Chapter Two APPLYING SCIENTIFIC THINKING TO MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS

1. Chapter TwoAPPLYING SCIENTIFIC THINKING TO MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS

2. Outline • Style of Thinking Sources of Knowledge • The Thought Process : Reasoning Deduction, Induction, Combining D&I, Reflective Thought and the Scientific Method • The Scientific Attitude • Understanding Theory : Components and Connections Concepts, Constructs, Definitions, Variables, Propositions and Hypotheses, Theory, Models

3. Empiricism(觀察實驗主義 實證主義) • To denote observations and propositions based on sense experience and/or derived from such experience by methods of inductive logic, including mathematics and statistics. • Empiricists attempt to describe, explain, and make predictions by relying on information gained through observation.

4. Idealism(理想主義 唯心論) • 表現完美的境界而不問是否與現實相符. • 多數的文學作品傾向於此 • 每個人或多或少都有此傾向

5. Rationalism(理性主義) • the belief that all knowledge can be deduced from known laws or basic truths of nature • From the time of Sir Francis Bacon to the present, adherents of rationalism have maintained that problems are best understood and resolved through formal logic or mathematics. Such efforts, of course, operate independently of observation and data collection

6. Existentialism(存在主義) • 存在主義是西方哲學理性主義的反動，傳統理性主義認為人 有本質，以亞理士多德為代表，本質就是理性，人都要趨向這本質。即是有一個模型先存在， 人都要依照這模型方式做人。這是所謂「本質先於存在」。存在主義就是反對這種定義了人的 方式，認為人的本質不是預先定好的，人是自由的，人的本質是要自己創造的。你如何存在， 這存在便是你的本質，才是人的本質。因此說「存在先於本質」。 • 尼采 沙特 等

7. Sources of Knowledge • Empiricists attempt to describe, explain, and make predictions through observation • Rationalists believe all knowledge can be deduced from known laws or basic truths of nature • Authorities serve as important sources of knowledge, but should be judged on integrity and willingness to present a balanced case

8. Styles of Thinking • Untested opinion “That’s the way we’ve always done it here” Historically, myth, superstition, and hunch have been serious competitors for scientific thinking • Self-evident truth “Everyone drives on the right side of the world” “Women make inferior managers.” “Men of noble birth are natural leaders.” “Red-Light Traffic Sign”

9. Styles of Thinking • Method of Authority Authorities serve as important sources of knowledge, but should be judged on integrity and willingness to present a balanced case. Too often authority may depend on status or position rather on true expertise • Literary Style The literary style of thinking is used in many classic case studies in the social science. Because it is difficult to generalize from individual case studies, the literary style of thought restricts our ability to derive generally applicable knowledge or truths.

10. Styles of Thinking • Scientific Method “Current scientific methods wed the best aspects of the logic of rational approach with the observational aspects of the empirical orientation into a cohesive, systematic perspective.” • Postulational Style Some studies in OR and marketing are often postulational. For example, many firms run computer simulations of their market before a product rollout. (Exhibit 2-1)

11. The Essential Tenets of Science • Direct observation of phenomena • Clearly defined variables, methods, and procedures • Empirically testable hypotheses • Ability to rule out rival hypotheses • Statistical justification of conclusions • Self-correcting process

12. Exhibit 2-1

13. The Thought Process: ReasoningWays to Communicate • Exposition • descriptive statements that merely state and do not give reason • Argument • allows us to explain, interpret, defend, challenge, and explore meaning Two types of argument of great importance to research are deduction and induction.

14. Important Arguments in Research • Deduction is a form of inference that purports to be conclusive – the conclusion must necessarily follow from the reasons given. • Induction draws conclusions from one or more particular facts or pieces of evidence. The conclusion explains the facts, and the facts support the conclusions.

15. Important Arguments in Research • Deduction is the process by which we arrive at a reasoned conclusion by logically generalizing from a known fact. • Induction is a process where we observe certain phenomena and on this basis arrive at conclusions. In other words, in induction we logically establish a general proposition based on observed facts. “The nature of induction, however, is that the conclusion is only a hypothesis.”

16. Deduction (演繹) • (P1) All regular employees can be trusted not to steal. • (P2) John is a regular employee. • (C) John can be trusted not to steal. • (P1) Inner-city household interviewing is especially difficult and expensive. • (P2) This survey involves substantial inner-city household interviewing. • (C) The interviewing in this survey will be especially difficult and expensive.

17. Induction (歸納) • “Light bulb burns out” case • To induce is to draw a conclusion from one or more particular facts or pieces of evidence. • The conclusion explains the facts, and the facts support the conclusion. • The nature of induction, however, is that the conclusion is only a hypothesis. • It is one explanation, but there are others that fit the facts just as well.

18. Induction (歸納) • Fact: “Sales did not increase during or after the promotional campaign.” • Ask: “Why didn’t sales increase ?” • One likely conclusion (by experience): “The promotional campaign was poorly executed.” • Others: “Regional retailers did not have sufficient stock”, “A strike by the employees of our trucking firm”, “Hurricane (or typhoon)”.

19. Induction (歸納) • The inductive conclusion is an inferential jump beyond the evidence presented. • One conclusion explains the fact, other conclusions also can explain the fact. • It may even be that none of the conclusions we advanced correctly explain the fact.

