 2007 - 190 mW/m2 Localized negative forcing from indirect effects, global positive forcing from CO2

12. Residual radiative forcings and global mean DT in 2007 and 2100 from shipping emissions up to 2007 ("ship-off scenario") Different lifetime: SOx and CO2 DT negative in 2007 Eyring V. and D. S. Lee, Climate Impact. Chapter 8 in Second IMO GHG study 2009, Buhaug et al. 2009 DT positive in 2100

13. Annual avoided premature mortality for three control 2012 scenarios: (a) Coastal 0.5, (b) Coastal 0.1, and (c) Global 0.5 for the ICOADS data set. Without control, the central estimate is approximately 87 000 premature deaths annually in 2012. Coastal area control scenarios reduce premature deaths by 33 500 for the 0.5% case by 43 500 for the 0.1% case. Where fuel sulfur content is reduced globally to 0.5% S, premature deaths are reduced by 41 200. (a) Coastal 0.5 Human Health: Annual avoided premature mortality in 2012 sulfur emissions control scenarios (b) Coastal 0.1 (c) Global 0.5 Winebrake et al., ES&T, 2009

14. EMISSIONS International shipping has been a fast growing sector and its share of total man-made emissions is significant. If unabated, ship emission will further increase => more stringent regulations! IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY AND HUMAN HEALTH Ozone and aerosol precursor emissions contribute to air quality problems and have negative impacts on human health. New results (Winebrake et al., ES&T, 2009) provide important support that global health benefits are associated with low-sulfur marine fuels, and allow for relative comparison of the benefits of alternative control strategies. RADIATIVE FORCING Even with a present-day negative effect, the CO2 accumulation means that at some point, the RF may switch from cooling to warming (difference in lifetime between CO2 and S). Reduction of CO2 is important to prevent further climate warming The radiative and climate effects of non-CO2 pollutants are complex but do not imply retaining S to ‘mitigate’ CO2 effects Conclusions

15. More on options for reduction of GHG emissions from shipsDr. Øyvind Buhaug

16. Improving energy efficiency - Design • Concept, speed & capability • Hull and superstructure • Power and propulsion systems

17. Improving energy efficiency - Operations • Fleet management, logistics & incentives • Voyage optimization • Energy management

18. Renewable energy • Electric power generated by solar cells • Propulsion force generated by wind • Interesting as partial source of replacement power Future ship vision by NYK Future ship vision by Viking Line

19. Reductions in Ozone Depleting Substanes • Reduce leaks in operation and maintenance • Reduce refridgerant volume • Recover refrigerant • Use less harmful refrigerants MEASURES Data: UNEP

20. Reduction options for crude oil VOC emissions • Optimised operations (including also increased automation) • VOC recovery (onboard, onshore) • Increased maximum tank pressures • Cargo volatility (TVP/RVP) requirements • Reductions achieved by Marpol Annex VI have not been quantified

21. Modal comparison of CO2 efficiency

22. Policy options for reduction of GHG emissions from shipsDr. Jasper Faber 22

23. Assessment of policies Environmental effectiveness The extent to which the policy is “effective in contributing to the reduction of total global greenhouse gas emissions Cost-effectiveness Costs per unit of effect Incentive to technical change Incentive for development and adoption of new technologies Accommodation of current technologies Practical feasibility of implementation Data availability 23

24. Environmental effectiveness Strength of the incentive Measures that can be used for compliance Impacts on emissions in non-shipping sectors 24

25. Measures that can be used for compliance

26. Marginal Abatement Cost Analysis 26

27. Cost-effectiveness MBIs have more measures MBIs have higher administrative costs Overall cost-effectiveness depends on level of ambition High ambition: admin costs are a small share of the total costs MBI’s most cost-effective Price volatility may limit cost-effectiveness But price volatility of emission allowances or fuel levy likely to be small compared to fuel price volatility Mandatory EEDI cost-effective but smaller effect

28. Incentives to technical change

29. Policy options to reduce GHG emissions Market-based instruments are cost-effective and highly environmentally effective capture the largest amount of emissions under their scope, allow both technical and operational measures in the shipping sector to be used can offset emissions in other sectors. A mandatory limit on the EEDI for new ships is a cost-effective solution that can provide an incentive to improve the design efficiency of new ships. Its environmental effect is limited it only applies to new ships it only incentivizes design improvements and not improvements in operations. 29

30. Summary 30

31. Summary (1/3) • Carbon dioxide is the most important GHG emitted by ships • Shipping amounts to 3.3% of the global anthropogenic CO2 • International shipping: 2.7% of the global anthropogenic CO2 . • Absent regulations, ship emissions may grow significantly as a result of growth in shipping

32. Summary (2/3) • Future CO2 emissions for the shipping sector does not harmonise with global need for reduction (policies are needed for the 2° target)

33. Summary (3/3) • A significant potential for reduction of GHG through technical and operational measures exits • The number of emission reduction options promoted varies between policy options • Market-based instruments are the most environmentally effective and cost-effective instruments • A mandatory EEDI is a cost-effective instrument to improve the efficiency of new ships

34. Thank you 34