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Melbourne: Changing Distribution of Change

This surveying expo presentation by David Sykes, a senior demographic researcher, explores the changing distribution of change in Melbourne over the past 40 years and provides insights into future population trends. It covers topics such as dwelling approvals, population growth, urbanization, and age structure.

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Melbourne: Changing Distribution of Change

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  1. SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014David SykesSenior Demographic Researcher

  2. Looking back 40 years: Melbourne

  3. Changing distribution of change Melbourne – 80’s to early 90’s Melbourne – 2000s 3

  4. Total dwelling approvals 2001-2013 NORTHERN 19% EASTERN 15% WESTERN 18% 22% CENTRAL SOUTHERN 27% 3

  5. Annual dwelling approvals – change over a decade GREATER MELBOURNE NORTHERN +47% +17% EASTERN WESTERN +18% -4% +63% CENTRAL SOUTHERN -11% 3

  6. Changing dwelling types Source: ABS Building Approvals 3

  7. Victorian population facts as at 2013 Total Population: 5.79 million Annual growth: 107,900 (1.9% p.a.) 3

  8. Victorian population facts as at 2013 Total Population: 5.79 million Annual growth: 107,900 (1.9% p.a.) Net overseas migration: 62,300 Net interstate migration: 7,500 Natural increase: 38,100 3

  9. Some trends are unmistakeable • Strong growth • Urbanisation • Changing age structure 2

  10. Projections driven by strong natural increase and overseas migration

  11. Categories of net overseas migration Net Overseas Migration, by major groupings and visa, Victoria 2010-11 Permanent Other Temporary

  12. 80%+ of Victoria’s growth in Melbourne +4.5m +1.9m +3.6m (82%) +1.6m (80%) Historic Projected Source: ABS 2013; DTPLI 2014 5

  13. Total population change by LGA, 2011-31

  14. Average annual growth rate by LGA, 2011-31

  15. Proportion of population aged 0-19 years, 2031

  16. Proportion of population aged 65+ years, 2031

  17. Households by Type, 2011-51 May not sum to 100% due to rounding

  18. Household Types, 2011 – 2031 Female lone person Male lone person One parent family Group households and other families Couple family with children Couple family without children

  19. Household Types, 2011 – 2031 One parent family Male lone person Female lone person Couple family with children Group households and other families Couple family without children

  20. Household Types, 2011 – 2031 One parent family Male lone person Couple family with children Female lone person Group households and other families Couple family without children

  21. Certainty and uncertainty Will a 60 year old behave in 2034 as a 60 year old behaves in 2014? Uncertain Long term change Future levels of overseas migration When Melb’s pop reaches 5m / 6m How population will change in Individual LGAs Most pop growth will be in cities – Melb’s pop will reach 5 m / 6m The number of 60 year olds in 2034 Short term change Population will grow Population will age Certain

  22. Certainty and uncertainty 3

  23. Certainty and uncertainty Projection horizon 3

  24. Certainty and uncertainty 1971 www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/ 3

  25. Certainty and uncertainty 1971 www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/ 2011 www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review 3

  26. Certainty and uncertainty 1971 www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/ 2051? 2011 www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review www.digitaltrends.com/features/faster-forward-imagining-the-future-car-of-2050/#!9RImc 3

  27. Certainty and uncertainty 1971 www.flickr.com/photos/aussiefordadverts/5282282100/ 2051? 2011 www.themotorreport.com.au/51241/holden-commodore-ve-ii-ss-v-redline-edition-sedan-road-test-review www.digitaltrends.com/features/faster-forward-imagining-the-future-car-of-2050/#!9RImc 3

  28. Looking back 40 years, looking forward 40 years: Melbourne

  29. SURVEYING EXPO | 25 July 2014David SykesSenior Demographic Researcher

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