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Andrés Monzón, Elena López UPM-TRANSYT transyt.upm.es

Consortium meeting 16/02/2005. WP5: Assessment of Scenarios Kick-off Meeting. Andrés Monzón, Elena López UPM-TRANSYT www.transyt.upm.es. WP5 Overall Objective and Structure. WP5 overall objective:

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Andrés Monzón, Elena López UPM-TRANSYT transyt.upm.es

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  1. Consortium meeting 16/02/2005 WP5: Assessment of Scenarios Kick-off Meeting Andrés Monzón, Elena López UPM-TRANSYT www.transyt.upm.es

  2. WP5 Overall Objective and Structure WP5 overall objective: “ to assess and compare the impacts forecasted for the three scenarios with respect to criteria and indicators which reflect the overall goal of transport and energy sustainability” “Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs…” Definition of Sustainable development (Brudtland Report, UN-1987)

  3. WP6: CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY GUIDELINES EU POLICY SCENARIOS-POLICY STRATEGIES WP3: DEFINITION OF SCENARIOS WP5: EVALUATION AND ASSESSMENT OF SCENARIOS ACHIEVEMENT OF EU POLICY GOALS? WP4: SCENARIO IMPACTS MODEL OUTPUTS- PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

  4. POLICY STRATEGIES i ASSESMENT SCENARIO II-i REFERENCE SCENARIO II POLICY STRATEGIES j ASSESMENT SCENARIO II-j POLICY STRATEGIES n ASSESMENT SCENARIO II-n EXOGENOUS TRENDS I POLICY STRATEGIES i ASSESMENT SCENARIO I-i REFERENCE SCENARIO I POLICY STRATEGIES j ASSESMENT SCENARIO I-j POLICY STRATEGIES n ASSESMENT SCENARIO I-n EXOGENOUS TRENDS II

  5. Task 5.1.- Evaluation framework • MAIN SOURCES FOR CRITERIA/INDICATOR SELECTION: • World-level: • UN ( SD criteria) • OECD (EST- Environmentally Sustainable Transport) • IEA (SMP- Sustainable Mobility Project) • EU-level: • Policy documents (White Paper, Green Paper, Constitution, EU Treaty, Structural Indicators COM(2003) 585, etc.) • DGTREN documents (Energy and Transport Reports, EUROSTAT Statistics) • Research projects (EUNET/SASI, PROPOLIS, TREMOVE) • EEA (TERM indicators)

  6. Task 5.1.- Evaluation framework • EU POLICY GOALS: • Transport Policy: • Efficient, accessible and competitive transport system • High level of safety and environmental protection • Energy Policy: • Controlling the increase in demand • Managing dependence on supply • Improving the functioning of the internal market • Sectoral policies: • Economic Policy: Economic growth/ “Decoupling” • Regional Policy: improving cohesion • Environmental Policy: global warming, externalities… • Spatial Planning Policy • Innovation/Technology Policy

  7. Task 5.1.- Main features of the assessment methodology • Assessment: objective-led • Subject of the evaluation: • Scenarios: assumptions on a combination of exogenous trends and policy strategies • Comparison with a “reference” scenario (BAU) • Geographical scope: European & Regional TWO ASSESSMENT LEVELS: EUROPEAN AND REGIONAL?

  8. PROCESS INDICATORS- OVERALL TRANSPORT SYSTEM PERFORMANCE

  9. DRAFT SELECTION OF CRITERIA (EU LEVEL)

  10. DRAFT SELECTION OF CRITERIA (EU-Regional level)

  11. WP5 TIMETABLE AND RESPONSIBLES UPM BCI(*) WP4 Model Runs (*) WP6 Leader

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