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Brazil at 2040 – Customer and Competitor

Explore the future landscape of Brazil in 2040 as a major player in agricultural trade. Understand the dynamics of Brazil as a competitor and customer, its market characteristics, and implications for the U.S. agribusiness sector.

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Brazil at 2040 – Customer and Competitor

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  1. Brazil at 2040 – Customer and Competitor Luis A. Ribera Professor and Director Center for North American Studies Texas A&M University Southern Outlook Conference, September 24, 2018

  2. Outline • Importance of Ag. Trade • Brazil • Overview • Competitor • Customer

  3. World Population

  4. World GDP

  5. Importance of Ag Trade • U.S. is the largest ag. exporter, $138 billion in 2017 • Exports about 35% of ag income • U.S. imports totaled $121 billion in 2017 • Both exports and imports generate positive economic impacts

  6. U.S. Ag Exports as Share of Production 2016 Source: USDA-FAS

  7. Selected Brazilian Market Characteristics Source: USDA/FAS GATS, World Bank and Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística

  8. Consumer Expenditures Spent on Food, 2016 Source: USDA-ERS

  9. Brazil & U.S. Food Price Comparison Fuente: CNAS

  10. Competitor

  11. Brazilian Planted Area Evolution (1000 ha) Source: Conab, IBGE

  12. Brazilian Crop Yield Performance (metric tons/acre) Source: Conab, IBGE

  13. Brazilian Crop Yield Performance (1000 ton) Source: Conab, IBGE

  14. Brazilian Crop Yield Performance (1000 ton) 340% Source: Conab, IBGE

  15. Infrastructure Extension and Density Fuente: CIA

  16. Soybean Transportation in Brazil & US Fuente: CNT

  17. Brazilian Soybean Simulated Transportation Costs Fuente: CNT

  18. BrazilInlandWaterways

  19. Accepted Truths • Once upon a time the U.S. had the most efficient transportation systems in the world • Is this still true?

  20. U.S. World Ranking 25th in Overall Infrastructure 20th in Quality of Roads 19th in Quality of Port Infrastructure 30th in Air Transport Infrastructure

  21. Sampling of Countries Ahead of the United States

  22. Customer

  23. U.S. Exports of Selected Commodities to Brazil Source: USDA-FAS

  24. Probability of U.S. Wheat Exports to Brazil, being < $190.2 Million and > $1.2 Billion Source: CNAS 2018

  25. Probability of U.S. Rice Exports to Brazil, being < $6.5 Million and > $81.1 Million Source: CNAS 2018

  26. Probability of U.S. Cotton Exports to Brazil, being < $51.3 Million and > $321.5 Million Source: CNAS 2018

  27. Probability of U.S. PF Exports to Brazil, being < $41.4 Million and > $66.6 Million Source: CNAS 2018

  28. Probability of U.S. OIP Exports to Brazil, being < $124 Million and > $212.9 Million Source: CNAS 2018

  29. Implications to the U.S. • U.S. Ag Remains Export Dependent • Brazil Keeps Growing • Brazilian Market for Prepared Food is Growing • U.S. Trade Policy? • Brazil Political Issues?

  30. Brazil 2040 Project

  31. Brazil 2040 Project Cooperators

  32. Brazil 2040 Project Cooperators

  33. Questions Luis A. Ribera Professor and Extension Economist Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service lribera@tamu.edu Phone: 979-845-3070 @cnastamu1

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