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Impact Assessment in the Face of a Changing Climate

Explore the interaction between climate change and impact assessment, discussing climate change impacts and the role of impact assessment in addressing them. Discover the challenges and importance of considering climate change in impact assessments.

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Impact Assessment in the Face of a Changing Climate

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Presentation Transcript

  1. SEA of a problem: climate change Miguel Coutinho, Raquel Pinho and Carlos Borrego

  2. Objectives • Discuss the interaction between climate change and impact assessment • Climate change impacts • Climate change in impact assessment • What is the role of impact assessment? • IA might be an important prevention tool • Climate change must be taken into account in IA

  3. Assessing climate change in IA is different from assessing other effects • First, climate change is one of the most significant and complex cumulative effects: • it is due to the accumulation of many actions, each of which has only a limited impact but all of which together cause serious effects. • Second, in climate change there are two sets of impacts to contend with: • the effect of the plan on future emissions of greenhouse gases • the impact/constraints set by climate change on the plan

  4. Mitigation Majour scientific emphasis Proves it! “climate change is real” To reduce greenhouse emissions To increase CO2 storage capacity Adaptation Reaction to climate change impacts Evolutionary concept Distribution boundaries of species travel North Can be confused with: Impacts of climate change IPCC terminology

  5. Impacts An integrated framework

  6. Challenges • Are our Impact Assessments still valid after the climate has changed? • Are we prepared to estimate environmental changes caused by our project in a self-changing environment? • How do we include time in our assessment?

  7. Future will be my project… Pressure over environment Time (years)

  8. Future will be several projects Pressure over environment Time (years)

  9. Time variable • Business as usual (BAU) • Moderate growth • Optimistic scenario (2 - 3 x more) • Pessimistic scenario • Lower growth • Or negative growth… • Future might be different from BAU…

  10. Future is multi-dimensional and dinamic Pressure over environment Time (years)

  11. Climate and social systems are non-linear • There is no reason to believe that changes will occur in an incremental way • Future crisis might be a result of systems that are already stressed to the max • An exogenous shock on an already highly stressed system might produce a overshoot situation. • Thomas Homer-Dixon, 2006

  12. Pressure over environment Time (years) Future with ruptures

  13. What do we need? • Better spatial distribution of climate change and its effects • One World • Portugal ≠ South Korea • Portugal ≠ Sweden • Portugal ≠ Italy • Porto ≠ Lisbon • Local impacts • Urban scale

  14. What do we need? • Understand the time scales of climate change effects • Extreme events • Heat waves (now) • Wet gets wetter (1-10 yrs) • Dry gets dryier (1-10 yrs) • Sea level rise (10-50 years) • Weather patterns • meteorological circulations (20-100 years) • Greenland ice sheet melting (1000 years)

  15. IA + Climate Change • EIA (adaptation) • Identify adequate mitigation measures • SEA (adaptation + mitigation) • Identify adequate development strategies • SEA of Climate Change • The new P: Problem • Holistic approach • Strategic approach

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