1 / 22

High Potential Oil & Gas Exploration and Production in Poland

High Potential Oil & Gas Exploration and Production in Poland. IPAA Oil and Gas Investment Symposium London – July 7, 2005.

lobo
Download Presentation

High Potential Oil & Gas Exploration and Production in Poland

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. High Potential Oil & Gas Exploration and Production in Poland IPAA Oil and Gas Investment Symposium London – July 7, 2005 • This report contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future drilling or other exploration or development results, the actual presence or recoverability of estimated reserves, the ability to establish reserves equal to the potential of exploration targets, production amounts or revenues, the availability of required additional funding, construction costs or schedules or similar matters. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties outside FX Energy's control. Actual events or results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of additional contingencies and uncertainties to which information respecting future events is subject, see FX Energy's 2004 annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC reports. As used herein “bcf” means billion cubic feet and “tcf” means trillion cubic feet of gas standardized for calorific content and liquids. Prep: June 27, 2005; Print: September 27, 2014

  2. FX and POGC concessions - 2005 FX-Fences I FX-Fences II FX-Block255/Wilga FX-Fences III Two million acres in productive areas • FX Energy • 1980’s: U.S. Rocky Mountain producer/driller/explorer • business model: farmout to industry partners • 1994: FX’s geophysicist suggests Poland • FX business model fits Poland’s needs • Poland wanted western exploration, offered wildcat land and data to FX • FX brought more than $100 million to Poland, including farmouts with RWE-DEA, Apache, Homestake, CalEnergy • over time, FX built a relationship of trust with Poland • The prize for FX’s persistence: a big share in POGC’s Permian acreage – largely unexplored Rotliegend sands • by the mid-1980’s POGC had discovered 5 Tcf in Rotliegend sands without modern geophysics • POGC moved to other horizons with easier geophysics, leaving Rotliegend untouched for 20 years (while SNS grew to 40 Tcf) • FX has drawn on 20 years of technical progress in the Southern North Sea – geophysics that apply directly to Polish Rotliegend

  3. Sroda discovery (2005) Zaniemysl discovery (2004) Fences II Paproc 350++ bcf Ujazd 100 bcf Radlin 525 bcf Fences I Rusocin discovery (2005) Fences III 130 km FX Polish asset: Rotliegend acreage 20% of Poland’s Prime Permian Acreage: 2600 square miles FX Landholdings million acres km2 FX net gross net gross interest Fences I: 0.22 0.11 891 49% 0.05 0.01 183 24.5% Fences II: 0.67 0.33 2,715 49% Fences III: 0.77 0.77 3,122 100% Wilga/255: 0.220.19 912 82% 1.93 1.41 7,823

  4. FX Interests Groningen 100 Tcf SNS Basin 40 Tcf UK 5 Tcf Poland’s Rotliegend basin was underdeveloped for 40 years compared to Southern North Sea analog • A fairway of aeolian Rotliegend sandstone reservoirs, with structural and stratigraphic traps, and gas sourced by Carboniferous coals and sealed by Zechstein evaporites, extends across the North European Basin • Producing Rotliegend gas fields in Poland are direct analogs to those found in the UK Southern North Sea (“SNS”) and onshore in Holland • FX’s 1.7 million gross acres in Poland’s Permian basin are comparable to about 20% of the productive area in the 40 Tcf SNS, or about 8 Tcf potential • Comparable land in the US would be valued at more than $200/acre, or about $300 million for FX’s 1.4 million net acres in Poland

  5. Sroda Zaniemysl Radlin Field Rusocin Discoveries confirm expectations • FX’s last three wells all successful – all based on best geophysical methods • 2005: FX Sroda discovery has reserves and production potential comparable to POGC’s 525 Bcf Radlin gas field • 2005: FX Rusocin discovery confirms “pinch-out” stratigraphic trap model based on 350+ Bcf Paproc gas field • Production increases along with reserves • four commercial wells drilled and tested • significant production and revenue coming onstream • Sroda and Rusocin discoveries confirm areas of significant reserve potential • Sroda area should yield several Radlin sized fields – potential 1+ Tcf • Rusocin could lead to multiple fields along “pinch-out” trend – potential 1+ Tcf • Other prospects will emerge as geophysical work continues • east half of Fences I/II • Fences III and Wilga • other opportunities with POGC

  6. Attractive E&P conditions Access to existing pipelines • Established E&P infrastructure • World Bank loan upgraded rigs, seismic, etc. • standard oilfield services available • established pipeline infrastructure • Outstanding fiscal regime • no government back-in • 2% royalty • 19% net income tax • tax and royalty rates have been reduced over time • Poland energy facts • coal/lignite provide 97% of electricity • gas is 10% of energy mix vs. 21% European average • per capita energy use in Poland is 67% of western Europe • Poland imports 2/3 of gas needs from Russia: 650 mmcf/day • pent up industrial demand for gas unlinked to oil price

