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Will recent scientific findings redirect policy?

Will recent scientific findings redirect policy?. Øystein Hov 1 and Peringe Grennfelt 2 1) Norwegian Meteorological Institute and EMEP MSCW 2) IVL. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction.

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Will recent scientific findings redirect policy?

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  1. Will recent scientific findings redirect policy? Øystein Hov1 and Peringe Grennfelt2 1)Norwegian Meteorological Institute and EMEP MSCW 2)IVL

  2. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction • the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) • the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes • air quality and health • Globalisation of the economy – transportation and energy use, “greying of Europe” • Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

  3. Schär et al., 2004, Nature 427, 332-336

  4. Schär et al., 2004, Nature 427, 332-336

  5. RCM climate change scenario of current (CTRL 1961–90) and future (SCEN 2071–2100) conditions. a, b, distribution of summer T northern Switzerland for CTRL and SCEN, c, T for SCEN–CTR, d, Change in variability expressed as relative change in standard deviation of JJA means ((SCEN–CTRL)/CTRL, %). Copied from Schär et al., 2004.

  6. Climate change feedbacks on atmospheric composition can be sorted according to • emission regulators (both anthropogenic and biogenic, including demography, shift in seasonal temperatures and the effect on energy consumption, plant and forest species, atmosphere-ocean interaction) • transport regulators (wind, convection, mixing properties in the ABL) • transformation regulators (rh, q, cloud cover and type, T, albedo and its effect on photolysis rates) • removal regulators (precipitation frequency and amount, surface properties, bidirectional effects)

  7. First order feedbacks from climate change on atmospheric composition? A first order feedback from climate change on atmospheric composition exists if: The parameter changes linked to climate change affect exposure or deposition by an amount which is comparable to the changes in exposure or deposition that follow technologically or economically feasible emission changes

  8. Enhanced boundary layer ozone over central Europe summer 2003 • Dry deposition - the most important ABL removal mechanism of ozone - is strongly reduced in drought conditions • Enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds • ABL breakup slower in high pressure cell and drought conditions Probably a ”sudden change” in ozone loss while ozone production is likely to increase in drought (biogenic VOC emissions up; NOx from combustion up; but OH perhaps down). Health implications

  9. c air concentration a atmospheric resistance ATMOSPHERE boundary canopy layer c compensation resistance CANOPY c point stomatal In-canopy c resistance resistance cuticular resistance G = [NH ]/[H ] + + c 4 stomatal s compensation point c soil l compensation point Deposition and emission • Bi-directional nature of ammonia exchange • Co-deposition of SO2 and NH3 • In-canopy NOx processes • Ozone fluxes: stomatal and external leaf uptake, closed at night and in drought • Modelling surface – atmosphere exchange From Biatex2, Eurotrac2 (Erisman et al 2003)

  10. Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds: Annual Global Total Emission > 1.5 Gt Formic acid, acetic acid, ethane, toluene, camphene, terpinolene, a-terpinolene, a-thujene, cineole, ocimene, g-terpinene, bornyl acetate, camphor, piperitone, linalool, tricyclene: 0.04 to 0.2% each Isoprene (C5H8) 40% Various compounds may dominate annual emissions at specific locations b-pinene, d-carene, hexenal, hexenol, hexenyl-acetate, propene, formaldehyde, hexanal, butanone, sabinene, limonene, methyl butenol, butene, b-carophylene, b-phellandrene, p-cymene, myrcene: 0.2 to 1% each Methanol (CH3OH) 15% Acetaldehyde, acetone, ethene, ethanol, a-pinene: 1 to 7% each From Alex Guenther, NCAR, at ILEAPS workshop Helsinki 2003 (from www)

  11. Estimates of climate change feedback on atmospheric composition • Summer ABL ozone a factor of 2 over Continental Europe? • Biogenic emissions feedback 10%? • Acid dep and eutrophication 10%? • Summer PM a factor of 2?