20. Combined deduction and induction • “double movement of reflective thought” • Exhibit 2-2 • Exhibit 2-3

21. Reflective Thought and the Scientific Method • Induction and deduction, observation, and hypothesis testing can be combined in a systematic way to illustrate the scientific method. • They are particularly appropriate for researchers whose conclusions depend on empirical data. • 8 items on page 40

22. Scientific Attitude • If the tools of thinking are the mind of science, then the scientific attitude is the spirit. • The scientific attitude unleashes the creative drive that makes discovery possible. • Imagination, intuition, curiosity, suspicion, anguish, the rage to know, self-doubt.

23. Hawthorne Studies • Productivity vs. Worker Satisfaction • Scientific Management vs. Behavioral Research

24. Understanding Theory: Components and ConnectionsThe Building Blocks of Theory • Concepts • Constructs • Definitions • Variables • Propositions and Hypotheses • Theories • Models

25. Understanding Concepts • A concept is a bundle of meanings or characteristics associated with certain events, objects, conditions, situations, and behaviors • Concepts have been developed over time through shared usage • Concrete: dog or table Abstract : leadership, personality, motivation, etc. Such abstract concepts are often called constructs.

26. Understanding Concepts • The success of research hinges on: • how clearly we conceptualize • how well others understand the concepts we use Table vs. Personality

27. What is a Construct? • A construct is an image or idea specifically invented for a given research and/or theory-building purpose. • Exhibit 2-4

28. Operational Definition • a definition for a variable stated in terms of specific testing criteria or operations, specifying what must be counted, measured, or gathered through our senses. • Freshman, Sophomore, Junior, Senior • Beauty • Achievement

29. Types of Variables • Independent • Dependent • Moderating • Extraneous • Intervening

30. Independent and Dependent Variables • Researchers are most interested in relationships among variables. • Does a participative leadership style influence job satisfaction ? • Researchers hypothesize relationships of independence and dependence: They invent them, and then they try by reality testing to see if the relationships actually work out that way.

31. Independent and Dependent Variables New Product Success Stock Market Price Independent Variable Dependent Variable

32. Independent and Dependent Variables Number of books Reading abilities Independent variable Dependent variable

33. Moderating Variables(干擾變數或情境變數) • a second independent variable, believed to have a significant contributory or contingent effect on the originally stated IV-DV relationship; notation: MV. • The introduction of the four-day workweek will lead to higher productivity. • The introduction of the four-day workweek will lead to higher productivity, especially among younger workers. • Whether a given variable is treated as an independent or as a moderating variable depends on the hypothesis.

34. Moderating Variables(干擾變數或情境變數) Number of books Reading abilities Independent variable Dependent variable Parents’ literacy Moderating variable

35. Moderating Variables(干擾變數或情境變數) Willingness to learn Training programs Growth needs

36. Moderating Variables(干擾變數或情境變數) Effects for those high in growth needs Willingness to learn Effects for those low in growth needs Training programs

37. ExtraneousVariables(外生變數或外在變數) • variables to assume (because they have little affect, or their impact is randomized) or exclude from a research study. • In routine office work, the introduction of the four-day workweek will lead to higher productivity, especially among younger workers.

38. InterveningVariables(中介變數) • a factor that affects the observed phenomenon but cannot be seen, measured, or manipulated, thus its effect must be inferred from the effects of the independent and moderating variables on the dependent variable. • the introduction of the four-day workweek will lead to higher productivity by increasing job satisfaction.

39. InterveningVariables(中介變數) Time: t1 t2 t3 Workforce diversity Creative synergy Organizational effectiveness Independent variable Intervening variable Dependent variable

40. InterveningVariables(中介變數) t1 t2 t3 Workforce diversity Creative synergy Organizational effectiveness Independent variable Intervening variable Dependent variable Managerial expertise Moderating variable

41. Theoretical Framework (1) Communication among cockpit members Communication between ground control and cockpit Air-safety violations Decentralization Dependent variable Training of cockpit crew Independent variable

42. Theoretical Framework (2) Communication among cockpit members Communication between ground control and cockpit Air-safety violations Decentralization Dependent variable Nervousness and diffidence Training of cockpit crew Independent variable Intervening variable

43. Theoretical Framework (3) Communication among cockpit members Communication between ground control and cockpit Air-safety violations Decentralization Dependent variable Training Independent variable Moderating variable

44. Propositions and Hypotheses • We define a proposition as a statement about concepts that may be judged as true or false if it refers to observable phenomena. • When a proposition is formulated for empirical testing, we call it a hypothesis

45. Propositions and Hypotheses • Dr. Chen has a higher-than-average achievement motivation. • Faculty members at Dept. of Information Management, NTUST, have a higher-than-average achievement motivation.

46. Descriptive Hypotheses • American cities are experiencing budget difficulties. • Answer to question. • Q: “Are American cities experiencing budget difficulties ?” • Q: “What is the unemployment rate in Detroit ?” • These are propositions that typically state the existence, size, form, or distribution of some variable.

47. Relational Hypotheses • Describe a relationship between two variable with respect to some cases. • Correlational hypotheses People in southern Taiwan give President Chen a more favorable rating than do people in northern Taiwan. • Explanatory (causal) hypotheses An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income saved. (direction should be considered)

48. Theoretical Framework Among Variables MANAGEMENT STYLE People-Oriented H3 H2 USER PARTICIPATION H1 SYSTEM SUCESS H2 H3 Task-Oriented From Paper Reading Assignment 1

49. The Role of the Hypothesis • Guides the direction of the study • Identifies facts that are relevant • Suggests which form of research design is appropriate • Provides a framework for organizing the conclusions that result

50. What is a Good Hypothesis? • A good hypothesis should fulfill three conditions: • Must be adequate for its purpose • Must be testable • Must be better than its rivals • See Exhibit 2-6 for details