  7. Sroda discovery Sroda area Radlin Field Sroda area potential 1+ Tcf; FX holds 49% ? • Successful drilling with good geophysics • 2005: FX Sroda 4 discovery opens the door to near term reserve potential comparable to POGC’s Radlin field (525 bcf) • Sroda-5 well and possibly Sroda-6 or Winna Gora to drill in 2005; additional seismic also in 2005 • expect to firm up additional prospects to southeast, toward Radlin field

  8. Sroda discovery analog: Radlin gas field (POGC) • Radlin Field depth map • Top Rotliegendes 3078 meters • 525 bcf cumulative recoverable reserves • area=15km2; porosity=17-25%; perm=185mD; CH4=84.1%; N2=15.6%; He=0.14%; H2S=n/a; gas column=55 meters max; 32 meters avg. • 16 mmcf/day avg. well deliverability • 30-35 mmcf/day avg. daily field production from 33 wells (per POGC policy for security of supply)

  9. 40 to 400 bcf potential Sroda-4: a key discovery • Fences II: Sroda Field Discovery • Sroda-4: 33 meter gas column at 3600m depth • over 20% average porosity • Sroda field potential: up to 400 bcf • Discovery reduces risk in a series of similar structures on trend • play concept based on Radlin (525 bcf) • interests: FX 49%; POGC 51%

  10. Sroda N.E. Sroda Proposed 3-D Sroda area: initial objectives • Sroda/Sroda NE/Sroda SE/Winna Gora • drill Sroda-5 and possibly another in 2005 • acquire new seismic on Sroda, Sroda NE, Sroda SE and Winna Gora • drill Sroda NE; drill Sroda SE; drill Winna Gora; then appraisal wells on each; look for 1+ Tcf from the group • start producing in 2007, even if full development of the fields takes longer • expect to add structures similar to Sroda along trend to the southeast toward Radlin gas field SRODA-NE Sroda SE X Sroda well SRODA

  11. NE SW 1250m Sroda NE Sroda Sroda-4 discovery well location Line #T0440593 Pre Stack Depth Migration Sroda-4 Depth. m Rotliegend sandstone reservoir

  12. Mieczewo Polwica Sroda Sroda N.E. Stable Platform Sroda SE Grundy Winna Gora Deep Basin (source area) Srem Zaniemysl Komorze Dolsk Drzonek Radlin Rusocin Donatowo Lubinia Pinch-out area XLugi Kotlin Roszkow Wolsztyn High 248 Area 1 248 Area 3 248 Area 2 Significant potential – four different plays • Stable Platform – structural traps • Sroda cluster may continue along trend to southeast toward and beyond Radlin field • other leads and prospects already identified: Mieczewo, Srem, Roszkow • east half of Fences I/II are still early stage • Fences III, Wilga, other exploration opportunities • exploration can increase in tandem with production and cash flow • Pinch-out area – stratigraphic traps • Rusocin pins the pinch-out play on the downdip side – Lugi, Drzonek and Dolsk will test updip • Pinch-out play may reappear in the southeast of Fences I/II • Reef play • Zechstein has been a successful play for POGC northwest of Fences I/II (BMB, Lubiatow) - both oil and gas • Fences I/II show indications of reef play potential ? Reef area • Deep basin • gas has been discovered downdip from Grundy, but reservoir quality was poor

  13. Dolsk Drzonek Rusocin Possible gas/water contact Possible pinch-out XdrillsiteLugi Rusocin discovery confirms pinch-out play • Rusocin well data • Net pay: 8.5 meters • Gas saturation: 50% • Flow potential: 28 mmcfg/d • Porosity: 21.5% • Interests: FX 49%; POGC 51% • Lugi is 100 meters high to Rusocin • Rusocin to Lugi potential 1+ TCF • Lugi to drill in 2005; 9 km stepout

  14. RUSOCIN-1 LUGI-A Lugi Prospect Seismic Line T0021804 Lugi location is 100m high to Rusocin

  15. FENCES II FENCES I FENCES III POGC focus: Zechstein reefs(major successes at BMB and Lubiatow) BMB: est. 75 mmbo + 350 bcf (1993) Lubiatow complex: est. 150 mmbo + 700bcf (2003)

  16. Fences I and 248 Palaeohighs – Ca2 build ups Pseudo-palaeohigh map at base Zechstein – generated from Zsp-Tp2 TWT Deep Zechstein sea Shallow Zechstein barrier build-up NB Artefact generated by Triassic grabens Area of Ca2 >45m Edge of Ca2 build up Area 2 is located on a spur of increased Ca2 thickness into the deeper Zechstein sea

  17. Prospects and Leads Identified - to Date Fences I/II Gas Potential (Bcf) • 5.3 tcf represents estimatedunriskedmaximumpotential • covers only certain named leads and prospects identified to date • FX interest is 49% • Prospect/Lead Inventory is Building • Sroda and Rusocin increase success odds and begin to frame values on structural and stratigraphic plays • work continues to identify more prospects and leads for these two play-types • work on two other play types (deep basin and reef) now in early stages – prospects and leads to come • Fences III area: first pass seismic reprocessing just completed – prospects and leads to come