  12. Another climate – chemical change feedback: Fire-convection frequency (”Add fire-convection to volcanoes”) • August 2003: Hundreds of boreal forest fires in Russia and Canada and in the temperate forests of the USA (210.000km2 in Russia burnt) • Northern summer 1998 boreal zone fires in Russia and Canada with plume smoke entering the lower stratosphere residing till October • Significant increase in frequency and severity of boreal fires predicted under climate change (longer fire seasons and drier conditions) Fromm and Bevilacqua, Atm.Env. 2004, 38, 163-165.

  13. Biscuit and Tiller Fires in California and Oregon (08/14/02) – Courtesy of J. Descloitres

  14. More lightning under climate change? • The global surface source of NOx is about 40 MtN/a (50-50 anthropogenic and biogenic) • Lightning source about 5 MtN/a (1-20 MtN/a range) • Aircraft source 0.5-1 MtN/a

  15. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction • the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) • the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes • air quality and health • Globalisation of the economy – transportation and energy use, “greying of Europe” • Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

  16. Globalisation, transportation needs • Shipping has gone up by 70% between 1984 and 2001 • Air transport has increased yearly by between 5 and 10% since 1970. • Air pollution emissions from these transport systems have only been controlled to a limited extent. Shipping hardly any control except some in limited areas, e.g. the North Sea and the Baltic. • Ship emissions are today responsible for more than 10 percent of the global NOx emissions (perhaps as much as 20%). • For Europe, shipping emissions now contribute significantly to the deposition of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in coastal areas and the downward trend in atmospheric deposition is slowing or has stopped

  17. The Greying of Europe Q: Fraction of N, S emitted over Europe removed there

  18. The trend in the global seaborne trade movement of dry cargo and oil since 1984 in million tonnes per year (20).

  19. Red: Visible reflectance Green: 3.7 mm reflectance Blue: 11 mm temperature Ship tracks over the North Pacific

  20. Ship Track Formation N ~ 40 cm-3 W ~ 0.30 g m-3 re ~ 11.2 µm N ~ 100 cm-3 W ~ 0.75 g m-3 re ~ 10.5 µm

  21. The Greying of Europe. Tropospheric Trace Gases Observable by Satellite Nitrogen Dioxide: (requires separation from stratosphere) Formaldehyde Carbon Monoxide Jack Fishman, NASA, ESA-ESTEC presentation from www

  22. Ratio of electricity consumption in January-March to July-September for each year 1990-2000 for the United Kingdom and Italy (36). Eurostat Energy Database (August 2004).

  23. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction • the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) • the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes • air quality and health • Globalisation of the economy – transportation and energy use, “greying of Europe” • Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

  24. Megacity growth trends(ES&T Feature).

  25. Urban air quality assessmentMulti-scale characterRegional-to-urban coupling Example: O3 calculated with EURAD for BERLIOZ (July 20, 1998, 14 UTC). Source: Memmesheimer Moussiopoulos, Eurotrac2 final event 2003

  26. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction • the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) • the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes • air quality and health • Globalisation of the economy – transportation and energy use, “greying of Europe” • Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

  27. Environment and health Source: CERC Moussiopoulos, Eurotrac2 final event 2003

  28. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction • the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) • the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes • air quality and health • Globalisation of the economy – transportation and energy use, “greying of Europe” • Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

  29. Atmosphere Stratospheric Effects PM & Visibility Effects Ozone Effects NOx GH Effects Energy Production N2O Terrestrial Ecosystems NOx NH3 Food Production NHx Agroecosystem Effects Forests & Grassland Crop Animal People (Food; Fiber) Soil Soil Norg NO3 N2O Groundwater Effects Human Activities The Nitrogen Cascade Surface water Effects Ocean Effects Coastal Effects Aquatic Ecosystems --Indicates denitrification potential

  30. Issues which are likely to change environmental policy direction • the coupling between atmospheric composition change air and climate change (both directions) • the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen incl land use changes • air quality and health • Globalisation of the economy – transportation and energy use, “greying of Europe” • Population growth, urbanisation – exposure and deposition on different scales in space and time

  31. THE END

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