Marine Environmental Awareness Course: Emissions to Air and Greenhouse Gases

1. Marine environmentalawarenesscourse Emissions to air • Greenhouse gases Name • Date and Place

2. Emissions to air • Greenhouse gases Contents Intro climate change The Earth’s climate system Is the climate changing? What’s causing this? Man or nature? What are the consequences? The role of shipping - contribution to the problem and to the solution 2 Illustration and photocredits: UNEP - GRID Arendal/ Green Award Foundation

3. 1. Climate change definition ‘Any change in global temperatures and precipitation over time due to natural variability or to human activity’ IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) • Global warming can be part of climate change • ‘Weather’ is not the same as ‘climate’

4. 2. The Earth’s climate system: gases in our atmosphere Greenhouse gases Illustrationcredits: ProSea

5. Greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere (greenhouse effect) • 40% of solar radiation reaches Earth • solar radiation reflected by clouds and aerosols (natural and human sources) • Earth radiates heat back into space • greenhouse gases (natural and human sources) trap part of this heat Illustrationcredits: ProSea

6. Not every green house gas is equal.Climate effects of a greenhouse gas depend on: 1. Ability to absorb heat 2. how long gas remains in the atmosphere Source: IPCC/TEAP 2005

7. Focus is on CO2because humans emit a lot of it (high quantities) CO2 represents 77% of total human-based green house gas emissions • while accounting for differences in Global Warming Potential, life time, and absolute quantities Illustrationcredits: IPCC Climate change 2007 Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers, Figure SPM1 Note: this is inset of original larger Figure

8. 3. Change: temperatures are rising, snow and ice are melting, and sea levels are rising Illustration credits: IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Climate change 2007 Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers, Figure SPM1

9. Ten changes in a warming world: all happening NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Illustrationcredits: NOAA (National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration)

10. 4. Cause? Three ways how air temperatures can change: Changes in power of sun Changes in amount of GHG Changes in clouds / aerosols Illustrationcredits: ProSea

11. IPCC 2007: “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in human-based greenhouse gas concentrations.” Changes in power of sun Changes in amount of GHG Changes in clouds / aerosols Illustrationcredits: ProSea

12. More greenhouse gases enhance the greenhouse effect: average temperature rises Illustrationcredits: ProSea

13. Since 1950, human-based green house gases have had the biggest influence on climate change Accounting for the fact that: • there are also natural sources of green house gases • Solar radiation has changed as well • Aerosols / cloud formation also play a role 13 Photo credits: J. Meehan, US Fish and Wildlife Service

14. Atmospheric levels of green house gases increased strongly since the 1750’s Illustrationcredits: Forster et al. 2007 (chapter 2, workinggroup 1, IPCC 2007), FrequentlyAskedQuestion 2.1, Figure 1

15. Looking even further back in time: current CO2 levels extremely high Illustrationcredits: NOAA (National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration)

16. Emissions to air • Greenhouse gases Contents Intro climate change The Earth’s climate system Is the climate changing? What’s causing this? Man or nature? What are the consequences? The role of shipping - contribution to the problem and to the solution 16 Illustration and photocredits: UNEP - GRID Arendal/ Green Award Foundation

17. 5. Future developments and consequences very uncertain • Due to complexity of biophysical processes on Earth • Many processes happen at the same time • Some processes accelerate global warming, others slow it down • Recap: there is scientific consensus about: • climate is changing • human activities are playing a role (greenhouse gases)

18. Temperatures predicted to increase further(but how much..?) Illustration credits: IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4

19. Extreme weather conditions expected to occur more frequently Climate refugee Photo credits: NASA Earth Observatory Collection / Mohammad Rakibul, Marine Photobank

20. Changes in distribution and behavior of animal and plant species across the globe • This can interfere with timing of interlinked biological processes • Species decline or may even become extinct puffin Polar bear cod Photo credits: Donna Dewhurst, US Fish and Wildlife Service / Peter van der Wolf, Ecomare / Kathy Crane, NOAA Arctic Research Program

21. Flooding of land-areas Bangladesh maldives Photo credits: Jashim Salam / NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (both at Marine Photobank )

22. Human health consequences Examples: • injury due to extreme weather events (e.g. heat exhaustion) • changes in geographical distribution of diseases Malaria mosquitos Photo credits: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

23. Consequences for the marine environment Increased CO2 storage in oceans: Ocean acidification • Negative impacts shell-forming organisms Increased sea water temperatures: Coral bleaching • corals release their algae • deadly if prolonged Phytoplankton declines Lower nutrient supply Bleached coral phytoplankton Photo credits: David Burdick, NOAA / Dr. Yaqin "Judy" Li, Milford Laboratory/NEFSC, NMFS/NOAA

24. Emissions to air • Greenhouse gases Contents Intro climate change The Earth’s climate system Is the climate changing? What’s causing this? Man or nature? What are the consequences? The role of shipping - contribution to the problem and to the solution 24 Illustration and photocredits: UNEP - GRID Arendal/ Green Award Foundation

25. 6. Worldwide, international shipping emits 2.7% of human-based CO2 by burning of fossil fuels • That’s 870 million tons • A relatively low contribution ~ 90 % of all world trade  shipping • However, attention also on shipping, because: • these emissions comparable to those of a major national economy (ICS 2009) • international shipping produces more CO2 than all air transport Illustrationcredits: IMO Green House Gas Study 2009

26. Shipping produces relatively little CO2per traveled distance of transported cargo However: • not all individual ships have better CO2 efficiency than other transport modes • with increased speed of ships (containers and ferries) CO2 efficiency is lowered Illustrationcredits: IMO Green House Gas Study 2009

27. Contribution of shipping to CO2 emissions expected to increase in the future IMO (International Maritime Organization): • ‘by 2050, in the absence of policies and regulations, CO2 emissions from international shipping may become two or three times higher than current levels’ Because • world economy and global trade are growing • reefer connections consume more and more fuel Also, CO2 emissions on land are reduced faster than on sea • result = larger relative contribution

28. Regulations • Emissions to air: MARPOL Annex VI, no regulations CO2-emissions (yet) • Current policies voluntary and interim: • Labeling energy efficiency newly designed ships • operational plans for ‘using fuel wisely’ for new and existing ships • Future (?)  market-based instruments working with emission-rights (Maritime Emission Trading Scheme) Illustrationcredits: Air Pollution & ClimateSecretariat (Airclim)

29. Operational measures Ecospeed weather planning: • Adjusting to / making clever use of wind and currents voyage optimization: • planning ahead to limit the ship’s speed so that it will enter the harbor just in time. • Slow steaming reduces CO2 emissions kg of fuel per nautical mile (nautical miles per hour) Illustrationcredits: ProSea

30. Technical measures Ulstein X-bow versus normal bow • designing energy efficient ships • e.g. by changing the shapes of hulls and propellers • Using alternative power sources • low carbon fuels (e.g. LNG) • fuel cells • Renewables: solar, wind, tidal energy Credits: Illustration: Ulstein – photos: Anthony Veder / Skysails

31. Combined technical and operational measures reduce ship emissions of CO2 as much as 25–75% below current levels Source: IMO Green House Gas Study 2009