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Land Use/Cover

Land Use/Cover. We work with a lot of acronyms (common language) RAMS Regional Atmospheric Modeling Systems LTM Land Transformation Model MABEL Agent based model RPS Role Playing Simulation BBN Bayesian Belief Network. LUCC Modeling. What case studies provide us

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Land Use/Cover

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  1. Land Use/Cover • We work with a lot of acronyms (common language) • RAMS Regional Atmospheric Modeling Systems • LTM Land Transformation Model • MABEL Agent based model • RPS Role Playing Simulation • BBN Bayesian Belief Network

  2. LUCC Modeling • What case studies provide us • Develop surrogate variables • Populate MABEL and LTM • Get output • Assess output using case studies and expert judgment • Urban system modeling that includes changes in demand fxn or preferences • Do we need to have one common methodological approach in the social science?

  3. LUCC Modeling • Why do we use models? • What are they supposed to tell us? • If they do not perform well, is this important? • When do we NOT use models?

  4. LUCC Case Studies • LUCC Drivers Behave Differently • Land tenure changes are huge triggers • Population and economic changes affected land use change slowly; many years in some cases • Magnitude of the driver (not well pronounced does affect change) • Coincidence important as well (synergistic effects) • Need to understand coping strategies which are complicated an involve risk and past experiences

  5. LUCC Modeling • Important Issues • We need to make sure that we focus our attention on those variables that are likely to result in cover changes • We also need to determine what the time steps will be for the coupling of climate and land. We recognize that each region may operate on different coupling mechanisms

  6. LUCC Modeling • Methods that are important • How much do we change land cover to force regional climate? • Do we look at the “book ends” of land cover change possibilities • Should we conduct sensitivity analysis to determine magnitude of interaction? • How does a tightly versus loosely coupled climate-land modeling system, differ?

  7. LUCC Modeling • What are cross correlations between regional changes that are linked somehow (economically)

  8. Scenarios • General versus specific • Top down versus bottom up approach • Three levels of complexity approach 1. Met LTM  LC for RAMS 2. Regional LTM/Expert System (?NPP) 3. Case studies (compare and contrast) using MABEL and LTM (learning exercises) 4. Reactions to outputs (RPS, grp interviews)

  9. Other issues • Define bookends clearly • Define land cover classes that we need to model. To consider are: • Inputs to land change • Outputs that are important for cliamte inputs

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