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Inclusive Growth and Indices of Social Development:

Inclusive Growth and Indices of Social Development: conceptual explorations with country narratives Arjan de Haan IDRC, formerly ISS . contents. Background to this paper Concept inclusive growth – some genealogy GDP, inequality, HDI Inclusive growth as process Production

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Inclusive Growth and Indices of Social Development:

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  1. Inclusive Growth and Indices of Social Development: conceptual explorations with country narratives Arjan de Haan IDRC, formerly ISS

  2. contents • Background to this paper • Concept inclusive growth – some genealogy • GDP, inequality, HDI • Inclusive growth as process • Production • Accountability, participation, governance

  3. background • IDRC program ‘supporting inclusive growth’ • A fairly broad working definition “growth that improves the access of the poor to expanding economic opportunities and reduces inequality” • While it’s right to have broad working definition, we decided to review different country narratives • And: how is the concept different from earlier ones? • process and outcomes • governance and beyond

  4. Country narratives:10 emerging (more or less) economies

  5. a little of genealogy • concept inclusive growth led by emerging economies, notably India 2004 • similar but in different language China, Brazil, South Africa • international agencies: AsDB, UNDP, now AfDB • After: • 1997 crisis turnaround pro-growth emphasis • period ‘inclusive neo-liberalism’

  6. growth-is-not-enough concepts • growth with redistribution (1980s Washington Consensus style) • growth and poverty reduction • poverty elasticities • inequality ‘back on the agenda’ • pro-poor growth (growth rate bottom 10%) • growth incidence curves

  7. Growth and … • Inequality • while diverse now well explored , WDR 2006 • Growth Commission ‘toxic inequalities’ • HDI: remains contested but also well-known debate • Gender – instrumental case (no link with growth in dozen countries – see below) • Governance, institutions and growth (below) Now: growth as process ……………

  8. Inclusive growth (see ADB paper Klasen) Inclusive growth as outcome • Growth with declining income inequality • Growth with growing social opportunities IA-HDI? -> HD and social protection policies

  9. Inclusive growth as process • Expanding equal opportunities and access • Social (as above) • Infrastructure • Etc Measurement not clear, possibly at project level -> can / should we include governance and social development indicators ?

  10. Inclusive growth as improving governance-> no story / not-so-good-story GDP and rule of law (WGI) GDP and voice and accountability (WGI)

  11. Intermezzo: Governance and ISD comparison Voice & accountability – civic activism Voice & accountability – clubs & associations

  12. Growth &ISD – with governance

  13. Conclusions • Growth paradigm is shifting, increasingly broad understanding well-being • All good things do not go together • ISD (some) show links with other development outcomes (Robert, Yi Lerh and John) • Can we link this to and ‘inclusive growth’ indicator ? • Will strength of explanation increase if we include governance ?

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