Ocean Observations for Detecting Climate Change: Society in Danger?

1. Ocean Observations for Detecting Climate Change: Society in Danger?

2. Global temperatures have been much higher in the geological past

3. However, human civilization formed during a very stable period of Earth’s climate 1000 Thousands of Years Before Present (2015 CE)

4. Climate change is already impacting our society today

5. COMFORT will close knowledge gaps for key ocean tipping elements within the Earth system under anthropogenic physical and chemical climate forcing It focuses on the triple threat of (1) warming, (2) deoxygenation, and (3) ocean acidification, and how to optimally deal with this threat.

6. IPCC Special Report Released 25 September 2019 • Over the 21st century, the ocean is projected to transition to unprecedented conditions with: • increased temperatures (virtually certain) • more marine heatwaves (very high confidence) • greater upper ocean stratification (very likely) • altered net primary production (low confidence) • oxygen decline (medium confidence) • further acidification (virtually certain) • more extreme El Niño and La Niña events (medium confidence) • Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to weaken (very likely) The rates and magnitudes of these changes will be smaller under scenarios with low greenhouse gas emissions (very likely).

7. Global Energy Storage Atmospheric Warming accounts for about 1% of energy storage ~275 ZJ of additional solar energy have been stored in the earth system over the last 40 years Melting Ice (including Arctic sea ice) accounts for ~3% of energy storage Warming Land accounts for ~3% of energy storage

8. Global Energy Storage Ocean Warming accounts for about ~93% of total energy storage The heat we are putting in the ocean will be trapped there for many thousands of years

9. Surface Ocean Temperatures are Warming increased temperatures (virtually certain)

10. 2015 Warming Anomaly in the North Pacific had a Dramatic Impact on Marine Ecosystems and Weather A “Godzilla” El Nino could end a drought-worsening weather pattern affecting California. A persistent mass of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska has kept wet storms away from California in recent years and has caused a growing “blob” of warmer ocean temperatures in the northeast Pacific Ocean. (Paul Duginski, Aug 2015 LA Times)

11. Is a New “Blob” Forming in the North Pacific? more marine heatwaves (very high confidence)

12. Multi-Century Decline (10±7%) of Subarctic Atlantic Productivity altered net primary production (low confidence) top: standardized (z-score units relative to ad 1958-2016) indices of Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR)-based diatom, dinoflagellate and coccolithophore relative-abundances; North Atlantic [chlorophyll-α] reconstruction from Boyce et al. (2010, Nature); ice core-based [MSA] PC1 productivity index. The “Industrial Onset” range shows the estimated initiation of declining subarctic Atlantic productivity; reconstructed (Rahmstorf et al., 2015, Nat. Clim. Change) and observed sea-surface temperature-based Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (i.e., AMOC) index, alongside 5-year averaged subarctic Atlantic freshwater storage anomalies (relative to A.D. 1955) from Curry and Mauritzen (2005; Science) From: Osman et al. (2019) Nature 569, 551–555

13. Net Primary Productivity Anomaly (2004 - 2000) altered net primary production (low confidence) Green = Increase Red = Decrease Credit: NASA images by Jesse Allen, based on data provided by Robert O’Malley, Oregon State University.

14. Net Primary Productivity Anomaly (2004 - 2000) greater upper ocean stratification (very likely) Green = Increase Red = Decrease Credit: NASA images by Jesse Allen, based on data provided by Robert O’Malley, Oregon State University.

15. Oxygen Decline (medium confidence) Oxygen change in the ocean. Observational estimate of the 50yr (1960 to 2010) oxygen change in the upper (0-1,200m) and deep (1,200m – sea floor) ocean in micromole per kilogram per decade (µmol/kg/decade). Data are taken from Schmidtko et al. (2017). Lines indicate boundaries of oxygen minimum zones with less than 80 µmol/kg of oxygen anywhere within the water column (dash-dotted), less than 40 µmol/kg (dashed) and less than 20 µmol/kg (solid). Modified from: Oschlies, et al. (2018)

16. Further Acidification (virtually certain)

17. 152 billion metric tons of human-derived carbon is stored in the ocean Measurement-Based Inventory Change Estimates Confirm An Average Global Uptake Rate of 2.6+/-0.3 PgC/yr between 1994 and 2007 From: Gruber et al., Science, 2019