  18. Reserves and Revenues: beginning • Sroda-5, Sroda NE, other wells • Each Sroda area well (Sroda-5, Sroda NE, etc.) should add approx. $2 mm/yr for FX • $4 vs. $3 gas adds $0.7 mm/yr to FX cashflow for each Sroda area well • Cost to Realize Expected Values • drilling cost range: $4-5 mm • expected drilling success rate: 50%; (FX is 3 for 3 since using modern technology; SNS rate is 53.4%) • cost of discovery, therefore, is two wells, or $8 – $10mm • expected field size: 40 bcf to 600 bcf ($40 mm to $600 mm present value in the ground at $3/mmbtu wellhead) • ratio of discovery cost to discovery present value ranges from 1:4 up to 1:60 • Gas pricing • German border gas price (1Q05) $5.25 per mmbtu • Polish border gas price (Russian gas) $5.00 per mmbtu • Polish TPA Transmission Fee $0.69 per mmbtu • Polish Industrial Customers $6.80 per mmbtu • FX wellhead price (few wells/fields): $3.00 per mmbtu • FX wellhead price (strong supplier): $4.00 per mmbtu

  19. Company Profile Share and Balance Sheet Information Share Information 6/27/05 (Estimated) Balance Sheet Data ($mm) 12/31/0403/31/05 (Audited) (Unaudited) Current Assets $37.8 $34.4 Property, net 14.8 14.5 Other 0.40.4 Total Assets $53.0$49.3 Current liabilities $4.0 $1.3 Long term liabilities 0.4 0.4 Stockholders equity 48.647.6 Total $53.0 $49.3 Basic Shares Outstanding 34.6 million Options/Warrants Outstanding 7.2 million Fully Diluted shares 41.8 million cash from exercise + $33 million Market Capitalization $340 million Volume 270,000 shs/day Management Ownership 8.4% Institutional Ownership 31% NASDAQ National Market: “FXEN” Options traded on CBOE and AMEX under “FXEN” Member Russell 3000 Index

  20. Critical Elements Gathered – Gaining Momentum • Three discoveries; two exploration models confirmed; production starts in 2006 • Zaniemysl: scheduled to begin production mid-2006 • Wilga: plan to start production mid-2006 • Sroda: expect production in 2007 with several wells • cash flow should exceed G&A rate in about twelve months • Funds in hand to drive a substantial drilling and development program • over $30 million cash to focus on lowest risk areas (Sroda now, pinch-out after Lugi) • reserves and production will support project funding or other industry specific funding methods • Technical capability • Hardman and team bring successful experience and latest technology from Southern Gas Basin • Tatys and staff in FX’s Warsaw Production Office have the right credentials and experience to produce gas in partnership with POGC • Underlying everything, FX has critical land asset with large hydrocarbon potential • SNS analog argues for several Tcf of undiscovered gas in Fences I/II/III • Sroda discovery increases success outlook for Sroda and nearby structures with 1+ Tcf potential • Rusocin discovery confirms presence of pinch-out play type with 1+ Tcf potential • leads and prospects identified in other plays and areas • drilling cost, expected success rate, expected values yield excellent reserves growth

  21. Why consider an investment in FXEN now? • Sroda-4 discovery (May’05) sets up a cluster of nearby structural traps; gross potential 1+ Tcf of gas; Sroda-5 and possibly Sroda-6 to drill in 2005 • Lugi well could establish a major pinch-out stratigraphic play extending southeast from the recent Rusocin discovery (Jan’05); gross potential 1+ Tcf of gas • Warsaw production office opened June 2005 headed by Z. Tatys, former VP of POGC and Head of E&P • Strong technical team building an inventory of prospects and leads with estimated unrisked maximum gross potential over 5 Tcf of gas identified to date (net 2.6 Tcf; risked net 1.3 Tcf @ $1/mcf in the ground represents a present value several times the current market capitalization of $350 million • Excellent record of exploration success: three discoveries in a row! • Strong balance sheet: $34 million in cash; no debt • Production revenues to commence in 2006: first three wells expected to generate revenue of up to $8 million annually – more than G&A • FXEN common stock down substantially from a peak of $16.70 in Feb’05; two significant wells about to begin drilling; average daily trading volume 300,000 shares

  22. Stock Performance Announcement dates of Industry Agreements and Drilling Results Orneta 4/97 Closing Price Poniatowa Czernic 2/99 Siedliska Witkow 8/99 Rusocin 1/05 Gladysze 9/97 Wilga 3 6/00 Annopol 2/01 Kleka 6/00 Zaniemysl 3 1/04 Chojnice 5/01 Sroda-4 4/05 Apache 4/97 CalEnergy 8/02 Wilga 2 1/00 Wilga 4 10/00 Tuchola 1/01 RWE-DEA 5/96 DAILY VOLUME (000) At June 27, 2005, 90-day average daily volume was 270,000 shares per day

More Related