1 / 31

Let’s ENGINEER a MODERATE accident to the proposed HINKLEY POINT EPR

Let’s ENGINEER a MODERATE accident to the proposed HINKLEY POINT EPR. First, we DEFINE the incident in terms of. Its PHASES. The RELEASE FRACTION of each PHASE. AIRBORNE DISPERSION. DEPOSITION & UPTAKE. SHORT, INTERIM & LONG TERM HEALTH DETRIMENT.

lolita
Download Presentation

Let’s ENGINEER a MODERATE accident to the proposed HINKLEY POINT EPR

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Let’s ENGINEER a MODERATE accident to the proposed HINKLEY POINT EPR First, we DEFINE the incident in terms of Its PHASES The RELEASE FRACTION of each PHASE AIRBORNE DISPERSION DEPOSITION & UPTAKE SHORT, INTERIM & LONG TERM HEALTH DETRIMENT

  2. This PHASE scatters some radioactive shrapnel in and nearby the site and generates a puff that travels high on the prevailing wind 1ST PHASE 1) EXPLOSIVE PUFF

  3. The reactor core is still very hot, nuclear criticality may have resumed, low energy dispersion continues – this PHASE may last several days The LAST phase 3) THERMAL DRIFT

  4. Here’s an example BUNCEFIELD OIL STORAGE DEPOT 2006 HEMEL HEMPSTEAD

  5. The PUFF is rising from the EXPLOSION fireball 1) EXPLOSIVE PUFF

  6. 2) FIRE & DISPERSION See how the heat of the fire DRIVES & DISPERSES the contaminants

  7. 3) THERMAL DRIFT Here’s the lazy THERMAL DRIFT that went on for about a WEEK after the initial explosion Doesn’t all of this look a little FAMILIAR ?

  8. THIS IS HOW IT HAPPENED HERE AT CHERNOBYL

  9. IMMEDIATE EVACUATION AND SHELTERING COUNTERMEASURES WERE IMPLEMENTED OVER THESE AREAS THIS INVOLVED MORE THAN 5 MILLION PEOPLE – TODAY ABOUT 3 MILLION CONTINUE TO LIVE IN THE CONTAMINATED OR SANITARY ZONES

  10. CENTRED AROUND HINKLEY THE CHERNOBYL COUNTERMEASURE ZONES WOULD BE DISPERSED LIKE THIS We can ZOOM in on HINKLEY and BRIDWATER

  11. Hinkley Point

  12. 30 km CHERNOBYL (Present Exclusion Zone) 10 km Extendable REPPIR Hinkley Point 2.4 km REPPIR Bridgwater (12.75km)

  13. 1st EXPLOSION Now, let’s go back to our hypothetical incident for the EPR at HINKLEY 2nd DISPERSION/DEPOSITION But in really fast time! 3rd THERMAL DRIFT

  14. 1 October 2008 Hinkley Point

  15. 29 August 2008 BURN DRIFT PUFF Hinkley Point

  16. START: 0600hrs 8 October Hinkley Point So wot about us lot in BRIDGWATER? +18 hrs How much warning do we get ? Last WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY +42 hrs

  17. Depends on if a ‘CONTAINED’ situation is maintained prior to the RELEASE Airborne Plume Warning could be HOURS or MINUTES or NO warning at all for certain terrorist triggered events PUFF + 6 hour BURN RELEASE CEASES 8 October 2008

  18. AND even though the plume has passed over BRIDGWATER it doesn’t mean that the RADIOACTIVITY has gone away

  19. COMMENCES 0600 hours Bridgwater about 30 minutes Isle of Wight Bournemouth + 5 hrs + 3.5 hrs

  20. The heavier FISSION fragments fall out and deposition on the ground and other surfaces This is because of RADIOACTIVE FALL-OUT from the overhead plume Ground Deposition Evacuation/Sheltering Zones

  21. Now we need to assess the RADIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES of the atmospheric PLUME and ground CONTAMINATION possible EVACUATION LONG TERM AGRICULTURAL MEASURES EVACUATION SHELTERING

  22. RADIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES are all about the RELEASE FRACTION I’m going to adopt the latest US Sequoyah RELEASE FRACTIONS for my analysis except for the EdF case 2 Sequoyah cases: 1) Terrorist Bomb 2) Aircraft Crash/Fire

  23. PROBABILITY EXPECTED VALUE 41 early deaths FLAMANVILLE 4,796 late deaths Sizewell B Equivalent LEU Fuel evacuated 125,800 This is the French equivalent to Sizewell B It’s similar to the EPR but SMALLER and fuel is LESS irradiated

  24. PROBABILITY EXPECTED VALUE 81 early deaths late deaths evacuated 41 early deaths FLAMANVILLE 4,796 late deaths Sizewell B Equivalent LEU Fuel evacuated 125,800 As expected, the very low release fractions assumed by EdF result in no early deaths FLAMANVILLE early deaths 6,212 late deaths EPR 313,000 evacuated LEU Fuel Here, the same incident at an EPR results in x2 the early deaths 0 EdF Worst Case 4 LEU Fuel 2,458

  25. In BRIDGWATER the Individual MEAN risk of SHORT TERM mortality is about 1 in 1,700 If I plot this data on a linear distance scale this is what it looks like – the preferred scientific scale here is Log –v- Log MORTALITY RISK EARLY DEATHS EARLY ILLNESS and about 1 in 100 of related illness Bridgwater

  26. Projected over 50 years remaining lifetime, the Individual MEAN risk of LONG TERM mortality is about 1 in 240 LONG TERM MORTALITY RISK Bridgwater

  27. Range of RISK This is the range of risk for SHORT TERM mortality – from the ‘MEAN’ to ‘99th Fractile’ projections MORTALITY RISK Worse is 1 in 16 compared to MEAN of 1 in 1000 Bridgwater

  28. Sheltering would be required out to 6 to 30km and evacuation possibly out to 10km during the 1st day following the incident For BRIDGWATER the EXPECTED 1 DAY radiation dose would be 16mSv or about 400mSv worse case. INDIVIDUAL DOSE These and the other projections are for a 1 DAY dose, if people remain in the area then evacuation may be required by later days Evacuation Sheltering BRIDGWATERevacuation necessary in worse case Bridgwater

  29. THYROID DOSE For both cases, BRIDGWATER would require Iodine Tablet issue during the 1st day Prophylaxis required out from 15 to 40km from HINKLEY POINT Saxmundham

  30. £6 B £26 B 600 MWe EXISTING NPP 1600MWe EPR LATEST US RELEASE LATE HEALTH EVACUATION FOOD BANS RELOCATION DECONTAMINATION £0.025 B 1600MWe EPR EdF

More Related