18. Ocean Acidification is Impacting Marine Organisms Results from 228 studies There are winners and losers with OA, but most lab studies suggest more negative impacts than positive Regardless, OA will alter marine ecosystems as we know them Organisms that produce calcium carbonate shells and skeletons (e.g. corals, oysters, clams) will be strongly affected Koeker et al., 2013

19. COMFORT will close knowledge gaps for key ocean tipping elements within the Earth system under anthropogenic physical and chemical climate forcing It focuses on the triple threat of (1) warming, (2) deoxygenation, and (3) ocean acidification, and how to optimally deal with this threat. COMFORT aims to: Identify climate-induced ocean tipping points and attribute them to processes. Quantify related impacts and establish multi-dimensional safe operating spaces. Provide respective mitigation targets and options, as well as projected mitigation pathways. Integrate stakeholder knowledge and provide new results including data to users.

20. Time of Emergence Climate model simulations suggest a 30- to 100-year delay in the emergence of some effects, suggesting that ocean observation programs should be maintained for many decades into the future to effectively monitor the changes occurring in the ocean. Schlunegger et al. (2019) Nature Climate Change9, 719–725

21. Observations are Critical to Document Unprecedented Change Recommendations from 140 Community White Papers & sessions: in synthetizing phase by OO19 Program Committee with help from volunteers of the community to feed the OO19 LIVING ACTION PLAN • Focus on addressing critical human needs, scientific understandingof the ocean and the linkages to the climate system, andreal time ocean information services • Integrate fromcoast to the deep ocean, across all aspects of the marine biome, disease vectors, pollutants, and exchanges of energy, chemicals and biology at the boundaries between the ocean and air, sea floor, land, ice, freshwater, and human populated areas • Ensure that all elements of the observing system are interoperable and that data are managed wisely, guided by open data policies and that data are shared in a timely manner • Harness the creativity of the academic research and engineering communities, and work in partnership with the private and public sectors to evolve sensors and platforms, better integrate observations, revolutionize information products about the ocean, and increase efficiency and reduce costs at each step of the ocean observing value chain

22. Community White Papers Bibliographiccouplinganalysis Resilience, adaptation Citizen science Brainstorming/exchanges Marine security Modelling forecasts/operational oceanography Deep ocean New initiatives Data integration Regional integrated observing systems New integration actions • Across geographic areas • Across disciplines and objectives • Across stakeholders Best practices Observing innovation Remote sensing Climate Marine biodiversity Governance Acidification Courtesy of F. Lombard Air-sea fluxes Regional/Ocean observatories

23. Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas www.socat.info 260 290 320 350 380 410 440 (µatm) v2019 new v2019 all 1957-2017 A-E, V5 • Global synthesis products of surface ocean fCO2(fugacity of CO2) in • a uniform format with quality control; No gap filling; Annual public releases; • SOCATv2019 • Released on 18/06/2019 • 25.7 million fCO2 values from 1957-2019, accuracy < 5 μatm • Plus 1.7 million sensor data, accuracy < 10 μatm • SOCATv2020 • Data submission by 15/01/2020 • Quality control by 31/03/2020 (Pfeil et al., 2013; Sabine et al., 2013; Bakker et al., 2014, 2016, ESSD)

25. Ocean Acidification from SOCAT Annual surface ocean pH change for 1991 to 2011 per biome pH change (year-1) -0.003 -0.002 -0.001 0 Combine SOCAT fCO2 with salinity-derived alkalinity. Global surface ocean pH decreases by 0.002 year-1 from 1991 to 2011. SOCAT enables quantification of regional trends in surface ocean pH. (Feely et al., 2009; Lauvset et al., 2015 BG)

26. Observations Are Just One Part of an Integrated Approach Societal benefit from actionable information Policy, public and private management and individual decisions System requirements Applications/products, knowledge challenges, phenomena, EOVs, network design Assessing Policy-relevant scientific assessments Services [informing] Early warning, forecasts, short and long term direct advice Understanding Scientific analysis, indicators Data systems Assembly and dissemination Observations Coordination In situ and satellite observations Global networks and global approaches Predicting / Modeling Ocean forecast systems www.ioccp.og/foo

27. What is at risk and what can we do?

28. Thank You for Your Time

29. Oceanscape.org is a community effort to identify the numerous organisations (including projects, programmes, and other structures) working in the “ocean space”, and to clarify the connections between them (as well as identifying opportunities to make connections where none exist). Launched at OceanObs19 to serve a variety of stakeholders

30. IPCC Special Report 2019