Ending the Fossil Fuel Addiction: What will it Take?

1. Dr. Kyle Forinash Professor of Physics School of Natural Sciences Indiana University Southeast New Albany, IN,USA Ending the Fossil Fuel Addiction: What will it Take? Now!!

2. The Fundamental Problem?

5. US: 300 metric tons of fossil fuel per second!

7. Energy Information Administration Projections(28% Increase by 2040, World) EJ OECD = Organization for Economic Co-operation 

9. We are All in this Together

10. IPCC

11. What are the expected effects of this extra CO2? • According to the laws of physics: More trapping of heat (so called green house effect).

12. But can we validate the calculations? Why do we think they are right? • Calculations are correct for recent past (100 years) climate.

13. But can we validate the calculations? Why do we think they are right? • Calculations are correct for recent past (100 years) climate. • We get the right answers for other planets (Mars, Venus, Titan, upper layers of Jupiter).

14. But can we validate the calculations? Why do we think they are right? • Calculations are correct for recent past (100 years) climate. • We get the right answers for other planets (Mars, Venus, Titan, upper layers of Jupiter). • There are natural experiments in the distant past that corroborate the calculations.

15. But can we validate the calculations? Why do we think they are right? • Calculations are correct for recent past (100 years) climate. • We get the right answers for other planets (Mars, Venus, Titan, upper layers of Jupiter). • There are natural experiments in the distant past that corroborate the calculations. • Recent data.

17. Is there a Lot of Fossil Fuel Left?

19. Hubbert: A Peak in US Oil?

20. Is Hubbert Right? Yes and No! Physics Today

21. to 2015

22. Sample Hubbert Results

23. Smil

25. Energy Returned on Energy Invested

26. What do We Use Fossil Fuels For?(and can we reduce this) • 81% of all primary energy globally is fossil fuel (14% renewable, 5% nuclear). • Industry accounts for 1/4 of world energy use: • Combined heat and power (CHP) systems can be 85% efficient. • Buildings (lighting, heating, cooling, refrigeration, hot water, appliances) account for 1/3 of world energy use: • Low emissivity window coatings (5% US total energy lost in 1973). • Buildings exist which are heated entirely from internal processes (no furnace). • Advanced lighting (50% efficiency possible). • Appliance improvements. BUT!

27. Refrigerators vs Personal Electronics Refrigerators since 1970: Increase in efficiency by 75% Drop in price by 60% Increase in volume by 20% on average • Physics Today

28. Refrigerators vs Personal Electronics Refrigerators since 1970: Increase in efficiency by 75% Drop in price by 60% Increase in volume by 20% on average • Physics Today

29. Transportation Accounts for 28% of the Energy Used in the U.S.

30. Gasoline Will be Hard to Replace

31. Plant Oil as a Fuel? • -> US transportation consumption (2014): 28 EJ • -> Energy production, all arable land in the US cultivated with soybeans (bio-diesel): 25.6 EJ

32. Rail is 4× more efficient than trucks for freight Rail is 12× more efficient than cars for passengers

33. The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics

34. The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics

35. 60% 2nd Law Loss

36. Where Does Your $1 of Gas Go? 4% idling loss 3% transmission loss 74% heat loss 3% acceleration 3% accessories 6% rolling friction 7% air drag

37. How Many New Power Plants to Convert to Electric Vehicles? • Assuming a 50% efficient electric car we need 10.8 EJ of primary energy to replace our 20% efficient gasoline cars.

38. How Many New Power Plants to Convert to Electric Vehicles? • Assuming a 50% efficient electric car we need 10.8 EJ of primary energy to replace our 20% efficient gasoline cars. • For a 1,000 MW power plant (coal, gas or nuclear) operating at 80% capacity this is 450 new plants (current US total is 950 plants).

39. How Many New Power Plants to Convert to Electric Vehicles? • Assuming a 50% efficient electric car we need 10.8 EJ of primary energy to replace our 20% efficient gasoline cars. • For a 1,000 MW power plant (coal, gas or nuclear) operating at 80% capacity this is 450 new plants (current US total is 950 plants). • For a 2MW windmill operating at 40% capacity this is about 452,000 windmills.

40. How Many New Power Plants to Convert to Electric Vehicles? • Assuming a 50% efficient electric car we need 10.8 EJ of primary energy to replace our 20% efficient gasoline cars. • For a 1,000 MW power plant (coal, gas or nuclear) operating at 80% capacity this is 450 new plants (current US total is 950 plants). • For a 2MW windmill operating at 40% capacity this is about 452,000 windmills. • For 20% efficient solar panels this is 21,400 km2(the size of New Hampshire).

41. So what kind of car should I buy?

43. What About Renewables?

44. Available Renewable Energy (*food crops, grassy and woody plants, residues from agriculture or forestry, organic component of municipal and industrial wastes, fumes from landfills)

45. Land area needed to supply all energy used, with solar* or wind†(*20% efficiency solar cell, 50% storage and transmission loss.)(†2MW windmill, 30% load factor)

46. Pollutants per kWh Electricity Production(includes fuel cycle and construction of the plant)

47. Dollar per MWh for Electricity (2018)

48. Death and cancer rates much lower for nuclear than coal, oil or natural gas use per kWh. France gets ~75% of electricity from nuclear (19.6% for the US, 17% for world in 2003). 'Inherently safe' reactors (pebble bed, modular design, few moving parts, smaller). The radioactive waste problem (vitrification, fuel recycling). Fusion: First reactor by 2050? Nuclear Choices

49. So What do We Do? Energy Conservation.

50. So What do We Do? Energy Conservation. Switch to electricity when possible.