Masayoshi

1. Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Observations Bernard V. Jackson, P. Paul Hick, Andrew Buffington, Hsiu-Shan Yu, Julio Cesar Mejia-Ambriz, Nolan Luckett Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, USA Mario M. Bisi Institute of Mathematics and Physics, Aberystwyth University, Penglais Campus, Aberystwyth, Wales, UK http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Masayoshi

2. Introduction: The data: Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) STELab, Ooty, MEXART, KSWC 3D density and velocity reconstructions from IPS Recent programming enhancements, Magnetic field extrapolations, and their use in forecasting The Future – Possible IPS density and velocity from LOFAR, MWA

3. IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab) DATA IPS line-of-sight response STELab IPS array near Mt. Fuji STELab IPS array systems

4. Current STELab Toyokawa IPS System New STELab IPS array in Toyokawa (3,432 m2 array now operates well – year-round operation began in 2011)

5. Other Current Operating IPS Radio Systems The Ootacamund (Ooty), India off-axis parabolic cylinder 530 m long and 30 m wide (15,900 m2) operating at a nominal frequency of 326.5 MHz. The Pushchino Radio Observatory 70,000 m2 110 MHz array, Russia (summer 2006) Now named the “Big Scanning Array of the Lebedev Physical Institute” (BSA LPI).

6. Other and Potential Future IPS systems MEXART (Mexico) KSWC (South Korea) Dedicated IPS 700 m2 327 MHz IPS radio 32 tile array, Jeju Island Dedicated IPS IPS 9,600 m2 140 MHz IPS radio array near Michoacan, Mexico MWA (Western Australia) LOFAR (Western Europe) (32 tiles are now operating. The full array 128 tiles can obtain some IPS data.) (Some parts of the system are now operating - Richard Fallows, Mario Bisi are involved. IPS/FR tests are ongoing.)

7. IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360. Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. STELab IPS Sample outward motion over time

8. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339 Relative Weighting Outward Radial Motion

9. IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360. Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. STELab IPS 14 July 2000 13 July 2000

10. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000

11. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000

12. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000

13. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31 Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000 IPS Density Meridional Cut IPS Density LOS X-ing Meridional Cut

14. Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Magnetic Field Extrapolation • Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field usingphotospheric measurements and a horizontal current model. 2. Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region. 3. Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines. Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

15. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Dunn, T.J., et al., 2005, Solar Phys., 227, 339 Potential field modeling added IPS Density Remote View

16. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012,Solar Phys., 285, 151-165. Heliospheric C.A.T. Analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. Innovation STELab IPS * 13 July 2000 Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions

17. Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Innovation Innovation Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions

18. Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Forecast Jackson, B.V., et al., 2013,Solar Phys., 285, 151-165. Density Forecast Forecast Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions Forecasts work better if the values match up to the present. Velocity Forecast

19. Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. Forecast Jackson, B.V., et al., 2013,Solar Phys., 285, 151-165. Density Density Forecast Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions Forecasts work better if the values match up to the present. Velocity Velocity Forecast

20. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ UCSD Web pages UCSD IPS forecasts Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

21. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Skysweep view UCSD IPS forecast Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.

22. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Skymap view UCSD IPS forecast Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.

23. http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Skymap view UCSD IPS forecast Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.

24. Recent Forecast http://ips.ucsd.edu/ One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

25. Recent Forecast http://ips.ucsd.edu/ One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

26. Time-Dependent Analysis Using Other IPS Systems Fisheye velocity skymaps with additional radio sources Analysis including MEXART source Analysis without MEXART source

27. To Make a 3D-MHD Boundary Time-Dependent Velocity at 0.25 AU IHG Coordinates

28. To Make a 3D-MHD Boundary Time-Dependent Density at 0.25 AU IHG Coordinates

29. To Make a 3D-MHD Boundary Time-Dependent Radial Field at 0.25 AU, IHG Coordinates

30. IPS Boundary 3D-MHD MS-FLUKSS 3D-MHD modeling from a 0.25AU 3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary. (Kim, T. K., 2012, AIP Conference Proc. 1500, pp. 140-146.)

31. IPS Boundary 3D-MHD Ooty IPS velocities and g-level densities.C.C. Wu 3D-MHD modeling from an 18 Rs 3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary. (Wu, S.T., et al., 2001, J. Geophys. Res. 106, 25089-25102.) 3D-MHD 3D-MHD

32. Future Potential LOFAR (Western Europe) (Some parts of the LOFAR system are now operating - Richard Fallows, Mario Bisi are involved. IPS tests are ongoing.) LOFAR IPS 3C48 Signal

33. Summary: IPS Forecasting: • Forecasts with the IPS data (this has worked with STELab data for about 13 years). • Forecasts in real-time work better now with the inclusion of in-situ data (available since spring, 2011). These new innovations and the inclusion of other world IPS data sets make the technique a good way to forecast velocities and densities, and provide updates of modeling analyses on the way from Sun to Earth. • We are now beginning to combine these analyses with 3D-MHD results. One of the ideas is to update MHD results more directly by providing interim solutions iterated like the IPS time-dependent tomography.