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Ocean Conditions and Salmon Marine Survival Robert L Emmett and Bill Muir Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries 2725 Montlake Boulevard East, Seattle, WA 98112. Ocean Conditions. 70’s 80’s 99-02. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
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Ocean Conditions and Salmon Marine Survival Robert L Emmett and Bill MuirFish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries2725 Montlake Boulevard East, Seattle, WA 98112
Ocean Conditions 70’s 80’s 99-02 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation since 1940 Warm Period
PDO since January 2009 Jan Aug Jun
Working hypothesis: Biological Communities significantly different under cold and warm PDO’s Figures courtesy of Kirstin K. Holsman, NWFSC, Seattle, WA
Ocean Conditions 13 year time series of zooplankton sampling off Newport shows that monthly anomalies of copepod species richness are correlated with the PDO As with SST, there are time lags of a few months between the 4-year “cold periods” and “warm periods”. Cold periods are characterized by “cold water” copepods and warm periods by “warm water” copepods
Ocean Conditions 1999 2001 Sea surface temperature anomalies May 1998-2010 2007 2004 2002 2005 2006 2008 2003 2000 2009 2010
Ocean Conditions 2010 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Feb Jan Mar Apr Jun Aug May Jul Oct Sep
Predicting Salmon Runs – William Peterson, NWFSC http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/features/predicting_salmon_runs.cfm
Zooplankton Densities 2010 Shallow Station Mooring breaks loose Deep Station
Forage Fish Abundance 2010 Mooring breaks loose
2010 Summary • Early El Nino and positive PDO – but not very big
2010 Summary • Early El Nino and positive PDO – but not very big • Warm ocean in winter but turned around by late spring (maybe a little too late to help)
2010 Summary • Early El Nino and positive PDO – but not very big • Warm ocean in winter but turned around by late spring (maybe a little too late to help) • Not a good spring for spring Chinook, chum, sockeye, coho, and steelhead
2010 Summary • Early El Nino and positive PDO – but not very big • Warm ocean in winter but turned around by late spring (maybe a little too late to help) • Not a good spring for spring Chinook, chum, sockeye, coho, and steelhead • Summer was anomalously cool (negative PDO)– good for fall Chinook
What do we expect in 2011 Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival
What do we expect in 2011 Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival Relatively high spring flows – also good for marine survival (larger plume)
What do we expect in 2011 Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival Relatively high spring flows – also good for marine survival (larger plume) Fewer sardines – they like warm ocean
What do we expect in 2011 Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival Relatively high spring flows – also good for marine survival (larger plume) Fewer sardines – they like warm ocean More anchovy, smelt, and herring – cool species
What do we expect in 2011 Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival Relatively high spring flows – also good for marine survival (larger plume) Fewer sardines – they like warm ocean More anchovy, smelt, and herring – cool species More large copepods – food for things that Chinook and coho eat and food for sockeye and chum salmon